Member Info for Chris0610

I think the magnitude of what’s going on here is anticipated, but not yet proven (although getting there). I think come February/March when Phase 2 is complete and all assays are received and modelled, we will start to see increasing interest from external media etc. which will start to build real traction. Updated JORC/MRE/model will be the cherry on the cake. It’s an almost non stop steady news flow until that point, so it’s hard to not see a continued steady rise in SP over the mid-term until the end of Q1.

I must say, I think this is the most exciting share I’ve ever had an interest in. Whatever happens, I certainly feel like I’m getting my money’s worth in entertainment along the way!

Markeurasia - It’s been literally three business days since the last update! Hardly fair or objective to now describe the news flow as ‘nothing’. We’re in the middle of a drilling campaign and news is released as and when it’s available, so how can you simultaneously describe that as ramping? There is news on additional drill holes and assays due any day now.

If I was to introduce any scepticism at all at this stage it wouldn’t be on the probability of proving up the 2m+ t, it would be on the eventual valuation. A couple of times on AIM I have held shares that look certain winners, only to be stung by below expected valuations, always ‘justified’ by a myriad of reasons. I’m absolutely bullish and confident of a multi-bagger at these prices, but this is the one thing in the back of my mind which might limit any top valuation I’ve been hoping for. Looking forward to the next set of assays and hole 25 news!

WillowTree, our resident Nostradamus (Onedaymaybe) hasn’t been seen for some time. The share price has been in positive territory since they left!

Trying to keep up. Am I correct in stating that completion of holes 22 and 23 has yet to be RNS’d, yet they are presented as complete on the latest drill map at 810m (hole 22) and 868m (hole 23)?

On share price movement, it looks like 6p is quite a hard nut to crack, but hoping for a nice run to 7p or 8p when it’s finally breached!

Chris

Perhaps with holes 10 (768m), 11 (673m) & 12 (498m) getting progressively shorter, the assays may arrive at the same time and provide somewhat of a news ‘bomb’!

(Accidentally hit send)…20%? I think it’s been discussed that splitting the resource wouldn’t be favourable for any party. That leaves it to just be sold to AA. Not only would what is deemed as a fair price for the resource already have been agreed (therefore AA may be able to justify a similar price for the 20%), they would know that xtr have limited leverage with regards to bidding from an external third party to drive the price up. Selling the 20% to AA at the same pro rata price without too much fuss seems like it might be the most logical action for both parties. Although I would love for xtr to be able to somehow drive additional value out of the remaining 20%!

Steve, just a thought on the 80%/20%. Although theoretically the 20% would demand a premium, I was thinking about how it would actually work in practice. Once the 80% is all buttoned up based on a mutually agreed fair valuation, would we expect there to be much external interest on the remaining

We may not have seen anything explosive in terms of share price reaction just yet but the rise over the last month has been most welcome and is more sustainable than a spike. If we see +3% rises every day we will hit 10p before the end of November.

Chris

Steve - Agree with your comments, just found it hard to imagine the drafting of the agreement would have been dictated by/in favour of XTR/Prospect versus the multi-billion mining major. I think I was envisaging a 100% sale not falling under the buy-back agreement thus extendable to third parties. However, almost treating it as two transactions makes more sense from both sides. Once/if Anglo activate the purchase of the 80% under the agreement, it’s unlikely a third party would want the remaining 20% in isolation anyway, so logical that also goes to AA. However, once it gets to that point I’d argue that the 20% just goes for the same value as the 80%, as it would be hard to objectively value differently once both parties had agreed on the ‘fair’ independent valuation for the first 80% (particularly as external interest in 20% at that stage is likely to be muted).

Montyfino - I’m aware XTR are keen to prove this up. I don’t think AA, the £40b market cap mining company are going to be ‘caught off guard’ or ‘get in a panic’ over an asset for which they have a buy-back agreement in place, nor do we need them to. There’s plenty of scope for a deal to be done which satisfies both parties mutually and substantially.

Chris

Hi all

Quick question to clarify the particulars of the buy-back.

We know that the 80% buy-back mechanism is triggered if a) 2m tons contained CuEq is identified, or b) there is a decision to mine. It would appear that any kind of JV with XTR maintaining a 20% stake in Racecourse wouldn’t be favoured by either AA or XTR. However, a proposal to purchase 100% would supersede the original buy-back mechanism, therefore opening up to bids from third parties?
1) Could we assume that AA would somehow be front of the queue if we were talking 100% sale and somehow exclude third party bids (even if not explicitly mentioned in the limited buy-back verbiage in the presentations)?
2) Isn’t it a little strange that AA would have drafted terms based on 80% with no provision for 100%, if it is indeed the case that an offer for 100% would allow others to the negotiating table?

Personally, I find it hard to believe AA wouldn’t somehow be in the driving seat if we were talking 100%, even if it was just first refusal to purchase at the independent valuation price without tendering to third parties.

Welcome any thoughts!

Chris

“ And as for proving up an asset of more than the 2 million tons - I would imagine that would be a total waste of time and not increase the share price or m/cap by even 1 cent.”

Okay, that’s it, troll confirmed!

Enjoying the dispersed nature of those 13 holes over the SE IP anomaly, with some long intercepts from West to East we could be looking to cover new ground twice the size of the existing inferred resource.

Re holes 20 and 21, the RNS states 15 holes have been completed, so I would presume an additional RNS is….imminent. Exciting times.

Chris

Thanks, howezap. I wanted to set a nice pessimistic baseline :)

2mt Cu x $8k/t x 2% in-ground value = approx. 28p for Bushranger alone.

Chris

Brilliant, thanks theiceberg.

Based on the initial observations during drilling and the latest assay results, I’m optimistically looking out for approx. 250m @ approx. 0.5% CuEq from hole 007.

Chris

Hole 2 and 3 assay results were approx. 13 weeks after the completion of hole 3. Approx. the same timeframe after completion of all holes is around 6th July. Considering everything else also underway, I anticipate significant news flow over the next 3 weeks. Shortly after will be the commencement of further drilling. Hopefully this will be a catalyst for some upward movement in the share price.

Chris

I was perhaps naive in thinking most holders here were in it for the Bushranger long game. And by long game we’re only talking circa 12 months. If fireworks and buy-outs are expected every RNS then I suppose pullbacks in the share price are inevitable.

Taking a look at what’s on offer here, it still looks as though we are conservatively looking at 1mt*$8k*1.5% which is circa 10p excluding other assets. It’s not the AA 2mt, but you can be sure it will be snapped up by themselves or someone else in the current climate. What’s very much still on the table is something like 2mt*10k*2% which puts you closer to around 34p.

I for one will be holding for the end game.

IMHO

Either way, we are now 6+ weeks on from the final drill so the whole bloody lot must be... imminent!

Can we temper the subjective, unconstructive short term price predictions; they seem to be getting more frequent and less accurate. Even if I do admire the optimism and enthusiasm.

Most people here aren’t trading daily/weekly and see the true underlying value here, which will become more apparent as and when news is released over the coming weeks. Second guessing which days we are going to end blue is irrelevant.

For what it’s worth, I have a feeling that perhaps Colin will be releasing assay results in “batches” from hole 2 onwards hence the apparent delay, as the latest RNS and some here have already alluded to. I think this would be a shrewd move to stem some of the short term volatility we have been seeing during the upward trajectory of this share.

Lastly, I’d like to thank all of those who have posted objective and well informed posts on this board, it’s certainly gone a long way to expanding my knowledge and excitement for this share.

Chris