Member Info for ChrisToffer

The difference is that SNG (if the trial shows benefit) will have a supporting dataset for their formulation that should hopefully stand up to scrutiny. Thats not a dataset to support the use of INF In general therefore there's added risk for governing authorities to approve INF or any other formulation, unless they go through their own trials. Itd be faster/safer to just buy the already proven formulation (hopefully SNG's).

AJ, although i wouldnt expect £2/3 on news, if SNG001 receives an EUA off the back of positive results and SNG are in position to supply millions of doses then I dont think £3 is unreasonable ahead of the winter flu season? Thats without considering COPD or licencees.

Hi Takenorisk, around the 16:45 markhttps://youtu.be/npEFq4AiuIY he says around this time next month and that interview was done in late June.

Well let's hope they're not inconclusive and i hope you do get to average up Nolupus.

Is £1.50 off the back of positive results not a bit cheap though? Each to their own obviously and of course there are a lot of dependencies, including just how good the results are. But every time i try to look at the numbers based on successful trials, they're huge.

Forgetting COPD or licencees for a moment; If we take 'Meaningful doses' as 1 million - that being the amount that SNG are looking at being able to supply by year end (IF they get approvals). I actually think 1m is less than meaningful because it will only provide for 70k patients on a 14 day course and the yanks are hitting 60K plus new cases a day.

All SNG's interferon related peers charge a minimum of £500. That £500m revenue would surely put SNG somewhere between £3-4 by year end? The fact that they also have the COPD readout and potential to licence the product would only cement that projection, if not improve it?

Sorry if this post seems rampy but I actually think it's very conservative on the numbers. It's obviously not conservative on the trial result assumption haha

I would love a sub 30 top up! Hard to see it. I think today's movement showed that whoever is selling is doing so when it spikes up from here. Having said that I also think that if moderate to good trial results drop then it'll hardly matter a difference on THAT spike.

Nolupus, if results are good will you commit to giving us a price projection?

Personally i find it reassuring going over elements of the science. It's getting very close to results now. Only they will tell us what we want to know however i find this type of discussion helps me to hold my nerve because it really is only going 1 of 2 ways.

The clinicaltrials.gov one doesn't mention a dosing level that i can see.

Rich, would you suggest we go back talking about Eva marrying Nolupus? :D

Oh, looks like the MHRA and EU contradict each other (surprise!). If that's the case and the HRA website takes precedence then apologies Nolupus - I stand corrected!

Nolupus, I would be inclined to go with what is on the approval over what is said in an interview. If an approval were to have a discrepancy then it could undermine an entire trial.

Is the amount of inhalation not controlled by the nebuliser? From the i-neb website;

https://www.usa.philips.com/healthcare/product/HC85167/i-neb-battery-powered-drug-delivery-system
AAD delivers the right amount of medication, regardless of size or breathing patterns. It can also be adjusted per condition (if approved to do so).

Hi Jakman, i do think you're onto something there as, "data from the 109 COPD patients with confirmed viral infection generates useful safety, biomarker and potentially efficacy data to support ongoing trials of SNG001 in COVID-19 patients."

In my mind the entire dataset is improved because they have 2 different dosing levels. It may also explain why it's taking longer than usual to collate and make it all presentable.

Nolupus - interesting that even with the knowledge that Covid suppresses interferon production, they still reduced the dosing level for SG016 when they could well have gotten approval for the full dosage approved in SG015.

I mentioned earlier about the positive feedback loop that I read about. Just found it again;
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7188648/
"Notably, IFN-ß production leads to a positive feedback loop that further stimulates the expression of many of the IFN-a genes".

Spot on as always Ghia!
Thanks for clarifying Rich! I find it really interesting (and reassuring) that they've adjusted the levels between the 2 trials. I guess if its been proven safe for COPD at 12mIU then a reduction wouldn't have been as hard to make for the covid trial.

Hi Rich, am I missing something cause the Sg006 trial there shows 6mIU as well? I think SNG001 has always been 6mIU even dating back to the AZN sponsored trials in asthma.

I think my train of thought the other day when enquiring about dosing levels was to compare similarities/differences with the wuhan study to see if they were significant. The dosing levels were not massively different (6mIU compared to 10mIU per day) however it appears that the biggest difference is the type of interferon itself. That makes it harder to compare the studies, or use one as a projection for the other.

There was a question mark over the dosing level as the trial application for covid would have needed to be read across from COPD as much as possible to save time. I am confident in SNG that they wouldnt have gotten this far into 2 covid trials if they thought the levels weren't correct.

The most promising thing I did read was that beta is supposedly more effective than alpha. I even read somewhere that beta promotes interferon alpha production. Is that correct Nolupus?

Thanks Dave, yea the Wuhan trials were 5mIU however they were administered twice daily so more per day than the SG016 trial. In any case, as Nolupus pointed out, the potency difference between the interferon b and a types are substantial so hard to read too much into the 2 dosing levels.

Hopefully if we are a little low on the dosing required then it'll be compensated by the fact that Beta appears to be better at combating the virus than interferon Alpha;

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7138382/
"It was repeatedly shown that IFNß is a more potent inhibitor of coronaviruses than IFNa"

Thanks Deal3r, i never seen that link before. It seems I was being very conservative!

Morning everyone. A lot of cra@p appearing on this board. I guess it'll only get worse the closer we get to results. Thanks to all the sane contributors for keeping us informed throughout this journey. Even Nolupus for keeping me right :p

I've been trying to look at some projections for covid supplies in the event the drug is in demand post results. So SNG stated that they are looking into the supply chain to be in a position to supply millions of doses by the end of year (if results are good). Please correct me if i'm wrong here but each course is 14 days with 1 dose a day meaning that 1 million doses will only actually treat approx 70k patients. With rates on the rise in the Americas and the USA nearing 60k new cases a day alone, i think it's fair to say that 1 million (or several m) doses may not be enough.

Remdesivir (sorry i keep mentioning it but it's really the only pricing comparison I can see that we have in this current climate?), are charging c.$350 dollars a vial to developed countries and they think that's on the cheap! If we were to conservatively price SNG001 at £200 a dose then would that start to give us an idea of the kind of revenue this would be worth (to SNG or any licencees) if given an approval?

Yes Miggy I would think that the scientists know best. All we can do is speculate as best we can to inform our investments decisions.

Morning Dave,

There are some patent risks highlighted in the annual report. I guess there's nothing stopping anyone else approving the administration of interferon B-1a by nebuliser? I've seen it recommended in some UAE documents however its the supporting data that'll give them the confidence to do so on a larger scale.

SNG may well end up with (the only) really good package of supporting data to prove interferons' efficacy and safety, however its SNG001 as a formulation as opposed to interferon in general therefore it may be risky for any other authorities to approve interferon based on SNGs trial results.