Member Info for Chris0610

I can’t actually believe how long the drilling has gone on for, it’s the gift that keeps on giving!

I’m optimistic on a positive outcome mid-term, but I’m not surprised that the share price still isn’t moving significantly. Although there have been solid intercepts, the maths to get to 2mt contained copper still can’t be underestimated. When you look at the assay summary to date and take a rudimentary average of 0.25% CuEq (for illustration purposes), we need to be averaging that grade across every single m2 of ore across a 800mt ore body to achieve 2mt. Not that this isn’t achievable, but the model/JORC is needed before there’s any high degree of confidence this has been achieved.

I’m also sceptical on the expected timescales for the sale. Although the conversations with AA could start at any moment and the timescale to show interest may well be as short as a week, the process of a sale is surely going to take much longer. To purchase an asset worth hundreds of millions requires lengthy due diligence, internal approval and process, financing etc. I’d love a quick turn around from the point of 2mt as much as the next person but my expectations are more end of the year as opposed to end of the month. Of course if anyone has any evidence of an asset of similar size being offered for sale and completed within a number of weeks it would be great to see!

Chris

“With few new projects globally in the pipeline, increasing permitting issues and jurisdictional risk, and declining copper grades across the industry, we believe that there are significant challenges ahead to close the projected supply deficit.”

Da_Gee I’m aware the market is volatile and patience is required through a drill campaign, neither of those things are my issue. A basic level of communication is all I ask so that shareholders are satisfactorily informed about what’s going on. How/where was the market informed of drilling being paused in December?

For the market to be informed that drilling is restarting, the market surely needs to be informed that said drilling has stopped in the first place.

Regardless of potential longer term prospects here, shocking communication like this just shows laziness at best, contempt for shareholders at worst. No help when building an investment case. Alas, I’ve been invested a while and will wait it out until the drill results.

To be fair with the way the markets have been this week it’s probably for the best. Would be good to get a couple of bits of news next week though.

I can’t be the only person who is struggling to keep track of drilling progress and what’s planned….?

Steve’s last paragraph hit the nail on the head. This is a multi-bag ‘opportunity’. Until it’s fully realised, of course it only remains just that, an opportunity. Many see it as a very good opportunity and have invested on that basis. Some are sceptical that the size of the opportunity will be fully realised. At the end of the day all of the objective information is out there readily accessible for you to make your own personal investment decision on, as we all have. I personally wouldn’t say ‘it’s 10 bagged already so the opportunity is gone’. An investment decision made in the present shouldn’t be based solely on what’s happened in the past, it should be based on what the investment case is at this point in time, and I think it’s a very good one.

Inspirednotion any chance you could post some more tosh? Up 40% within 2 hours of your last insightful post.

Thanks in advance.

Westlad - I referenced 0.4% as the average required based on an assumed 500mt ore body, not the cut-off.

It’s only first refusal for AA at 2mt, not an obligation to purchase. It might just be favourable to have a model that returns 1.95mt, avoids the obligation to AA and opens it up to the total market, with an undefined Ascot resource as a kicker!

Thanks for the posts, Andy. No more hypotheticals from me, I think it’s clear that assays are king so I’ll hold any further estimations on my part until they’re all in and we have the updated model!

Agree it’s likely Ascot pushes past the threshold, but it would be great to hit 2mt from just Racecourse. I know the decision to mine lays down some additional groundwork that would make the whole packaging more attractive regardless of the overall contained copper figure, but I’ve just been wondering if Colin has parallel pathed this option because the 2mt might not quite be a forgone conclusion (without further significant drilling of Ascot).

I’m cautious of posting anything remotely contrary to the positivity of the board but this is something I’ve already mentioned and still don’t have clarity on.

