Member Info for Chrishar

What interests me is how you come to the conclusion that the sp should fall? Have you got much of a background in investing?

NCYT is currently valued at £210m. Profit this year is going to be somewhere between £70m and £150m to use an extremely wide range (half year profit was £41m and second year profit expected to be much higher).

You are assuming the sp will fall so let's say that's by 20% and you value the company at £180m . That means that once this settles down and we're back to post-covid normality you think that novacyt will be say making £9m a year on say a P/E ratio of 20? I mean, really? With £150m+ in the bank to transform the company, you don't think they can turn into anything bigger than that?!

I see them able to use the cash to develop into a leading international diagnostics company that can be highly profitable. Even £30m a year turnover would push them towards a £1b valuation.

Miggy, thanks a lot for your explanation.

What does this sentence mean? - 'However, the unexpectedly low exacerbation rate (<10%) in the INEXAS trial population suggests that the economic viability of the drug in an asthma indication would be limited'.

To be honest, do you know how much added value this new respiratory testing panel adds to novacyt? Without that how can we realistically expect a large increase in the sp? I certainly have absolutely no idea what this means revenue-wise...

It's going to take a material order from the UK government, from France, or an impressive sales update to shake the sp out of this range.

It's pretty clear that the company is going places and the share price will rise from here. Really the question is how high... £4-£5 by the end of the year or something more dramatic than that? That'll depend on a number of factors but unless you're off chasing even bigger returns somewhere else this is a pretty safe bet imo...

I agree Jimmy. IMO this is still a risky investment and the motley fool promotes dull, bog standard blue chips that will likely return you 5% per year. If you've done your own research you can read the articles and feel relieved by how little meat on the bone there is and quickly come to the conclusion that you need not worry.

I guess it's a shame if it scares off a few PIs but essentially the sp will end up where it should be...

It's funny how deathly quiet derampers are when things take a turn for the better. I can almost feel them watching the sp eagerly, waiting for a dip so they can quickly join back in and sew some doubt.

Picking up in France nicely. Up 8% and rising steadily...

To be fair I believe the investor relations team have been quoted as saying both summer and end of August so it's not absolutely conclusive. It's fairly obvious that the intention was to release news by tomorrow but no news doesn't necessarily mean bad news is incoming.

Still, like others on here, I imagine we'll have something before tomorrow's COB.

I'll continue to trust rns or no rns!

The government are constantly chasing soundbites... and this is one that would look very favourable. I reckon they'll save it for a few more weeks yet though.

This is good news but not enough to spike the share price imo. However the ducks are lining up and if it's enough to shift sentiment back in our favour then that would be brilliant as we move into September...

Over the past few months I've dipped in and out a couple of times and always managed to make a good 10%. Can someone try and explain what's going on? I'm trying to decide whether to buy back in for the longer term now but my mind is pulled in either direction.

The increased II holdings is clearly very positive and the only broker forecast I can see (Peel Hunt) is a whopping £1.80. But the short position on short tracker seems extreme to me... the second most shorted company in the footsie? Really??? Clearly if cine pulls through this period and the shorters are forced to buy back this is flying, but they must feel there's a chance cine won't survive?

2002, not 2012*

Woodstock, I wouldn't normally respond to something like this but you have repeated the point time and time again about no vaccine for the first SARS virus and therefore unlikely to produce a vaccine for Sars CoV 2... the reasoning isn't valid. The Sars virus of 2012 died out naturally and there were only 8000 cases globally - it wasn't even in circulation for a full year. Read this if you want to understand more: https://theconversation.com/the-mysterious-disappearance-of-the-first-sars-virus-and-why-we-need-a-vaccine-for-the-current-one-but-didnt-for-the-other-137583

With the combination of hospital and home trials we'll have a larger phase II study than their phase III

That was true of the last few weeks donnodertrader, looking back on it with the luxury of hindsight. You need to pre empt these things ideally if you're focused on the short term, not wait around and then jump ship once the share price has done its drifting...

If you like me believe there's loads going on behind the scenes then it could be the time to go searching under the mattress, in the dvd cases, behind the bookshelf for any spare cash you have at these lower prices.

Sure that will raise the average but it's a very small order - £35700s worth if I'm not mistaken. I'm sticking with £5 a test for my calculations and will consider it a low estimate.

It's an interesting psychological phenomenon and I see this play out time and time again on AIM. Anytime there is a longer gap between news than is expected, be it two weeks or even ten days, investors get the jitters and the sp drifts down considerably from highs. In most cases there's nothing wrong at all but once suspicion has creeped in there's no changing course til news.