Member Info for chilting

Hello MO

Check out this video - from 3mins 45 seconds for comparison to Gas Turbine and Diesel engine - one of the most exciting projects is a trial with Weichai Power in China for a range extender for buses - powered by natural gas.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/220152/ceres-power-making-significant-commercial-headway-220152.html

We seem to have a hook up - AIS is poor but judging by the position of NA and Cygnus - both up to date AIS - we have a hook up - but cannot be 100% sure.

I think if we say hook up at 16.30 BST that will cover for any error.

Moody's said in their November 2018 update -

"The ratings could be upgraded should EnQuest further strengthen its reserve base in order to underpin average production above 70 kboepd while maintaining a 2P reserve life of at least ten years and avoiding that adjusted total debt to EBITDA rise above 3.0x under a range of oil price scenarios"

Enquest said in the last update - "Group production averaged 69,973 Boepd in the four months to end April 2019" - although they left full year guidance unchanged at 63,000-70,000 Boepd.

So I guess there is a very good chance that production has risen above 70,000 Boepd - this could trigger not just a Moody's rerate but a rerate of the SP and more positive broker reviews - onwards and upwards !!!

NA is just 0.4 nautical miles from AK and closing in for a hook up within the hour.

Hello Caspinos - I certainly agree that most of the shorts are here for the bonds - this has been the case for some time now.

But, I also think that since May we have had a few like LMR who are simply here to exploit the volatility. They had a golden opportunity to push the SP down below 15p and blow out a lot of stop losses around this mark. I think that was what this past week was all about.

But, as you say it has absolutely nothing to do with the success or failure of SM - to my mind the market cap of £942.19m substantially undervalues SM at the moment.

The problem is John, that it is not the percentage of shorts but the fact that some of them are aggressively trading - even the ones below 0.5% - until they cash out we will see volatility - the bond issue needs to be sorted!

Look at how times LMR have changed their position over the last month or so -

https://shorttracker.co.uk/manager/lmr-partners-llp/

I think that he is underestimated demand for Poly4 for one simple reason.

Poly4 is an end user product - it is not raw polyhalite going to fertiliser manufacturers for use in their products.

Demand will, therefore, be directly from the farmer and with likes of ADM selling and marketing the product we can, I think, expect strong demand beyond the supply agreement quotas.

As I said in my previous post SM could take their seed coating patent to market in collaboration with one of the corporate giants of agriculture - such as Syngenta.

https://www.syngentaventures.com/

From the link -

"In trials using coated and uncoated crop seeds of rice, wheat and pea, polyhalite coatings were found to significantly increase the average plant height within the first 11-15 days".

This has a very important practical significance - farmers often have trouble getting crops established in less than ideal conditions - anything that can help that process and give young seedlings a flying start is likely to be very widely adopted.

This really is #beyondwoodsmith Scotman - I see a major collaboration with someone like Syngenta.

NA is just 126 nautical miles from Kraken and on track to arrive as scheduled late tomorrow morning so hook up could be in the afternoon.

The weather is just about as calm as it gets in the North Sea.

It has been the trend over the last few years that I have invested here that the market seems to take little interest in the technological developments - news on commercialisation will I think be the only thing that gives the SP a big push upwards.

When last weeks fall is analysed we can I think see that the trigger was the shorts but it goes beyond that - obviously the day traders took fright and sold contributing to the fall - but maybe the biggest factor was the stop losses.

The trouble is that stop losses are not private - the shorts know where they are placed - so they can base their attack around them.

As private investors we need to be a bit more savvy, we won't stop the volatility but we can at least limit it by taking more care how we use stop losses.

This news underlines the poor condition of US oil refineries.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-refinery-blast/massive-philadelphia-refinery-fire-threatens-facilitys-future-idUKKCN1TM12F?il=0

Hello YOY
Well spotted - yes from memory that sounds about right - although we may have missed a few loads because the AIS is generally poor around Alma/Galia.

The main difference this year is that the shuttle tankers have been taking full loads from the field - instead of a part load and then continuing to other fields - however SS is a much larger tanker than normal for Alma, so this could be interesting.

Sunday June 23rd will be 11 days.

So its Navion Anglia - ETA late morning on Sunday - lets hope we see an afternoon hook up.

Thank you MO - that's interesting - I guess we have a candidate, or two, for load 40.

Thank you Christchurch - the volume is well up over the last couple of days so maybe this is the start of some positive movement.

Yep, the volatility is on the up side now - one more perceived transgression by Iran - real or not - will send Trump into reckless mode - more than likely it will be regarding Iran's uranium enrichment program.

I cannot see any evidence that Woodford has reduced his stake in ITX - can anyone contradict this???