Member Info for ChrisToffer

Very unlikely as she was admitted to hospital on march 12 and SG016 didn't start dosing until 31st March. She also wouldn't have met the entry criteria for the trial as they wouldn't have been able to get her onto the drug early enough.

RM did say in an earlier interview that 'conclusive is a strong word' however in the more recent interview he sounded a lot more bullish when he said, "watch our results". It appears from all of the research we've seen that as scientists have continued on this journey of understanding the virus and the effects it has on our immune response, interferon levels may play a key part in the progression of the disease. Fingers crossed for a big week here!

The previous licencing deal for asthma development was worth up $250m if I remember correctly

1.7 a share values SNG001 at c.250m. Surely that's low if there's proven benefit in covid?

Hi Nolupus, no I don't agree that they would need to wait for the home trial results before applying for emergency approval. I think they would be able to seek an emergency approval for hospital administration of the drug based on the hospital trial parameters.

Whiney, where have the company stated that they only recruited 100 patients in the interest of saving time? Everything I've said here is based on statements that have come from RM or SNG. Everything you're saying is in contrast to what they're saying. If you don't believe them then maybe you need to reconsider your position here.

Nolupus there was news article posted here last week where RM stated they didn't expect to fill the home trial this summer because the virus isn't as prevalent as it was. I think sep/oct read out is unlikely however recruitment for the home trial has always been dependent on prevalence of the virus. The company have always said that. Its a slow burner.

Completion of the home trial is not a pre-requisite for the approval process to begin. The company state in their annual report that If hospital results are positive they will begin that process. They are also investing in the supply line so if the hospital trial results are positive they want to have meaningful amounts of the drug so they can help people. Theyre working towards having an approval (emergency or otherwise) this year.

I understand what you're saying as I have a good grasp on regulation and how approval processes like this work, however these are strange times that allow for thinking outside the box to save lives. The home trial is a prime example of that.

Winwinwine, if there wasn't enough data from the hospital trial then why did they only recruit 100 patients. If they needed more data then why wouldn't they have set that number at 500/1000/1500?

They've said themselves that positive hospital results will mean they begin to work with the agencies on approvals and they've invested in the supply chain in case that happens. The company's position on this is clearly laid out.

The company have laid out the steps; hospital readout; if successful work with authorities on approvals; work on supply chain to supply meaningful quantities by year end; continue with home trial (won't be finished this summer); assess next steps for COPD in due course. That's all there in the RNS's and interviews guys.

Interim analysis of of the COPD results (SG015). The at home part of SG016 for covid is a separate arm of that trial but doesn't isn't a pre-requisite for progression on approvals. RM has stated that they are investing in the supply chain because they don't want to be in a position where they get positive results and don't have enough of the drug to help people. They'll only be able to help people with some sort of emergency approval.

Hi whiny, i think you're missing the emphasis on 'hospital trial' in that statement they made. They did'nt say after the home trial they would look for approval. Ultimately if it's shown to help and is safe then demand will drive how expeditious the approval process actually is. There is scope (and precedent) for accelerated approvals in this current climate.

Hi Nolupus, SNG have stated themselves that if the hospital trial shows positive results then they will work with the agencies to, "find the most expeditious route to approval". These are exceptional times and there are no treatments for the early phase of the disease.

Hi Algy, thats not necessarily correct. Remdesivir is charged at about $300 a vial or $2300 odd for a course to developed countries and more to US patients with insurance.

But even if we go with that the point still stands. 1 million patients is still only 7% of all coronavirus cases to date and the next 5 days will see another 1 million cases added. £500 a course of treatment (£35 a dose) still gives the same revenue.

The share price is held waiting the first proper clinical readout on whether interferon is actually a viable early treatment for coronavirus. Despite the other studies and what they've indicated, it's still unproven therefore any rise in the SP pre-results would be speculative and the market has clearly lost interest in speculative Cov testing/treatments. At this price, larger investors can probably wait until results are out and buy on the way up. It doesn't change the potential because the demand is there;

If SNG001 shows enough benefit to receive an EUA ahead of the winter flu season and SNG are in a position to provide even 1 million doses, then the numbers speak for themselves.

Interferon based treatments are listed on the NHS at minimum £500 a pop. 1 million doses would treat 70k patients through a 14 day course. There are currently 200k new cases a day worldwide.

No matter how much I play with those numbers the potential to raise 500m in revenue is still there. For example, cut the price to 1/5th to £100 but increase the demand to 5 million. 5 million doses would treat 360,000 patients for a 14 day treatment period. 360k patients is 2.5% of the all coronavirus cases to date. That's a pretty small market share for a wholly owned and patented treatment.

5 million doses is obviously a significant upscale therefore SNG would have to licence or sell the product but those numbers give us an idea of how strong SNG's hand would be in such negotiations. That's without any COPD value added nor does it include the fear factor where European governments will be scrambling to stockpile any treatments they can ahead of winter because they just don't know what's coming.

SGD, I was tempted to ask them but I'm hesitant to bother them too much. I'd rather they were all working on getting the results out sooner haha :p

Im not concerned about that Amiens trial. Even if they werent encroaching on SNGs patent, I would expect the SNG home trial results to be out before they get a readout on the Amiens trial. I also think that if a licencee comes on board that they'll look to protect the market share.

Nolupus, i had this response from consilium, "Thank you for your email, and for spotting this discrepancy and bringing it to our attention. The NHS HRA form is correct- it is 6mIU, not 12, and we are making the change to the EU register now to bring it in line."

I'm now eating humble pie :p

Regardless on the patent, there's a race on for countries preparing for the winter flu season and SNG are well positioned to contribute to that. Just need those results to be positive!

Fair enough! I just had a look over the annual report that highlights some risks around protecting the IP and that it may involve litigation at a cost . You'd like to think that the patent would be well protected in Europe at least.

Thanks Rich, I was under the impression that there would be nothing stopping another company making a formulation of interferon and running trials to get approvals on that formulation.

Having read that link to the patent below it kind of reads like its INF in general, but particularly administered via inhalation. Have to admit it's not something I have any experience in though.

SGD, or may be because theyve identified a huge market for this type of drug?

They would still have to go through the trial amd approval process but they may see value in doing so, even if it takes a few years.