Member Info for ChrisToffer

Nolupus you're just trying to justify your cross ramp, nothing more!

Professor Holgate clearly outlined in the webinar why inhaled INF is so much more effective. It won't be in demand anywhere near as much as the inhaled formulation so the spike there is misplaced.

Hi Mike, if SNG can get an EUA over the line then I would think phase 3 will run alongside the use of the drug internationally. It helps people as well as continuing the development of the drug. It also allows SNG (and any licencees) to commercialise it and fund the development.

Goldsmith you are so far off the mark using the funding line. SNG used the previous fundraise to invest in the supply chain so they would be in a position to supply millions of doses should the trial results turn out this way. Even if they don't licence/sell the product (highly unlikely because of demand) then selling those doses will fund the next steps of development.

I dont think a takeover offer would be anywhere near the current map. Watch the proactive interview with RM released yesterday and the language he is using suggests that this drug will not go cheap.

"...the size if the problem and the devastation caused to countries by this virus means that this is a valuable prospect - its only reasonable."

He isn't prone to overstating things. They know what they've got.

Thats right Rich and I think that was a lesson learned from the Faron traumakine phase 3 trial a couple of years ago that resulted in inconclusive results due to corticosteroid use.

Yea Remdesivir is at least 10 times that which (in my mind) is probably more reflective of the price due to the current climate. I think the figures i've given below (and i'm no expert btw!) could be fairly viewed as a floor. Not only the price but If the drug is as effective as Monday's results suggest, then demand will be far greater than 10% of the cases to date.

Thanks Morethanme, I was interested at the price he gave at £20. That's a lot lower than anything else i've seen.

If 10% of the coronavirus cases to date were treated at £20 a dose, 1.5m X 14 doses X £20 = £420m. That's north of the market valuation already before factoring in countries wanting to stock the drug ahead of any second wave, or COPD, or any future mutations/viruses.

Yea I don't have enough liquidity to buy enough to make a material difference so will go with what i have. It really is hard to see any downside from here, there's just too much need for something like this from all perspectives (medical, financial, political).

I'd be sweating profusely! I think the great thing about the position we're in is that the hospital results have de-risked this so much that buyers/licencees will be telling us the true value of this at some point so we just have to wait for those offers.

CW, I would actually be afraid to go that far to test the sell haha

Yea I wouldn't underestimate how rapidly things could move now. Unfortunately, people are still getting sick and dying everyday and that directly affects leaders' positions in some of the richest nations in the world. As RM said, how do you put a price on this?

If Europe are willing to put up 3/4 of a trillion euros because of this problem, how much is a drug worth that can help that. It's mind boggling!

Yea seen your follow up, i think we're on the same page!

I don't think the home trial will be stopped because, although they may have enough data to support an EUA, the normal approval process would still need to be completed in my mind. That process would be made a lot easier with an EUA however as they can start to commercialise the drug and open up other avenues for progression of the approvals.

Matt007, regardless of local outbreaks the government guidance for shielding are still in place until 1 Aug. People who are shielding essentially make up the target group for at home patients.

Oil, i interpreted that a little differently in that (I thought) they meant that, unlike previously thought, the drug had a positive effect on people who were treated later in the disease, which is why they want to start treating people on ventilators with the drug (that was a huge development for me).

I don't think that devalues the use of the drug at home because it may (probably will) stop people from even having to go to hospital.

Upup, I agree a deal is likely to come first however its nigh on impossible to fill the at home trial right now because the target group is at risk patients who are currently being shielded from the virus. If they can't get sick we can't fill the trial. The company have said this.

The general understanding has always been that the drug will be more effective the earlier it is delivered so it shouldn't weaken their hand in any deal. Its also unlikely to be a pre requisite for EUA.

*oil haha

Yea pils right, the recruitment for the home trial is going slow and the company said from the outset that completion of it would always depend on the prevalence of the virus. Additionally, the at home trial entry criteria is people at risk so likely to be people who have been shielding.

Unless they expand it to an international trial off the back of whatever agreements are put in place next, then it'll likely not be filled until the UK go through a second wave.

This is far from a binary play. Even if the results weren't great yesterday they still would have had the at home results and COPD to come.

The value of one of those being successful would eclipse anything ODX achieve. Just the nature of a teatment vs a test kit.

Hahaha

The one thing SNG have shown throughout is that the integrity of the trial is paramount and data is king. Getting the approvals is not an if but when. Getting an emergency approval is the question mark and as they've said, they need to speak to the applicable authorities and see what they need to fill in any gaps (if there are any). The SP will do what it does but the value of the drug remains. Its just a matter of time.

It's to treat COPD patients during the winter cold and flu season or from any other viruses that cause them exacerbations. That could be a significant piece of the COPD market.