Member Info for Chrishar

I tell you what gives me confidence... we've had little news since the half year trading update on the 13th July, certainly nothing sales related. If someone with inside info told me we wouldn't have any sales new for 6-8 weeks I'd probably consider selling up and buying back in 6 weeks later, and yet the sp has slowly risen still from 270 to over 300p.

This is a great sign imo and is well primed to explode if the long awaited news finally lands...

I know we've been here before but do you think this solid 5% rise today suggests investors are expecting an rns tomorrow? Or do you think it's simply the symbolism of entering September, a news-expectant month?

The problem I have is I really don't believe the theory that Motley Fool are intentionally deramping to get in themselves cheaper. I really don't. I also believe that they are a relatively benign outfit that make simple articles for inexperienced investors.

I'm therefore hoping that they're simply wrong. I personally feel that there is very little research put into synairgen and therefore they don't understand just how great the product is. They (the individual contributors that is) know little about the mounting evidence in support for interferon beta and know even less about the unique formulation that sng001 is. They don't know anything about Richard or the experience and pre-eminence of Holgate and others involved in the company. They probably barely even know about the imminent COPD trial readout...

They are merely going on the fact that most biotechs fail and that there are hundreds of companies in the race for covid therapeutics.

No no, don't get me wrong, I'm jumping ahead to 2022. Right now with these extreme sales figures the best we could hope for is something like 5 P/e-wise. The stock market is forward looking however and so once this all settles down the value of the company will be based on long term profits... this won't be the same novacyt as in 2019, this will be a company that has built its brand globally and has upwards of £100m in cash in the bank to grow into an leading diagnostics company.

I am saying that to be a £600m mcap company we need to be able to make profits of around £20m a year post covid...

Just to make it clear the Chris in question is Chrisengland!

It's a shame crucial detail like this is left out from articles such as those appearing on the Motley Fool last week. I've been listening recently to a weekly podcast on vox markets and it's fair to say that many investment analysts really aren't very bright people. They seem to have investing strategies/principles that they are uncomfortable to deviate away from, such as only invest in companies that have shown years of growth. I absolutely get why they personally would steer well clear of AIM biotechs like synairgen but to then go ahead and warn others from investing seems arrogant and ignorant.

I should also add, we are completely debt-free. Making millions and completely debt-free...how many companies can say this?

Slipperz, please can you explain how in this instance I am going to make less profit? Go on, I'm interested...

I was trying to point out that either skillfully or luckily, I called the short, sharp drop and was able to sell and then buy back in much cheaper 15 minutes later. I'm sure if I did this on every bit of negative news I'd make a humongous loss long term, but I don't. This just happens to be a stock that can be shaken down rather rigorously with negative press currently but as I was trying to say, I think as time goes on these reports/stories will have less and less of an effect.

I made a post the other day that got around 20 recommends so I'll reiterate it here somewhat. I think we're worrying a bit too much about who gets what contracts...

At the moment we're looking at profit for 2020 anywhere between £80m and £200m and let's say something similar for 2021 before covid's significance significantly wanes. At this point we'd have two solid years of profit making and at least £100m in cash (maybe two, three times that) to transform the business into a leading international diagnostics company. Growth companies see P/E ratios in the 100s sometimes but let's be conservative and imagine a P/E of 25 as we'd still need to demonstrate where the growth was coming from...

£200m mcap (where we are now) = £8m profit a year
£400m mcap (Doubling our money) = £16m profit a year
£600m mcap (Tripling our money) = £24m profit a year.
£800m mcap (400% returns) = £32m profit a year

Does this seem that far-fetched to you considering we'll have millions for R&D, acquisitions, jvs and an already bolstered workforce? This example is using a reasonably low P/E ratio as many innovate pharmas around the £600m mcap mark are still yet to generate a profit...

Has anyone had experience of shares like this in the past? I took the gamble yesterday of selling my entire holding when the news broke, not because I was worried about the future of boohoo but because I anticipated a panic sell. I had a tiny holding compared to others on here but sold my £5k at 317p and then bought £5.5k back at 285p followed by another £2.5k at 279p.

I think each new (regurgitated) report will have less and less of an effect on the sp and even this time I probably got lucky.

Every PI seems to think that share price reactions are identical every time - they aren't. Last time the allegations were a far bigger shock hence the enormous and prolonged fall. This one will almost certainly be acute (and probably already bottomed). You might think you're showing patience by waiting til next week but you'll probably just miss out on this discounted price...

Pretty sure we'll see some massive buys go through at the end of the day at these prices...

This is not the same as a few months back when the share price tanked... don't go waiting for this to bottom out 30% lower as it's highly unlikely to.

This is such a stressful share. I got a guardian notification on my phone, sold my holding immediately at 317p and then took a gamble, buying it all back and more at 285p.

Money to be made by reacting first to these news articles!

Took a gamble and sold out the moment the news landed on my phone - £3.17

Now I know obviously, obviously, obviously we are in absolutely no way comparable to a behemoth like Astra Zeneca. But think about this for a moment:
AZN 2019 profit - £1.23b, mcap - £110b
NCYT ~ '20 profit - £120m, mcap - £210m . That's right, profit is estimated to be 1/10th of AZN this year, mcap is 500 times lower.

Maybe we'll have to wait til we've actually made that profit but can you imagine what could happen to our sp if so???

The life-force that is Ghia - he buys in and the share price immediately rallies!

So you're the background investor buying blocks of 10k? ;)

Expected worse than that! S'all good.

Major ones have always been 7am.