Member Info for ChrisToffer

Good to hear you're still around SS. I thought you had sold out. Personally I find alternate views on the BB informative and I appreciate any constructive argument.

There are a few nutters about though!

Hi Rorkes, although the grounds for the permission of the interim analysis was to support the COVID dataset. It's quite reasonable that any licencee(s) may also want to know what that data looks like. Think they had dosed 109 out of 120 patients so they'll likely it'll get the full analysis.

Thanks Nolupus! I agree and it's almost like the timing is intentional!

Hi Bosi, the range since 20th July top line readout (with the exception of a huge tree shake on the 23rd) has been roughly 250-350m. That's probably fair enough value when the full dataset has still to be analysed and the next steps in the approval process understood. Unless an unlikely leak happens then it'll probably remain here until we get an RNS.

Absolutely, all (constructive) views welcome and i'm always happy to stand corrected btw! :)

Sparkle, SNG and any licencees will have a pretty good idea of what SNG001 could generate in revenue over the coming months and years for both COVID & COPD. We can do some simple math ourselves and even with the lowest assumptions (cost/orders etc) the numbers are huge! And its not just the current situation but governments will look to stockpile anything that helps in case of further waves or mutations.

Any doubts like approval timelines, COPD progression or proving the drugs use with other viruses would likely be contracted into any deal through milestones.

Knockoutthepin, with regards to that redx deal; Yea the 360m in milestone payments will have an effect on mcap however the company will have to meet those milestones. This mornings deal with an upfront payment of 17m has boosted their mcap from 50m to 150m which from a distance feels a bit high. They have more promising drugs in the pipeline so it's not a straight forward valuation however they could see a bit of a retrace from that 150m as it'll be some time before they get near those milestones.

Sorry everyone to go on about redx I'm actually not invested there but i do think because there is development outstanding here, that we will see a similar sort of deal (on a larger scale). So it's an interesting trajectory.

It is an incredibly ropey link however General Corporate Purposes can include aquisitions haha

Mr.Big https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AZN/astrazeneca-prices-a-3bn-bond-issue/14639956

Speculative to be fair. As much as I wanna see upup eating a hat I think i'd prefer if he was right.

Can see viable arguments for and against AZN, as well as several others. I imagine they'll all bring slightly different things to the table with regards payment structure/support for development etc. Nice position for Synairgen to be in.

In my mind It's like when an entrepreneur nails a pitch on dragons den and they get to sit back and watch the dragons squabbling to get a piece of it. We could end up with 1 or 2 licencees, someone could come in for the lot, or we get nout.

3bn mcap is £20 a share. Albeit interesting, It's a pretty ropey link so don't think it'll have much of an effect on the SP.

AZN are busy on a lot of fronts, Redx also announced an out licencing agreement with AZN this morning (for only an upfront $17m) sending their SP rocketing.

Yea i agree Frank. Regardless of the lack of press from the government, Synairgen will be well aware of what they have and theyll have the data to back it up. RM has already been making the right noises in interviews to suggest he won't let it go cheap. He's refused to be drawn on a value and just pointed to the size of the problem both clinically and economically. Thats a good starting point to a negotiation.

This is the way they work, they won't announce anything unless its of significance. They also don't overstate things so if RM says in an interview that he's talking to agencies and pharma then thats what he's doing. You can be assured they're working on their next big event.

As I understand it, to release the data to the scientific community (by peer review) they would first have to draft the publication. However the most important thing to do, in light of the pandemic, is to get the full dataset analysed and sent to the agencies for approval. If that happens the rest will take care of itself, as will the share price.

Slow morning all! Eva have you had the hair of the dog? ;)

See the EU announced an order of 300mln vaccine doses from GSK/Sanofi. The UK one for 50mln doses was for £500m meaning the EU one would have been for c.£3bn. That's the kind of market we're in here and what RM quite rightly points to when talking about value. It's only a matter of time.

5 billion is £33.50 a share. I can see how a company with this type of drug could go for 5bn, especially when you look at the numbers being pumped into the economy, but 33.50 is absolutely insane so I'm not even entertaining that right now!

Woodstock, the company have stated that the next step is speaking to the regulatory agencies to see if they can obtain approvals so they can get the drug out there to help people. They used the previous fundraise to be in a position to supply millions of doses by year end. If they sell those doses they'll likely raise enough to support COPD development.

Theyve made it clear that they are not in a position to continue to support the drug in market so they'll be seeking a licencee. If a large pharma come forward with a licence offer at this time then any up front payment is likely to be enough to cover further trials of COPD.

If neither approvals or a licence agreement happen at this stage then a fundraise is not necessarily out of the question however its likely to be around the current SP so not always a bad thing. Its then only a matter of time to get to (what I think) will be the same value.

Thats my take on it and I'm happy to wait long term but it seems to me there's more that could go right here over the next month than wrong.

Hi Woodstock, I've been here a good few months now and, a few maniacs aside, the conversation has been fairly constructive throughout. I'm interested to know what you're viewing as rampy? Is the valuations?

I've not topsliced anything yet and happy to hold well long term. Not sure if it'll be a takeover or licence(s) with milestone payments etc. but figured it's massively de-risked now so at the very least I'll wait until the RNS on either comes before looking at an exit strategy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yaAiafidyi0

Anyone who doubts the value of this drug (if successful) or whether Synairgen will look to get maximum value from it should watch this interview from about 5.30 into it.

'Given the size of the problem and the decimation to countries because of it then if successful this drug will not only help people clinically but will also be a very valuable prospect.'

He also says that you only have to look at the kind of money being put into vaccines. That gives us an idea of what he's thinking.