Member Info for ChrisToffer

Hi Joey, look up the 'Good value' thread there was an excellent post put on there first thing this morning.

Hi SanDiego, yea it was just a random number to demonstrate the effect a large licence deal or buyout would have on the SP/mcap. It's incredibly difficult to put a price on it. Is 1.5bn enough considering the US just ordered 1.9bn vaccine doses and the EU just propped up the european economy with a £750bn package?

If SNG001 were sold at £100 a dose (which i think is a low estimate compared to Rebif or Remdesivir etc) and they were to sell 40m doses that would generate 4bn in revenue. Governments are ordering 100's of millions of doses of vaccines. 40m doses would treat just under 3m patients over a 14 day course. Thats 20% of all coronavirus cases to date.

You're right that this doesn't consider cost but these are still not insane numbers in my mind. And that's without considering that this drug could combat future strains of the virus/influenza etc.

This post isn't meant as a ramp and I would genuinely appreciate them being challenged because everytime i look at them objectively they are huge.

The market is valuing the company/drug between £2-300 million. That's speculative and arguably fair until Synairgen go through the next steps to confirm by peer review, approvals and commercialise etc. It doesn't (to my mind) consider COPD which could potentially be worth several hundred million on its own.

The potential is still there and with only 149m shares in issue the upside is astronomical. For example, say the drug got bought for £4bn. That's a huge number but with everything that this drug could mean, its not an insane number.

With 149m shares in issue that's £27 a share. That really is an insane number.

Hi Henners, it really is mind boggling! RM has asked the question, "with the size of the problem and the decimation caused to countries, how do you put a price on this?"

The fact there are only 149m shares in issue means that any deal over a billion will drive the SP up dramatically.

A good point there seadoc, if anyone doubts the science behind this then have a YouTube search on Professor Holgate talking about interferon use. Then watch the webinar that held on Monday and listen to his excitement on this drug, not just for covid, but as a broad antiviral.

Crypto, it halved from 70 to 33p a month or two ago. Trust the product and ignore the SP for now.

should have said a few hundred thousand doses 'a month' is their aim. 14 doses a patient as its a 14 day course/1 puff a day.

300000 doses would treat c.21000 patients which clearly isn't enough which is why a large licencing deal, or buyout, is inevitable.

What a load of B0ll0cks

Sparkle, its not a mask, google the i-neb. RM is quoted as saying they aim to be in a position to provide a few hundred thousand doses by winter.

Hi Sparkle, its a nebuliser called an i-neb. Made by Phillips I believe.

This is manufactured and ready to go..........

If I remember correctly, there was a report came out of China a few months back from a hospital who put all of their staff on inhaled interferon as a preventative measure, to great success.

Was very telling (was a huge indicator for me) but obviously didn't carry a lot of weight internationally.

Apologies Mark if my tone suggested that, there's been a lot of nonsense on here the last few days and its easy to get defensive. Regardless of what else is out there, SNG were in a very unique position in February where they had the ongoing COPD trial so had placebo and everytbing else ready to go with this one. It'll be extremely difficult for any other competitors to get to this stage with this standard of data by winter.

Mark you're correct about speed to market but you're missing the point with regards competitors. There aren't any. So once they all realise this is the real deal, the speed to market will be driven by government and the approval agencies to try and save lives this winter.

Stage 3 trials are essential because the sample size of the covid and copd trial was not enough. As the other lads have pointed out, the drug should be safe enough for an EUA to start helping people ASAP.

I think it was the bloomberg interview where richard said that the international conversations could now be had. No reason why stage 3 can't be carried out internationally whilst trying to help as many people as the approval process will allow.

EUA 's should allow SNG and/or any licencees to get as much of the drug put there as possible to help people, whilst also continuing with the approval process.

Hes already been setting his stall out on that front. The language he used on the proactive and bloomberg interviews yesterday was suggesting that the drug was basically priceless.

"Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE) and BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) have received a US$1.95bn order from the United States government for 100mln potential COVID-19 vaccine doses. The agreement also allows the further acquisition of 500mln vaccines."

This is the kind of money governments are willing to pay for something that can combat this virus.

I know mate. Apologies Coshman i'm trying to practice what i preach but keep ending up back here! What a hypocrite haha

So yea, I guess it's better to set an RNS notification and find something else to do.

The Market currently values the drug/company at £250-300m pending (in no particular order); confirmation by peer review/approvals (European or US)/licencing/COPD results.

Doesn't stop a large II coming on board and driving the price up however it's likely to sit at the 180-230 range until we get an update on one of those items. The results on monday mean that from here there is a lot more upside than downside.