Member Info for chilting

Hello Matrix

Keep everything crossed lets hope - both the cruise ships are going north up the Norwegian coast so it will be interesting to see how Oceania's deviates.

I have been looking at other pieces by the FT journalist and it seems to me that the hatchet piece he did on Sirius is very typical of his journalistic style.

This is probably the best example -

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/07/12/1531368000000/A-brief-history-of-Tesla-and-the-number-500-000/

The news from Israel may explain why ICL are keeping Boulby open ???

With all the uncertainty over the permitted production levels from their Red Sea operations it may be that they think that they will need the Boulby production to cover a shortfall - just a thought.

More on the same subject from Reuters - not exactly a glowing report of ICL's environmental credentials - ICL sound like a typical slash and burn type outfit !!!

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-israel-deadsea-mining-insight/israel-seeks-early-re-tender-of-mining-rights-to-shore-up-dead-sea-idUKKBN1KX069

The market only understands one thing and that is profit and it wont see that until the mine has been up and running for a year or so. They have little understanding of technology - new products and new technology are simply risk to them. The FT article was a simple knee jerk reaction from the financial establishment.

Make no mistake it is the small investors who are driving this project, as they have been from the start. We have seen very little money directly from the institutions other than what private investors have chosen to add, maybe that will change after stage 2 but I rather doubt it.

Anglia is just finishing loading then moving to the anchorage just outside the port.

Oceania is approaching her destination, Kristiansand at very low speed.

Nasen Spirit is just coming into Roterdam to offload.

Its all very slow ……..

Personally I think the main risk is substantial construction delays leading to financial problems.

Then we could see the likes of ICL pushing in to grab a bargain.

At the moment all is positive and the BOD are doing a great job all round.

I think that it is the value of the pound against other currencies will have far more relevance to Sirius over the years ahead and it is something that will probably be a main factor for movements in the SP when production gets going.

As an exporter I think Sirius has a lot to gain from a fragile pound but we cannot guarantee that that will always be the case. The last thing that we would want is for the pound to become a haven currency like the Swiss Franc. However, I think that Brexit has sealed the pounds fate for the foreseeable future.

These are all questions that would have been settled during Torp negotiations - there is no indication that post Brexit the UK will be imposing tariffs on China or anyone else.

As for the Chinese imposing tariffs on the UK that is ridiculous - they export far more to us than we export to them.

However it may stop Sirius signing Torps with EU counties - if indeed that want to take that route.

avocet
That is simple scaremongering.

stickfloat
You make a valid point and I think Brexit has probably hampered Sirius with Torps deals - particularly in the EU zone.

But look at it this way, Sirius is very nearly over the finishing line despite Brexit - this has to be a major achievement.

What ever damage Brexit does to the rest of the economy it looks like Sirius will pull through and maybe even benefit as an exporter, with a weak pound looking to be the norm for the long term.

There is a chance that the shutdown planned for September has been brought forward ???

This from the February ops update - no mention in the May update.

"A scheduled shutdown of approximately two weeks is planned for April, primarily to undertake performance improving work scopes and minor commissioning activities. A further maintenance shutdown of approximately one week is currently planned for September."

Maybe for final commisioning - it would fit with the Q3 estimate from Bumi ???

The only two shuttle tankers that could be in range for the early part of next week are Navion Oceania and Navion Anglia.

Several others are on their way to port with loads but we would have to wait until the end of the week before they had time to get to Kraken.

Next is Navion Anglia - just started to unload in Rotterdam.

We also have Heather Knutsen - she should have finished offloading in Rotterdam quite soon - I still think she is the front runner.

Stena Natalita is just leaving MacDuff - she is a longshot for Kraken but you never know !!!

We don't have a pattern established for bigger loads - the last one was the biggest for some time - but that could be the case.

The complexity of AK and the field does seem to lead to inconsistent production rates rather than any general drop in production - we should probably look at production rates over six months rather than just a few loads.

Yes, hopefully but its a bit of a strange route - more likely Oceania is heading for a Norwegian field.

Its now looking like a bigger gap than usual between loads but the last load of near to 600k probably cleared AK out.

It looks like we are waiting for Heather - currently in Rotterdam.

Also lots more action in Scapa Flo with more tankers on the way.

Just poor AIS.

Stena Sirita has gone into the terminal at Sture - that rules her out.