Member Info for Chrishar

Not been able to buy for half hour now on HL. Anyone know why?

Do you have a link for that?

Is anyone with good investing knowledge able to explain to me how shorts work? I've been searching companies short positions and found the likes of Carnival, IAG, Centrica with little to no short position. Even cineworld has a lower short position than the AA!

I'm not trying to deramp here, the AA's short position has come right down and looks a solid investment to me but could anyone explain the reasoning behind the ones I've named above being shorted less than the AA, which could easily rise 200%+ over the next year???

I was tempted to do that this morning VanV but something's changed and I finally feel confident to hold, hold hold.

The problem with posters like OLS7 is that they seem to think a share price is heavily influenced by a bunch of posters on LSE. It's not. Sure there might be a few small PIs that get excited first thing in the morning or get spiked when they see everyone else piling in but this board is not the reason the share price has jumped today.

Someone on here yesterday predicted this would rise to around £1 pending results of the study. The media attention makes the possibility of success here more real for many investors and that has translated into a sustainable rise today.

I've seen people on here mention the 100mn mcap floor for fund managers to invest. How does this work? I believe the £100mn has been breached.

With the flu, the viruses associated with it change over time so the elderly tend to get vaccinated once every couple of years. From my understanding that is possibly what will occur with this coronavirus although there's still many unknowns in that regard.

Thanks again Sharedealer, that makes sense. I hope no one here thinks I am deramping... i'm merely tied between seeing this as a ST investment or LT. I'm trying to get my head around the long term future for Novacyt and ask the question 'would I be happy to leave my money here and go into hibernation for a year?' . If there are strong enough reasons to believe that the sp can hold firm and grow steadily over the forthcoming months then this becomes a long term option for me.

Sharedealer thanks. Yes it's obvious that NCYT is going to have serious amounts of cash in the bank to reinvest. But no I was not looking for comparisons with Apple or even Viagra (pfizer). Novacyt are supplying to 100 countries and so will generate revenue from all over the place but it's the repeated business from DHSC/PHE and hopefully other governmental bodies abroad that will bring the most comfort to investors. But let's not pretend that nations will be testing 100000 people a day for SARS-Cov-2 in two years from now. It's possible I suppose but highly unlikely.

I meant what companies in the diagnostics field should we be looking to compare Novacyt's potential to? I'm probably being overly cautious and showing inexperience to think more than two years ahead but I just wondered what reasons were there to suggest that Novacyt has a chance of becoming a £bn company in the future...

The biggest concern I have in regard to Novacyt's value is the time limited nature of its current revenues. My back of a fag packet calculations are:
revenue this year of around £600m and profit around £300m, falling to £200m profit and £100m next year.
If you were to average those two years you'd be looking at around £200m profit a year until 2022. Fast growing exciting companies on AIM often see PE ratios of 80+ but even being conservative at a PE Ratio of 30 that would make NCYT worth £6bn.

Once you break it down like this you start to realise what an opportunity this still is. I'm not going to throw out sp predictions as they are just wild guesses but certainly in the long term, thinking of £6 as the ceiling is incredibly lazy and shortsighted.

But I'm interested if anyone has had experience investing in a company in this sort of situation. Are there any precedents of companies that have seized on opportunities to go from relatively tiny companies to £bn companies within a year or two and sustain it? Looking beyond covid is there a large diagnostics market for NCYT to nudge into?

Clarity on this would put my mind at ease and encourage me to go from day trading this stock to long term holding!

No I don't quite agree with that In2Win. In terms of pure percentage increases yes you might find another COVID player that ends up multiplying a few times over. But the NCYT sp has shown enough resilience and there are enough facts on its side for investors to invest a far greater amount of money here now. So there's more money to be made here if you're confident NCYT is worth £6 and beyond.

Thanks for your replies. I've researched the other AIM pharma stocks and am invested in NCYT also but that clearly doesn't have the same potential upside as this. The question was more to see just how good an opportunity this genuinely is. The most knowledgeable on here strike me as truly believing SNG will come good having done their research and analysed Richard's interviews as much as its possible to analyse!

I like this forum because there isn't the same ramping and hyperbole that I've found on other forums. It's taken me a bit of time to resist getting caught up in that!

I only ask because if people truly see the upside as likely as the downside... well... if someone offered me heads or tails - I win £45k, you win £7k I'd bite their hand off obviously! (Sorry for the analogy, I don't like to make it seem like luck). But I just wonder if people are getting a bit carried away with our chances.

I am interested in these valuations people have in their mind and the workings from a pure risk perspective. If it's truly a case of let's just say 15p if the trial is unsuccessful/ the drug is not approved and let's just say £2.50 if the trial is successful (after buyout or licensing). Not only do people think the upside is so much greater than the downside, people on here are also quietly (some loudly) confident it will be approved.

So on that basis if I were to invest £10k I'll either end up with £3k or £45k with a greater chance of it being £45k. Is that really possible? Are we saying that most investors either do not have the risk tolerance to take this on or are wildly underestimating the upside here?

It would be great to hear from the knowledgeable lot as if what I've written above is more or less accurate it makes sense to invest as much as one can realistically handle losing...

750 Mexican Pesos for 96 tests? That's about £4 a test if my calculations are correct.

I lowered my stake in Synairgen this morning by almost 50% because I didn't think I understood the company and its plans well enough and in the end that makes this just a punt for me. To all the knowledgeable members on here who have done their research and continue to stick with SNG despite all the excitement around other covid-19 biotechs - congrats. You deserve your rewards when it hopefully comes.

I'm probably not the best one to answer that but the spread here is very low and so I wonder if the buys and sells get mixed up from time to time?

Maybe your statistics aren't right? Not having a go, just saying :)

Emailing Richard and attempting to direct his strategy is so tasteless and ridiculous. Leave him alone.

Sneaky sneaky

For those with more dealing experience than me, is this how it often works? In my mind if shorts are still in place then those shorters must still think the share price has further to fall... or they would close their short position and jump on board right?