Member Info for Chrishar

Personally at this price I don't think it's 'a bit of a punt', I think it's a sensible investment. Sales are not far behind the current mcap and that's before scaling up to 10 million tests a month.

I argued in April that balance was needed on this board. When the mcap jumped to over £250m and the sales were still about a fifth of that then the value was based on optimistic projections. Not only that we still weren't sure back then what effect the better weather would have, how effective lockdowns would be etc. We've had over two months of lockdown, we've had the sunniest May on record and still the UK have failed to bring deaths down to two digits a day.

Share prices are heavily affected by momentum and we've seen a downward trend for a while now. I really believe once it swings the other way we could quickly see new highs.

This morning Han***** announced that enough tests have been delivered to every care home in England to test every resident. There are almost 3 million people in England over 80 years old and so I imagine the number of tests delivered across England is in the millions.

They're going to run out of primerdesign kits pretty quickly don't you think?

As the months go by it should start to become possible to determine a fair value for the company.

We don't know how long this crisis will go on for but what's obvious is vaccine or no vaccine there is still going to be a need for PCR antigen testing into the future. Most likely nowhere near current levels in say 18 months but it won't dry up completely.

My back of a fag packet (VERY conservative) calculation is this:

End of May £120m sales/contracted orders
Let's say £6 a test and we sell 6m a month (again I stress conservative estimates) - gives us 7 months of £36m revenue.
31/12/2020 - revenue ~ £380m - EBITDA - ~£190m - Profix after tax ~ £160m.

Considering at this point we may well be in the midst of a bleak midwinter of flu and covid, what do you think a fair P/E ratio would then be? 10?

If you agree with these figures then we start to look VERY undervalued.

I'm very sorry this was meant for another board, not SNG.

Good to hear still!

Could someone here give a breakdown of the shorting over the past month or two? Are the statistics available like they are on short tracker? It would really help with my investment decisions...

Thanks!

Besides the tweet this is old news, right?

The R value in England has risen to between 0.7 and 1, according to the government’s latest official estimates with some regions now at risk of seeing a rise in the number of infections.

The latest data suggests that the north-west of England is an area for concern and that some local authorities may have R-values – the rate of transmission – above 1, at which point the epidemic will begin to grow in these communities.

The Government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance told a virtual briefing with journalists on Friday the R-number - the average number of people that will contract coronavirus from an infected person - for England was between 0.7 and 1, while it remained between 0.7 and 0.9 for the UK as a whole.

If the r rate heads back above 1 fears of a potential second lockdown will see a panic in the markets and I think money will move back into covid stocks.

I don't think Brazil has been mentioned at any point in any rns.

Is this company worth more now than six weeks ago? On balance I say yes.

This virus is not going away. The UK has endured two months of lockdown and still failed to bring the virus under control. We're now entering a crunch period where testing is more essential than ever and other companies are still yet to market. The first mover advantage won't just be the four months so far but into July and August. By that time many more countries are likely to have stockpiled from us.

This has every chance of turning on a dime back to the price seen in April.

It feels like half the posters on here are not able to get past the short term volatility.

IF like me you've done your research and you consider the fair value of this to be >£4 then this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Forget about today's price and focus on three, four weeks from now. GLA!

Give Mandy from novacyt a text and ask her when we should expect this to rise.

Don't shoot your load too early or you'll miss out on the full experience.

A lot has been written on here about the director purchases. On the one hand saying directors don't invest to lose money and so are confident this is going much higher than £3 a share whilst others saying the relatively small buys show little confidence in the company.

As someone that keeps an eye on director purchases for other companies I don't think there is much you can usually read into them. Considering how wealthy many directors are it's very rare to see massive buys, with buys of around £5k to £50k much more the norm.

I see it as a subtle hint from the board to stick with novacyt longer term as they are looking to the future.

Could someone explain what happened re the 3.82 million tests to Egypt? That should be considered the largest order to date but perhaps its rns sensitive due to the WHO's involvement? I can't imagine however seeing as it appeared on gov.org?

I know that website got the words test and kit mixed up in relation to Zimbabwe but I can't see us only sending 40000 testing kits to Egypt when they aim to test that many people every couple of days...

I'll attempt an answer.

Having multiplied from the about 15p to near on 500p following its speedy reaction to covid 19 and producing the mecca of diagnostic tests, investors realised they may have overshot their wad somewhat and a retrace has occurred.

Over April and May the sp was fueled by the possibility of huge contracts and potential OEM agreements with big pharma, as sales grew and mcap exceeded £300m. This so far hasn't come to fruition (officially)

Now in June it seems we've gone the other way. As sales increase they grow closer to fully supporting the share price but speculation is no longer fuelling rises. If and when news lands re US sales, more is made clear about the mobile testing arrangements, and evidence that the company is able to sell close to 10 million tests a month, the trend will reverse and we should see the sp rocket north.

Following the movements over the past few months I very nearly sold my entire holding on Tuesday at 47p as it was highly likely to be a premature rise, to then buy it all back cheaper at the end of the week.

I predict momentum to build about a week from now up to results.

The chart is saying be patient and you will be rewarded in time.

Valuing companies is notoriously hard to do but when a debt free company's mcap drifts towards its sales over the past three months it's a pretty good sign you're on to a winner!

I added more of my life savings at 240. Not clever and fast turning into gambling!

No it won't. The wider stock market is due a correction VERY soon and investors will be running back to covid stocks.