Member Info for Cliostock

Shychap well said

The market obviously dislikes the uncertainty around the interims after previously being excited for them. I’m one of the investors on the board that have been relaxed about news this year, not particularly bothered about anything in Jan, Feb or March, hoping other bits and pieces can create momentum around the Croda launch, but this interims situation is fairly poor. They have to come out by the 31st, last year there was 2 weeks notice. Why give a signal to the market that the interims might be late Stuart?

I think OPTI discussion is relevant on this board where comparisons to SBTX are present.

The rest was not ignored as such. Noted. But I couldn’t care less about the BB politics and simply have nothing much to add on the matter. 👍

Nick

No I don’t hold OPTI, I came to SBTX for the quality of the skin based science, unlike many that came from over there originally. I can’t see the investment case for OPTI at all, it’s always baffled me. From my outsiders point of view it looks like SOH is playing businessman. He has made some good moves over the years that keep him in the game but without those there would be no business and the benefit of those are finite, such as spinning out SBTX, the share sales won’t last forever.

“or sold down to reduce the need to fundraise in a volatile market”

That says it all to me. How about create a core business that works and doesn’t need outside capital to keep you in a job? He’s spinning it out until he retires. Polar opposite to Ashman.

Great to hear about the increasing Amazon sales Nick, hopefully that will transfer to a positive statement in the interim results out soon. Even better to hear a change of tack from recent conversation!

Net C, do you know what a balance sheet is and how it differs from a P&L?

Netcurtains, I believe a couple of years ago Croda sold a crop fertilising division or similar for around 800m cash. I haven’t looked at their accounts nor even read the latest RNS but unless anything major has happened in the meantime, they could pay your £90m suggestion for SBTX and not even feel it. Although I do disagree with the £90m, these shares do move quick when they move and a bonafide approach from Croda would send the shares flying. Furthermore, shareholders couldn’t consider an offer without knowing what we were selling so they would have to release information about the lysate which it seems is against Croda’s wishes at this time.

On a related note, don’t be so sure on counting on SA to resist a bid; it is often a clause in contracts that mean share options crystallise in the event of a takeover regardless of performance.

Net C, looks like the Luceane ingredient mentions a strain I’ve not heard of in relation to Skinbiotix. I think the SphingoCare is the most similar ingredient on that list, but I still don’t get the sense it’s that. Which begs the question, why not? Are they really planning something huge close to the launch, hence the NDA? If it’s not that, I really can’t see the plan. On the other hand, if the Skinbiotix featured on that list in the middle of 8 other products it may be slightly disappointing.

Martinu, you would have expected SA to be aware of the payment terms when he stated receipt of revenue this calendar year, so it shouldn’t impinge on it, but I get your thought process. In fact the longer the payment terms, the more in advance SA should have been able to guarantee the receipt of revenue. If they are on 90 days and SA said in November (for example) that the money was coming, he should be pretty nailed on because the invoice would have already been produced. What ever the payment terms, the clock starts ticking on the date of invoice.

Exactly TC. Just because you don’t believe doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do what you can to preserve things, which is all the other side of the argument is asking!

Bazzao I think you’re right and SA says as much in the latest IMCs. Nothing in Q1 or Q2 this year but there are discussions going on with other companies which are a strategic fit and which have products which could be made by BTS.

I believe Acne will turn out to be a great product. I think lots of lessons have been learned on PS, as well as route to market knowledge. It’s got a wider sales appeal too. If that product can do even slightly better than PS is doing now, then combined there will be a reasonable income.

Add in the Croda income even if in the early millions, which it won’t be because SBTX could have done a licensing deal with an individual brand for more that than from day 1.

Considering only those main points, a £41m market cap would be a complete joke. It can’t possibly be.

Then there also has to be a good opportunity for SBTX to create its own brand of cream using the lysate, as allowed in the agreement. Done well this could easily create us a small business valued at the same as BTS but without having to buy it.

What are the other results of the advanced studying. Could there be a suncream deal? A wound care deal? A toothpaste deal? A multinational deal for Axis?

