Member Info for chilting

I think that MW probably is the algobot trader but that is a guess - total shorts on Euroclear were 2.29% at the end of January and MW were 1.09% at that time - we have observed shorts closing since then and MW are now down to 0.99%

Ironically MW first started shorting Enquest in January 2017 when the SP was at its three year high of 50.98p, they were active until March 2017 when the SP dropped to around 40p. Then they dropped off the radar below 0.5%.

In June 2018 they reappeared with the SP at around 32p and after last September's rally when the SP managed 40p, they have had the field almost to themselves and have certainly played a part, I think, in pushing the SP below 20p - but their "luck" has been the erroneous broker ratings.

I think ICL have got their eyes firmly on the very lucrative market for their Polysulphate mixes. They will I think build a new factory on Teesside to manufacture these products and eventually turn to SM for Polyhalite and close Boulby.

I haven't seen a wholesale price list for Polysulphate but judging it against other products it must be in excess of £50 for 25kg.

Kraken
Petronordic only services BP Foinaven.

acchi
Yes, nearer to 35k if its this weekend.

However work on DC4 could delay the next hook up???

Yes, last tanker was 11th Feb - 10 days - so hopefully we should get a hook up by early next week.

The most likely candidate is Heather Knutsen - she has just arrived at McDuff after a very slow passage from Rotterdam - so it could be a few days.

The trouble is that when Brent is on the slide and volume drops MW can easily manipulate the SP to supress it - as they did recently to hold the SP below 20p.

They are greatly aided by erroneous broker reports that are liable to become self fulfilling unless we see a rise in Brent and a corresponding rise in volume.

The good news is that full year results due in March should go a long way to breaking this trend and the SP could fly.

One little bit of dilution that could be welcome news is a very small rights issue - it wouldn't raise much money but it would give existing shareholders a nice little boost to their investment when the SP starts to fly after stage 2 - also it could be timed to complete in the new tax year and go some way to reducing the negative impact from other equity raised.

I think that we are getting a much better indication now that demand for the end product is going to be high and that SM will be able to sell as much as can be produced from day one.

So the onus is now on getting the project up and running so that the revenue stream can play its part in part financing the final development.

Dilution is unfortunately a fact of life for all growth companies - the hope here is that it is kept to a minimum and that there is no need for an open offer.

SM have clearly defined what level of debt they are happy to service, unfortunately with the cost overruns announced last autumn they haven't quite managed to fund the project without needing to raise more equity.

To suggest that an even larger proportion of the capital needed could have been funded by raising even more equity misses the point that this route would almost certainly have been unsuccessful - that would be one hell of a lot of dilution!

So we will have to accept some dilution - hopefully not an open offer!!! - the pot will be getting bigger so the SP will continue to rise but down the line dividends will be smaller - unless SM does a share buy back in the distant future.

I would take a punt on an accelerated book build - so look out for an RNS at market close as well as 7am.

The SP did rise by nearly 1p after 3pm so there is a chance that the larger trades towards the end of the day were in fact shorts closing.

I think that ICL will continue to build their polysulphate brand and at some stage they may well build a new factory on Teesside to maximise its potential.

Then when SM are in full production they will stop selling raw polyhalite and just concentrate on their polysulphate brand.

Then eventually they will close Boulby and buy raw polyhalite from SM.

I think that it is important to point out that ICL are able to offer this range because they are a fertiliser manufacturer and have access to all the constituents of these compound mixes.

It reamains to be seen if SM develop this wide product portfolio, but at the moment the priority is of course Poly4.

I have had this one in my bottom draw since I first started buying in during July 2017 - I am still 65% down - but its staying there - lots more to come - eventually.

The time lines are simply tethered to how long it takes Bankers, Bureaucrats and Solicitors to do their jobs - they only work on one speed - slow!!

Yes, much better - at long last !!!

Just keep everything thing crossed - if the SP can hold this level till stage 2 is announced we will be doing well - even if it stretches into Q2 - the more boring the better in my view.

I guess the nature of the trial means that they will need to use much smaller vehicles and until they can prove it is a success Ocado won't commit to buying their own vehicles and using Ocado staff for deliveries. It will be more like a groceries taxi service.

It seems that the institutions have now stopped selling.

I cannot see the logic for others to sell - the SP can only recover from this point after falling below the rising trend line simply because of the institutional selling.

Maybe the sellers don't understand that Breedon is a growth company.

John
After the resulting drop in the SP as a result of the RNS update at the end of January, I think that the last thing we need is another RNS. The next RNS has to be positive financial news.

The news flow from SM regarding the construction progress is fantastic and the media interest has to be positive in the final push for stage 2.

As I said earlier the update was looking back on 2018 - a transitional year for ITX - it was never going to be a great read.

All the potential comes in 2019 - staring with the Nouryon deal.

Investors brought into ITX for its potential in 2019 - why are they selling now - not logical !!!