Member Info for ChrisToffer

Are you being sarcastic dumbpunter? An RNS with significant news can drop anytime

Lads we can all see the price, it doesn't need a running commentary ffs

I have to agree, take the article posted by Bosi earlier https://www.dw.com/en/is-compulsory-licensing-of-remdesivir-a-feasible-option/a-54103280

That quotes an out-licenced price of $56 a dose for Remdesivir in India. If we use that price as an example; India has about 50,000 cases a day at the minute. That's up to 50,000 cases needing a 14 day course of SNG001 at $56 a day = $39.2m. A day.

Of course there are expenses and many other factors that come into it but that is the kind of revenue SNG could demonstrate to potential licencees. And that's to a country (1 of 127) who are deemed by remdesivir to qualify for a reduced price.

Hi Shpunken, the amount of press we've had over the last week should definitely help recruitment and the home trial data would be massively beneficial to both the approval process and the commercial discussion. However, whilst the target group are being shielded i think recruitment will continue to be slow.

The question then is; what comes next? Try to get SNG001 into hospitals to treat people now and during the winter months or wait until they assess it in the home environment as well?

I think it'll be the former, especially in the US.

Hi Nolupus, I'm not sure in light of the strong hospital results that its a certainty the home trial will have to be fully recruited. Theyve always maintained that recruitment of the home trial would depend on the prevalence of the virus in society. Like what happens if they don't ever fill it, they wouldnt then drop the hospital data as well. They would look to progress with what they have.

Anyway, they are now talking to the regulatory authorities about what happens next and that could look very different what normally happens because of the pandemic. We'll find out soon enough:D

Ah, just seen hold4results response to the same! :D

Hi joey, the dosage levels were 6mIU for all trials. There was a mistake in the EU register for SG015 that said 12mIU but I emailed consilium and they confirmed it was an error and that they would amend it.

I dont know what Bill Gates thinks and I really don't wanna be drawn into a (anti) vaccine conversation. However, from a purely financial perspective, this drug could be incredibly profitable for a large pharma. It could easily be worth Billions in revenue over the next few years and possibly beyond that if it proves effective in COPD.

That's the way i think it'll go too Ghia. When they get past the peer review (I think that bits a shoe in) and if they get emergency approvals then licenced distributors per region to coincide with the regional emergency approvals. Up front fees (possibly with royalties) that will cover the rest of the development costs.

Hi Rich, I think the AVCT test is POC saliva based. Like a pregnancy test if I remember correctly (its been a while since I looked at them). Their cancer developments are probably much more promising however that'll be more long term.

Anyhow, the point i was trying to make is that mass testing alone would only lead to more lockdowns (local or otherwise) and thats not the final answer. The testing companies will also have a ceiling with regards to revenue that is nowhere near the potential ceiling of treatments.

How does mass screening/testing keep the R number down? Lockdowns (i.e Shutting down the economy) is what keeps the R number down and that clearly isn't sustainable. Therapeutics/Treatments/vaccines as well as testing will open up the society and the economy. Make no mistake though, the bigger money is in treatment. NCYT are a case in point. The year they have had and they expect to generate £120m in revenue. Vaccines and treatments will generate billions.

Completely agree Dano, the point i was making is that the shielding initiative has been so effective that infection rates in the target group of the home trial have been low. It's chicken and egg again because these at risk people still have to catch coronavirus before they can enter the trial - which is a huge risk in itself!

Expanding the trial to countries where the virus is more prevalent in the target group, because shielding isn't in place, could be a way forward.

John also makes a good point though - the home trial was clearly set up to demonstrate the trend that the earlier the drug is administered the better. On the back of the strong hospital trial results and because SNG are currently talking to the regulatory authorities, that may no longer be required.

Yea can't see it either Deal3r. The problem with home trial recruitment is that the entry criteria is at-risk people who are currently shielded in the UK. Unless they can expand that to an international trial in areas where the virus is prevalent then I think it'll be next winter before they fill it - that's assuming the next step in the approval process requires them to fill it.

Hi MIKODX, I'm not sure it'll be as clean cut as one big Pharma making an offer because of the outstanding development. Even if that would be the easiest/cleanest for our own exact strategies.

Any licencing agreement(s) may involve up front payments with further milestone payments as the different approvals/stages of trials are achieved. If an EUA is granted then a licencing agreement could also involve exclusive distribution rights for the region that the emergency approval applies (US/EU etc).

There are many ways it could go. Exciting times!

Morning all, hope the hangover isn't too bad Eva haha but glad to hear you're bought back in!

On the Midas thing, each to their own I guess but I won't be selling anything until there is clarity on approvals and licencing. With the interim COPD data also coming through in August, in my mind if there is a positive outcome on any of those 3 avenues then the value is more likely to be north of where we are now. If it's positive on 2 or all 3 then the value could rise exponentially.

To be fair foxy, its not a binary answer. There are so many ways this can play out and the potential because of the current climate is enormous. Personally i set a target of £5.80 when the results were announced, and I was happy to wait it long term to get that. But I suspect any licencing arrangement (even for, say, US distribution alone) could blow that out of the water.

Hopefully that first deal announcement will allow us to better assess our exit strategies.

I dont think theyll have a choice in that Dave, the home trial will not be completed in the UK for a while and if the authorities (particularly the US) like what they see with the hospital and COPD data then they'll likely want to get as much of the drug out there as quickly as possible. SnG won't be able meet that demand alone.

Ah ffs lads can we drop this b0ll0cks.? The masks are about minimising risk in the absence of true understanding on the spread of the virus and anything to combat that. They've literally been making it up as they go along and to be fair, no one could have done any different.

With only 149m shares in issue, a 5bn MCAP would give a SP of £33.55. Crazy!

Although RM has said that he can not preempt the regulatory response, he has always maintained that 'data is king'. I dont think they'll be too far away from what the regulators will want to see.