Member Info for Chrishar

We can't pretend that novacyt is the best kept secret anymore. It's had plenty of mainstream national coverage, it's scaling up to 10 million tests a month and the CEO seems confident that the demand for primerdesign's tests will match that supply. And yet the sp is on a continual downward trend to £3. Why do we think this is? Some have projected revenue over 12 months to be around £1b but we are going to have to start accepting that right now the market doesn't buy it.

I've got a couple of thoughts. From a pure revenue perspective we might have overestimated the price that we are selling these, especially when selling in bulk. Maybe it's closer to £4-£5 a test? Maybe estimating an average 6 million tests a month is more reasonable and at this price would make our mcap a bit more understandable.

Another thought is that traders expect this share to drift without news, especially without hard sales figures and so are able to sit it out until it reaches a certain level. This seemed like the case Monday when despite very little new news over the weekend the sp bounced off 305 - at one point up 25%.

At least we aren't getting silly £20 valuations now but what do you think it's going to take to see this break the £5 barrier and stay there?

Embarrassing comment once again ShareSting. Shame on you!

;)

If that now means no news for a little while it's going to be a struggle to keep afloat at 350. Down me thinks as the week progresses :(

Is anyone able to answer Sir Alan Sugar's question?

You'll make lots of money.

The big ones look like sells.

I fully get that Richard and the team must be busy bees right now and the trial and analysis has to come first but he did say that he would keep investors and the market informed along the way. Is it unfair of me to expect some communication in the near future?

Shpunken where's your evidence that the IIs are still selling? As far as I can see it's stopping/stopped...

I feel like there is going to be a blink and you miss it moment soon.

Chance to catch a falling knife this morning.

Does anyone know what's going on in France? I think we were all hoping for novacyt to make a deal with the french government to supply millions of tests like we have with DHSC but that's not come to fruition. I've seen BIoMerieux mentioned a few times but as far as I'm aware there's no agreement in place with them either to supply to the french populace en masse. As far as you know are we still in the running to be the main supplier?

Ponkey I really don't think you need to worry. The sell off was heavy last week but now the profit takers have run off with their gains it's hard to imagine they'll be more sellers than buyers come tomorrow. Barring a fresh rns I expect the sp to hover in the 325 and 350 range with possible dissatisfaction and impatience seeping in later in the week if still no news. But don't worry tomorrow - selling first thing will almost certainly cost you money.

So can someone help me out here... what happens when phase two results are read out? Is it a case of one of three options - i) proven efficacy and safety and therefore progression to phase three (in this case things moving much quicker and manufacturing ramped up), ii) little to no effect displayed and therefore the end of the road or iii) results are a mixed bag with some efficacy shown but not enough for conclusive results. In this case the company has to try to argue its case for getting the drug to market.

Could someone expand on this a little please?!

I personally struggle to see this move back up until some significant news is released. And before I'm accused of being a deramper let me say I think any positive news will send this soaring again. And I bought back in at COB Friday after selling on opening Thursday. But why does everyone keep saying that nothing has changed and yet we're down from near £5 a share to £3? It HAS changed!

This rose on the expectation of agreeing some huge national level contracts with France and hopefully another country or two. So far we're heard nothing which makes it that little bit less likely that it's going to happen.
This rose on the expectation of huge OEM agreements with Thermo Fisher and other big pharma. As the weeks progress this starts to feel more like rumour or at least somewhat insignificant.

Everyone on here keeps quoting Graham and his choice of the word 'transformational'. We all know that. On Jan 1st the sp was 14p and now its 302. That's something like 2000% growth.

There's only so long speculation can fuel ever more growth. Having said that I think any major news now and off we go again.

It might not be that complicated but it is potentially reason to worry, no? They still hold a hell of a lot of shares and so if this selling continues then there is every reason to believe the price has far further to fall.

What it does seem to me is that because of the large debt this share price is easy to manipulate. I felt it was being manipulated on the large rise up from 14p to 29p and now back down again. Could parvus be intentionally driving the share price down for some reason unbeknownst to me?

I'm trying to make sense of the share price movements here. Most on here seem to be buoyant when it's rising and panicking when it falls. IMO at 18p this is either a hold or buy. The main broker forecasts are as follows:

Barclays 15p
Berenberg 20p
Liberum 50p
Pell Hunt 100p
Citigroup 200p but they haven't given an updated forecast since covid 19

A few key metrics:
Revenue £995m
Operating profit £257m
Profit after tax £87m
mcap £112m. debt £2.6b

So obviously on a price to earnings level AA is ridiculously cheap. Strip out the debt and we'd be talking of a 2000% rise!
Now a major positive is even with the large yearly debt repayments the AA is posting a profit and (ever so slowly) bringing down its debt. Net debt is now at £1.581b compared with £1.96b in 2016. The company in 2016 was in many ways in a far worse position than they are now and yet the share price was 280p.

None of this adds up and so by my calculations the two key things holding this share price down is the threat of a long and deep recession that affects the AAs ability to post a profit in the medium term and a portion of the debt (£0.9b) that needs repaying by I think 2023.

The ceo Simon Breakwell bought shares recently and I note that many directors and executives were buying in last year at a much, much higher price than it is now. So yes it might take some time to see returns but unless you are needing your money right away I can't see how selling at this price is anything other than throwing your money away.

Can anyone add anything to this?

The AA hasn't really been aligned with the footsie so I wouldn't factor that in.

Genuine question - can anyone see any downside to investing at this price? Until results in mid to late June the only news is going to be positive, either from the mouth of Richard or from an rns. Anything to counter this?

There is no doubt that there is a bunch of deluded people on here. Not the informed hard working posters like VanV but the ones doing the numbers on a spreadsheet and coming up with ludicrous valuations come the summer of £20, £30, £60 a share whilst others retweet these posts and recommend in their droves.

I'm not a seasoned investor but it was obvious that there was always the chance of getting burned here. The sales figures meant that there was no chance of the sp collapsing altogether back to pre covid levels but it was always reaching for the next rns. That's too much pressure and something was always going to give.

I feel sorry for those sitting on a 40% loss but for the rest of us that got out in time the question is is there value at this new lower base? For me there is as a good rns could easily see the sp return (at least briefly) back to a fiver.

JTMacs other account?