RE: USE MCAP NOT SP INCREASE!21 Jul 2020 15:14
Thanks Trek and Upup for your estimates. I have to say i got a bit giddy when i read upups as I thought my own initial target of £5.80 is optimistic. Even though my own numbers belie my own target;
10% of coronavirus market share based on the amount of cases recorded to date is 1,488,493 patients who would receive 14 doses over the course of their treatment. 14 doses @ £200 a dose for that 10% is 4.1 billion. That's 21 million doses which obviously comes with it's own challenges however the UK government just ordered 90 million vaccine doses. Drop the price to £50 a dose but up the order amount to 80 million (5.7 million patients) and it gives a similar outcome.
There's obviously a lot of assumptions and dependencies in there but that all sounds plausible to me, even though the cynic in me is screaming it's too good to be true.