Member Info for chilting

The charts are recording the negative sentiment caused by all the adverse macro - basically the bear market.
EQT's SP is getting hammered at the moment but its not the company at fault.
In fact the only positive that featured on the charts since April was the response to the final results.

Its reasonable to assume that when market conditions improve the SP will respond very favourably, the problem is that its far from clear when that will happen, so the negativity in the charts may well give an insight into what can be expected in the coming months - in other words its likely to get worst before it gets better.

Electric trams are certainly the answer on high capacity routes in towns and cities.
The other flexible option is green hydrogen powered Buses.
The tech has been fully developed to run buses using hydrogen powered fuel cells - the buses are identical to diesel buses - only the power systems are different.
It would be comparatively easy to add a hydrogen fuelling point at every bus depot in the UK and there is no reason why every route and school bus in the UK cannot be run on hydrogen within 10 years.

The current energy shortages are mainly the result of a substantial slowdown of investment in oil and gas over the last 5 years.
Also development of renewables has been too slow to cover the shortfall.
We tend to get a distorted view of the development of renewables in the UK because our offshore wind program has been so successful, but Germany and China, for example, are still reliant on coal.

The pace of development towards renewables is increasing as the tech improves and after 2030 the situation should start to resolve itself if the development continues. But the oil and gas industry sees the current situation as a green light to increase investment and Governments are now encouraging this fast track development.

The real challenge now is to reset the agenda back to renewables, hopefully if the war in Ukraine ends this task will be easier but don't count on it.

Increasing supply of oil and gas increases consumption again as the price of oil and gas fall it also blocks the development of renewables.

So enduring high energy costs and redirecting capital investment into renewables, or at least cleaning up carbon fuel usage, is the only way forward - keep planting the trees Neil.

Neil
just one word of caution - its far from clear that OPEC can provide sufficient extra capacity to supply demand, especially as US supply hasn't increased to pre Covid levels because of a reluctance to over commit.
Back in January the consensus was that supply and demand would balance by 2023 and supply would start to outpace demand but that was before Ukraine.

Perhaps Jörn Rausing is buying?

Deutsche Bank have retained their buy rating and left the SP guidance unchanged at 3800p - their rating is unchanged since May 2021.

Yes, the picture is certainly improving but still fragile.
It would be good to see Jörn Rausing adding to his holding - that would certainly improve the momentum, give others confidence to buy and would probably encourage some of the shorts to close.

I think Kroger could be the key to a recovery in the SP as the macro improves.
Kroger have said that it is cheaper for them to gain market share with Ocado Solutions than physical stores and that was before Ocado Reimagined was launched.

Also, when Ocado Reimagined launched the Kroger CEO took centre stage - listen from 7.58 on the presentation.

https://www.ocadogroup.com/about-us/our-stories/ocado-reimagined/

Good to see a very positive trading update from Greggs this morning - a good barometer on the High Street.
Also their full year remains unchanged.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/GRG/trading-update/15452745

I have no problem with the VCP and without Tim Steiner Ocado wouldn't exist.
The VCP doesn't just benefit Tim Steiner, it also incentivises all the staff and will eventually benefit all shareholders when the SP recovers.

The first target is for the SP to lift above 150p and stay there.
The results will be good but any negatives in the outlook could certainly sour the mood.

My rather pessimistic 140-165p range still stands for the rest of 2022 unless we see a dramatic change in global economic sentiment - a coup to overthrow Putin by the Russian military would do wonders for the global economy.

Thanks Neil - that seems rather unnecessary.

The real question is did the market itself bottom out this past trading week?

We can but hope.

I don't see the Ukraine war finishing anytime soon but it now seems much more likely to be restricted to the east of Ukraine, so it could become less relevant.

Also it looks like Hungry will block a ban on oil exports to the EU - they currently take 50% of Russian oil exports via a pipeline that they could sell on - so, if the markets see that sanctions are not effective the trade negatives from the war may be discounted. Especially if the grain exports continue from Russia and Ukraine.

It looks good to me - I guess its more or less a done deal.

https://458oxfordstreet.co.uk/

Note that Citadel increased their short on Mon and Wed this week.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0031274896/

Much better this morning - just keep everything crossed.

Assuming oil prices cannot go lower is a fool hardy position to take.

Any number of factors could push oil prices down, not least a global recession.

As usual its very prudent to invest in a wide range of stocks and not to take the arrogant position that you know best and put all your eggs in one basket - I have learnt this lesson more than once in the last five years or so and never use the strong buy tag anymore.

Add AIM to the mix in our current volatile markets and you have a recipe for total unpredictability - I have no idea where CWR is going.

hedged
Buying at these levels has to be a good bet for the long term.
We can hope that we know where the bottom is, but its just pure luck if we find it.
Also expect the unexpected - someone putting a bullet through Putin's head for example.

The only good thing about the market at the moment is that it is predictable.
Looking at my watch list this week its quite easy to see where stocks are heading on an hour by hour basis in relation to each other and the global economic news.
It does underline just how attached they are to the macro news and give encouragement that when things do eventually turn for the better, we should see a big rally.
Meanwhile we also keep an eye on the charts and wait.