Member Info for Chrishar

Can you show me the £2 forecast?

Would it suggest they are done or could it mean they are waiting for the next rise to sell into? Probably the latter.

I can see that too. If it dips down to 170 first thing I'm doubling up.

Hold on to your shares or you'll be buying them back for more later.

Sharesting, Ghia I've a question for you. Do you think any spikes in the share price over the next few weeks can be maintained now? If we see a rise back up to circa 75p is there reason to believe it can dig its heels in a bit more this time in anticipation of results?

Similarly I'm in for 2.5k at 190p. Pushing aside the little voice in the back of my mind I think those with patience are very likely to be well rewarded with this share. IF there is a big negative reaction first thing tomorrow I think I'll find it hard not to double up around the 175p mark.

Please correct me if I'm wrong but charts seem pretty useless to me as past performance is not a predictor of future performance. Take this share for example, the pattern only played out the way it did because no new news landed and no RNS's. Sure with the benefit of hindsight we'd all have kept selling in the mid 60s and bought back in the mid 50s but you're equally running the risk of missing out considerably if you're out whilst good news lands.

In other words these tests supplied to the premier league as well as throughout Hong Kong may be using novacyt's technology/components? This would then be an additional revenue stream (like the one rumoured on here with Thermo Fisher) and not part of the 8 million tests novacyt themselves are able to produce alongside AZ/GSK?

Can you explain your thinking a little more? So you are saying that the £4 million deal with Prenetics is actually using primerdesign's test? What are Prenetics bringing to the table then?

Could we get back to discussing this company rather than geopolitics?

otemple, you seem clued up. What are your thoughts on the share price in the medium term?

I invested here with the knowledge that the debt was a big issue, but that it was not something to be too concerned about for the time being. Profit before tax this year was almost as high as the market cap!

From what I can see the AA is highly profitable right now and is able to service the high debt repayments. What's the big issue? That a recession/downturn could see revenue fall below the level of the debt repayments, raising the overall total debt even more?

Let's be honest a 14 day quarantine on arrival spells the end of the airline industry. It just isn't a workable solution long term so my thinking is it's just a bit of PR spin. The government has been heavily criticised for not putting in place proper checks in February/March/April and as other countries start implementing quarantine procedures, we've got to match it.

It will probably be in place for a few weeks before implementing something slightly less restrictive. I'm not sure this will affect IAG in July.

I don't think £8 x 8m of sales for 9 months has been priced in here. I think that it is not enough to say that they are scaling up to 8 million+ tests a month, there needs to be evidence that the orders will be fulfilled. The contract with the UK government/DHSC was significant and IMO it is probably the reason the share price has finally stabilised around the £4.20 mark. I actually think many investors will have been disappointed with the last RNS, especially as it left it somewhat open to interpretation as to how much of the £90mn sales/contracts to date were from DHSC and therefore how much from elsewhere. I also picked up what the french co founder said - something along the lines of 'we have the test and we're ready to go'. In other words we have not sold all our supply right now/booked up for the foreseeable. We need to hope a major contract there is struck soon.

There's also the question of OEM agreements. For now it's pure speculation and until clarification from management it will remain that way.

Of course the value of the company is pretty speculative right now but it's difficult to argue it's wildly overvalued unless you think i) Demand won't meet our supply, ii) the direct to PCR tests will make no difference to profit margins/won't be needed, iii) there are no OEM agreements in place behind the scenes, iv) this pandemic will be behind us by christmas time. All four things could turn out to be true but I think the odds are in our favour. That's the risk that comes with investing. I think we'll see £6 a share before we see £3 and so for me it's a BUY.

I don't agree with your take on sp movements KingKitega. There does not need to be an update that production is being ramped up well above the 8 million for the sp to rerate higher. What there needs to be is further confirmation of large contracts that give comfort to investors that the sales predictions for the year (be it £200 million revenue or £1bn revenue at the other extreme) are likely to be met. With the healthy margins there is no way that NCYT are going to remain at £280mc if say the next update includes a massive contract with the french government and confirmed sales/received orders of £200mn+.

As the weeks go on there will also be further clarity on the progression of the virus, on a potential vaccine, whether or not there is a role for antibody testing and updates on the new direct to PCR technology. All of this will affect the trajectory for NCYT.

Look at the updated broker forecast by Peel Hunt and Liberum capital - long term holders will be rewarded!

What's the rush? I think this is enough to force the shorts to close over the next week and for the sp to go up nice and consistently to about 45p.

Yesterday it didn't follow the script but you can bet your bottom dollar it'll rise into the close today. Printing money at this price me thinks.

If from now to June the only news is likely to be positive then it's low risk to load up on more than we'd otherwise be comfortable with and top slice in a few weeks once the news cycle turns? Do you guys agree?

Obviously nothing is certain on AIM... But is it fair to say that it's very likely that as we get closer to results read out this sp will rise well beyond the current level?

Up until now I've been selling near the end of the trading day. If an RNS lands, fine I miss out. If not I pick up cheaper shares in the morning and repeat the process. Low risk (low reward).

Finally today this strategy seemed redundant. It does not look like this is dropping below 400p again prior to an rns landing. So if you (like me) are confident the next bit of news will be good, keep hold of your shares.