Does this hold the potential for SBTX to be £100m again? And surely beyond. It’s at this point I would start to worry the above work is too much for one man and his accountant to do in an efficient timeframe. I think another thing that could influence the SP at this stage is some in-house professional assistance for SA on these opportunities. It doesn’t have to be a 400k liability, it could be 50k and a bonus scheme job to concentrate on creating a skin cream brand, or focus on taking Axis of Stuart’s plate. I think the market would respond well to that.

I’m also sorry Toyin to hear you feel that way currently. You’ve been a beacon of positive light during many a dark moment over the last couple of years. I think I’ve given up on the emotions. I’ve been waiting for something tangible to come from this company for about 5 years now and I feel fairly sure it’s imminent, so although on the ramp ish side I do feel Dustbins points are not at all daft, just reasonably optimistic. If what he is saying doesn’t come this year, I’ll pick you up on my way to the next AGM!

Toyin, in the latest IMCs and RNSs, when it has been said that it is great news that we see revenue from around now and implying we should be grateful to Croda that it’s not two years later, I get an incredible sense of someone urinating on me and telling me it’s raining. I think you’ve just summarised why I get such a feeling…

You’re both right.

Toyin talks of reality, which is where we sit right now. The company is doing nothing to assist the share price, and therefore the interests of shareholders. I don’t doubt there is lots of work going on behind the scenes on all pillars, but the lack of communication isn’t helping the SP.

Dustbin talks of the potential, and SBTX is a company on the verge of fulfilling its potential. In the market that we are currently in, investors want to see tangible progress before investing. In a different market we may be speculatively 80p, as we were 4 years ago. If not when the news comes, we will be.

As an LTH, I’m not really fussed if SA releases information on Acne or we see a Skinbiotix end user product launch next week or next month, or April. I’m satisfied it’s coming. I’m frustrated by SA saying he would have to inform the market when revenues were received, and then just not bothering. It feels extremely unprofessional of him to say something and then not do it, especially when it’s a simple RNS. I will not hear that an NDA prevents the release of that confirmation. I understand details are prevented, but confirmation of revenue is not information that would threaten the success of the product or Croda’s position.

It’s all happening but some improvement required!

What news do you want during February Bazzaman?

Ramping it may be Dire, but Dusty doesn’t do too bad at all on the facts front. At least he presents relevant information, as opposed to opinions like most incessant rampers you see on other boards. I think the upticks he gets represents this.

I’m not particularly desperate for news at the moment personally either, Bazzaman. I know there are things cooking. I want some news to come over the next three to four months, I want it to be complete and of a high quality, and most importantly, be followed by more news shortly after that…

Exactly Dustbin. As soon as the market hears it from the company it becomes tangible, and valuable.

Dustbin, from what I have read, I think that almost everything you say is absolutely correct regarding the company and the environment of the industry as a whole. However I slightly disagree with you in that I think there are plenty of investors that are aware of the potential of the company. Granted, there could always be more, but there is no shortage of buyers in SBTX when it is on a surge, I’ve seen circa 20% rises in a day multiple times over the years. My point is, I think the watchers are just waiting for the train to start leaving the station. Once we know about acne and Croda, get to see what Ashman is planning to do with the ability to produce own products with the lysate, we have a study set to finish in June, Umesh Modi updates, potential new deals… those investors will come out of elsewhere and want to be in SBTX.

In theory we should have an RNS about each one of the above in calendar H1 2025. We were a £100m company in 2021 at the prospect of a decent Axis launch getting us to break even at a PLC level, and the hope of Geoff Bell engineering the launch of a shampoo or cream product.

The market might be different but we’re now twice the company that we hoped for previously, plenty will jump on board for the ride up to 40p and beyond. Just need Ashman to blow the whistle and say all aboard! It will come when it comes.

As far as I’m concerned news can wait for the moment. The longer we wait for acne news, the more bunched up it will be with Croda launch news and any other updates that may possibly be on the way about our acquired businesses, the research programmes or any further deals. What we need is some momentum to catch the markets eye. I don’t want to see the news wasted on 5p spikes and then retraces three months apart from each other because there is no momentum. I’d like to see the same hype that drove the SP to 75.5p on far less than we have going for us now.