Member Info for Chrishar

It's also factually inaccurate. There are plenty of competing diagnostic companies such as GeneDrive, Avacta and then you have your antibody testers like ODX to name just three. So far none of them have managed to generate anywhere near as much revenue as novacyt and although it's still possible, currently none of them have made any meaningful breakthrough...

Synairgen SURELY know the copd results by now. Is it not therefore fair to assume that at the very least they are somewhat positive and are being used to bolster the case for emergency approval? If the results were simple poor they'd be no argument for holding back on their release?

If we get an rns confirming tieup/partnership, I can see this rising way beyond £3 initially as investors gamble on where this could end up...

It was a joke for goodness sake, to counter the original thread post!

Why the rise?

The volatility has significantly dampened down this morning, could be a good time to top up...

Let's wait and see, eh? It's down less than 2%.

I've noticed once a pattern has been established it usually continues until news i.e dragged down first thing followed by a steady rise.

For god's sake you're annoying CS. I've said it before and I'm happy to admit that imo the potential upside of investing in avacta is larger than in novacyt. The risk/reward however is much worse imo because ncyt has money coming in and has contracts in place into 2021 already.

If Avacta ends up being a better investment then fine. I don't have the time to fully research every single company so I'm sticking with novacyt and have reason to believe I will make a decent profit from here. I've invested a lot here and I don't think I would have the risk appetite to put as much into a company like avacta that promises so much but is still yet to deliver.

It's also important that the company appear to be knuckling down on the job at hand rather than driving shareholder value right now. They are at the forefront of dealing with a pandemic after all and need to be seen to be focused on public health rather than profits.

Ask yourself this Trendz... what would it take for you to lose a lot of money from here?

The current mcap is £206m
First half revenue was £63.3m (basically three and a half months of selling covid tests).
Growth has occurred six months in a row, Jan - June with June revenue coming in at £22.5m.

Most of this took place before demand for testing shot up and we scaled production up significantly. We are expected to make vastly more money in the second half of the year, of which coincides with a vastly improved testing systems and capacity in place around the world. On top of this we are involved in the care home clinical trial and have numerous tests coming to market very soon.

Of course it is possible for the next rns to show decreased sales and decreased demand but how likely is that really? The potential downside over the next few months is around 20%, the potential upside is immeasurable currently.

Wider global events are very much in our favour (sadly virus isn't going away and antigen pcr tests are still top of the agenda) so two things need to be evidenced for us to get a rerate here.

i) Most obviously we need to see what is happening on the sales side. We've been in the dark more or less since we scaled up to 10 million+ tests a month, so currently we could be fetching anywhere between £15m a month and £50m a month. Obviously where we fall on that range will be crucial. Now if the sales are closer to £50m a month I imagine we'd see a rerate from that alone - cash in the bank won't eclipse the market cap. But more likely revenue is around the £25m mark give or take £5m so I think we'd require:

(ii) An indication of where the revenue will come from in 2022 and beyond. However much money we make now we won't be a mid cap company unless we are able to make circa £50m profit a year going forward (£1b mcap P/E 20).

When you simplify it like this there's reasons to be optimistic. Neither of the above are far-fetched, we're simply waiting for our expectations to meet reality. GLA, hopefully our patience will be rewarded!

Knowing what Richard is like it wouldn't surprise me if we got an rns saying there's a slight delay if we don't get the COPD rns.

Still time for a holding rns to land, will be slightly frustrated if it doesn't as it helps to make sense of the price action.

I think the response used the words 'end of August'. Correct me if I'm wrong though.

To be fair to him he got 1.9 million of them at 8p. He was the largest shareholder in synairgen at one point didn't you know?

When I correctly predict share price movement I try to remind myself that I didn't really know and just got lucky but I think today's price action was about the most predictable I've ever seen...

Why would this be a dead cat bounce? The fall was due to panic selling, you could tell from the posters asking on advfn if a placing was about to come or whether there was a leak.

Normal service has resumed.

What is a dead cats bounce?

It's not a league table, it's a list of six.