Member Info for Chrishar

Could you link me to that post or direct me to the date of the tweet? I've been searching for it but failed to find it...

I've only been following this share for half a week now but am aware that Novacyt tend to update its shareholders and the market fairly regularly. Previously what sort of time have they been releasing info? Early morning? Any pattern to it?

Thank you for that breakdown, that seems to be about the most detailed of any i've seen.

Would you or someone else informed on this forum give me a little more insight into how true market cap value is calculated for a company that (hypothetically) sees revenue skyrocket for approx 12 months and then simmer down to something like its normal level. If an investor were to project earnings of say £400 million in year one, followed by earnings of £80 million in year two, how would that affect its valuation?

I get that this isn't going away anytime soon and that Novacyt may be able to sell large quantities of its products for years to come, but I think it helps to be aware of the answer to my question when attempting to come to a fair valuation.

Thank you Oultonmike.

What about negative rns? Would it be rerated down 50% potentially upon news that the trial was unsuccessful?

Please don't get shirty, I am trying to make sense of this investment. You're right to say that I am inexperienced in regards to this sort of stock - I tend to invest in more established ftse250 and AIM companies with proven track records of growth. Your point makes sense. Obviously RNS landing early morning before the market opens would lock an investor out of a substantial portion of the gains. I am IN currently and just deciding what my next move is (in fact I'm expecting the share price to drift a little giving me a chance to top up).

What about this prediction rather than the overly exaggerated ones I keep seeing. What do you think?

4m to 8m tests a month and looking to increase. Hard to actually be sure of the sales right now but let's say 6m.

Tests sell for approx. £10.

£60 million a month revenue in 3 months.

£720 million plus over 12 months (covid-19 will still be around but do we really imagine this time next year the UK government for example still aiming for 100k tests a day?! Nation states will lose interest somewhat.)

Pharma have PEs of 10-100, but more realistically on the lower end seeing as revenues at this level can't be sustained.

Now revenue somewhere between £0.5b to £1b. Earnings a fifth of that? £0.1b to £0.2b

Possible to see the mcap reach £1billion in the short term, at a stretch. That would be £16 a share. More likely peaking around the £12 a share mark.

What do we think is going to happen to the share price all the while there's no news? Drift down slowly awaiting an RNS? For slightly more risk averse investors do you think in all honesty that staying out and watching from the sidelines is the best course of action? If positive RNS lands there's going to be a chance to jump back in and make a considerable profit still, right? Some on here are talking of Synairgen reaching £5-£10 a share potentially...

I've got some questions that need addressing in order for me as a Novacyt investor to continue holding (and possibly adding).

As one of the first diagnostic tests to be approved by the WHO/FDA, Novacyt are evidently well placed in this regard. How much competition is developing in terms of diagnostic test manufacturers? Is it reasonable to be sure of Novacyt selling 8 million a month or on this front is it more likely to fall a few million shy? Are there likely to be major players in India, Indonesia etc that take over production in their countries?

A second question relates to the rapid tests. I know once again we are leading the way on this, alongside Roche. Are there many others competing in this field? Could there have been a number of biotechs working on the rapid tests whilst Novacyt were focused initially on the two hour lab based tests?

Please help me to understand these issues more and try not to go full half glass full mode! GLA.

Just like the derampers should be castigated, so should the baseless ramping. This is unhelpful.

Wah? Thank you to the other posters have given a far more helpful response.

The fear that has come over me recently is that behind the scenes there are really dozens and dozens of biotech companies with an equal chance and therefore despite synairgen having a shot it's still a bit of a lottery. I'm trying to work out whether this is genuinely good value at 60p or if i'm playing the lottery here, that's all!

It seems to me that in all the articles like this either SNG is not mentioned or SNG/Interferon is mentioned as a little footnote at the end. I'm all for honesty and accept I don't understand the race to find suitable treatments as much as others but are we sure we're not exaggerating the chances of SNG001 being a household name in two weeks time leading the charge to cure the world of this pandemic?! I feel like you have to dig a lot deeper to find info on SNG001 than you do on the other drugs being trialled...

New here and finding it very hard to work out who the genuine posters are. I'm currently in this share but am nervous as the price trickles down. I have a question for you guys. Do you think there is any chance that the next RNS is unequivocal, good or bad? Or is it most likely going to be something positive but vague? If it's the latter I think it's still a safe share at this price and may invest a little more. If black and white results from the trial are coming soon then that makes this much riskier rn.