The general consensus is that the Racecourse ore body is around 500mt, which would require an average grade of 0.4% copper to achieve the 2mt contained copper. However, we aren’t seeing an overall average that high in the assays. We know grade isn’t everything, but actually if the ore body is 500mt (tbc) and we have a 2mt target then it is important, to a point where we need to be averaging 0.4% copper. A cut-off of 0.2% or 0.15% is great but again, where are the significant intercepts of 0.4%-0.6% to bring the average up to achieve the 2mt from 500mt of ore? Anything significantly over 500mt feels a little optimistic at this point.

Just an objective observation based on everything that has been revealed so far!

I’ve never understood how being Chairman of so many companies can be justified, Colin is surely spread too thinly to give them all the attention they deserve.

Does anyone know if AA were to have reached out to engage in preliminary negotiations, would this cause an RNS blackout (with the exception of personnel changes etc.)? If the news flow has stopped because everything is now just going to be revealed as part of the model, it would have been nice to have been told that. So that only leaves the positive and forgivable situation that AA are now in the picture. Notwithstanding a bumper news week next week.

Have we had some assays go walk about? Over 3 weeks since the last assay release, they must be stacking up by now!

On another note, I’m not a ‘chartist’ but it looks like we may have somewhat of a ‘falling wedge’ pattern forming when you look at the share price over the last 6 months. More buyers happy to come in at the current support levels and less exiting when we get to around the 6p mark. We could be a coiled spring ready to unravel and break through 6p on a couple more bits of good news!

We know there is a lot of work going on behind the scenes but, as has previously happened, I think the issue here is poor management of expectations. Assay turn around was expected to be 6-8 weeks. The only update we have had regarding timings is that we now have a dedicated lab and results should be coming through thick and fast. If anything, they have slowed further still since then with 4 holes +10 weeks and 1 at 14 weeks and counting.

It’s all well and good being relaxed about the share price drop, but that has been the narrative for almost the entirety of the last 12 months drilling. I don’t think it’s too much to expect consistent communication, management of expectations and by now, somewhat of a PR push to start showing the market what we really have. Of course willing to eat my words if that’s what we do see over the next few weeks!

Can’t help but think this project just desperately needs another 30 minute session with Jeremy and team to contextualise all of the drilling and assays now. We could have a thousand RNS’s with more drilling and assay results but it’s clear this is little more than meaningless for anyone other than those following the story very closely here.

This isn’t a deramp, just a genuine question.

I believe a fair assumption being thrown around was 500m tons of ore at 0.44% CuEq (not including SE) giving approx. 2.2mt contained copper. While the assays are all showing a lot of material above 0.2% or even 0.15% cut-off, there still seems to be very little around/above 0.44% (Hole 8 probably showing best grades). Are we expecting:

1) The ore body to be > 500m tons to achieve the 2mt contained copper at lower grades
2) Some of the upcoming assays to be significantly above 0.44% CuEq and bring the overall average up
3) Any alternative explanation that someone would like to share

Now I know any talk of ore size and assays need to be taken within context and are forming part of a bigger picture, but the assay x ore body mathematics isn’t adding up for me yet, which may also be the case for any external potential investors.

Looking forward to the thoughts of others!

Come on Colin, old chap. We know it was your birthday last week, but no rest for the wicked. Hole 16 was reported as completed over 8 weeks ago now so we’d love to see assays for holes 11, 12, 14, 15 & 16.

Also, very thankful for the numerous Geology lessons we get on this board, but also noticed we could do with some on literacy - no offence intended:

Where = “Where the bloody ‘ell did all this copper come from?!”
Were = “Were you expecting it to be that big, Jeremy?”

They’re = “Ohhh, they’re working like billy-o, Zak”
There = “There must be an end to this copper somewhere, but we haven’t found it yet”
Their = “They won’t be getting their hands on it cheaply, Zak, I’m telling you that now!”

You’re = “You’re going to need a bigger computer screen, Quinton, we can’t fit all these ‘oles in!”
Your = “What was the name of your favourite curry again, Colin? I think we’ll name the SE anomaly after that because things are really heating up down there!”