Member Info for Chrishar

sh3 I thought for a moment you had decided to write in normal paragraphs, only to realise that it was a c&p from the rns!

I agree with Alansugar. I hate the people on here blaming Graham or the company when in reality they are more than meeting expectations. It's the lse board's expectations that haven't been met - I mean I myself am guilty having said things like 'if we start making £50m a month this is going to go crazy'.

I admit I was a tad disappointed by the news this morning but not because Graham and the team had misled me and others but that I let my imagination get away from me!

A few statistics to bear in mind.

Sp has risen from ~14p to 275p - 2000%.
Revenue has risen 900%
Cash in the bank has grown 11 fold (factoring in all the new investment).
Earnings (EBITDA) has grown 270 fold! (€153000 to €45m).

Based on these we do not need to fear further falls in share price whilst the possibility of substantial gains is very high.

I can't seem to see what you're referring to... was it primer design that liked the tweet?

So many irritating comments on here...

To the people saying 'another fantastic rns and once again the share price falls!' - it hasn't? It closed Friday at 265 and is currently at 278 and will probably finish closer to 300.

To the people saying 'what more could you want?' - well obviously some wanted more as there were predictions banded around of £60m sales a month from here on out. Anyone being truly honest with themselves would not have been blown away with the news today, but imo it's still positive and is more than enough to keep us at this level/slightly above (~£3).

We are not ready for a rerate currently but believe there is still a decent chance of a rabbit being pulled out of the hat in the not too distant future...

Let's break it down as simply as possible.

Novacyt: £15-£20m cash generation per month, zero debt, mcap £180m. You just don't see that.

For all you annoying rampers saying France is flying when 3%...

Well it's not flying but it is 7% up now and rising into the open.

The number one thing I learnt from this is that the profit margins are as good or even better than most on here assumed. If we sell anywhere close to the 10 million test mark during the winter we will be adding £30m-£40m of cash every single month. That's enormous for a company of this size...

Graham is not one to ramp in the rns's. He's gone from expecting demand for the months to come to expecting demand well into 2021. £41m profit and that's having paid off outstanding debts and investing heavily. You've got to expect double that profit for the second half of the year or even more with the winter in the western hemisphere coming...

If only it was as simple as that Routy.

However whilst those companies listed were driven by the enormous potential they possess and we were seen as having one product that could soon become obsolete, over the past few weeks I think that notion is starting to shift dramatically...

I find the lack of actual social media engagement interesting. A part of me wonders if the young who would usually be out with their pitchforks recognise the irony is too much this time. I mean, you've got to be pretty ignorant to be buying jeans for £8 and tops for a few quid and presume the producers and suppliers are having a jolly old time and earning a nice, liveable wage...

With the potential for the story to build again over the weekend I found it difficult to see any benefit to being in over the weekend. Let the dust settle at the start of the week and then reevaluate with a fresh pair of eyes...

I very much appreciate your posts seadoc, thank you for educating us. Your recent musings have given me added confidence that this is a good investment however at this level and I feel you're coming round to novacyt slowly. I understand that the lack of ability to patent genesig and primer design tests is a big factor in your decision making. And I fully understand why you shorted this stock up in the 400s back in April. Your point about having no moat is important but are you sure that's as important as you think it is right now?

You see fair value at 250 (~£170m mcap). You see the next bottom at 210 (~£140m mcap). But what we're now seeing is a difficulty for other companies that had shown amazing promise (look at avacta and genedrive) to muscle into the market. It's starting to look like this first mover advantage has not simply gained novacyt a £100m headstart but potentially a monopolistic advantage through the partnerships it has and its strong association with the WHO. You yourself agree that antigen testing has to be front and centre going forward and that this isn't going away for a long time...

We're not talking about normal times, we're talking about a pandemic where governments far and wide are throwing enormous amounts of money at it. We're seeing promises such as the £5b from the UK government to build up diagnostics in nations around the world. So I ask again, is the lack of moat and patent really that significant if novacyt continue to make millions and millions each week?

Interesting post seadoc, but I have a question for you.

I'm not in the camp that is so blown away by novacyt that I'd sell my house, my car and my dog to invest here. But I have felt for a good while now that the upside is far bigger than the downside. I like you see demand for testing staying high for the foreseeable future and it is highly likely novacyt are putting in place the sort of contracts that will cement solid cash generation into 2021.

So at £180m mcap I can't see what the reward is for you keeping half your short open?

What are you talking about? Cases are at a record high globally...

Far too many people seem to forget that investing is an alternative to saving your money in a cash ISA or putting it in a fixed three year savings account. You get somewhere between 0.5% and 3% a year from those options. The aim investing should be to beat that, ideally making around 10% a year. You aren't going to make 100% year in year out, it just doesn't happen.

Be patient.

How cheap did Acacia get these shares? Cheap enough to be able to sell and make a nice profit at 36p?

Good to see your opinion is a positive one again itshenderz after what seemed like an out of character few posts on Wednesday!

But why the drop?

This is a genuine question and would like some decent debate to be had.

I've been castigated on here a few times for being negative about the limpness of the share price and for calling out wildly inaccurate predictions. My personal view is that the share price movements are telling to a degree and should factor into someone's decision making. I believe that when you expect something to happen (take Ghia's prediction this week that we'd see a calm 10-20% rise before fireworks next week) and it doesn't it is sensible to assess why that is. If this occurs time and time again it makes sense to question whether your thinking is perhaps blinkered.

My view is this: If this week we had seen a move into the mid 40s most on here would be saying that this is positive and that investors were loading up for the news. Many would likely speculate that some information had slipped out seeing as Richard should have the COPD results by now. My argument is the opposite demands attention at least and debate.

Fireworks to come in the next two weeks that is for sure! GLA.