Member Info for chilting

e121
Don't forget that 80% of the US economy is its service industry - this is totally unaffected by tariffs.
The main problem Trump faces is agriculture but he can pay off the farmers with subsidies funded by the income he gets from tariffs.
As to hedge funds - I have a real conviction that he feeds info to Robert Mercer and dances to his nationlist tune - Mercer did fund Trump's election - Mueller was investigating the wrong donor.

Reuters are reporting that the Chinese might break US sanctions and start importing Iranian oil.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/brent-oil-in-bear-market-as-china-u-s-trade-tensions-mount-idUKKCN1UW04M

As to a mass sell off - not sure that will happen because apart from the last few days the SP has never been this low - I cannot see many investors selling at a loss when the actual prospects for ITX are so good.

Most of us I think will either take the opportunity to top up or watch from the side lines in bemusement as the professionals make a **** up of things.

So we assume that the Jupiter holding that they sold came from Woodford on July 9th - although that was never confirmed.

That means that Woodford still has around 20% unless the shares that the directors purchased came from him then he probably has closer to 13%.

Scott Spirit is due at Kraken early on Thursday afternoon - that's just 11 days after the last hook up - so there is some good news to be found.

Also this may help - US EIA 2019 Oil output forecast cut to 12.27m barrels per day from 12.36m - going in the right direction.

Dol03
Officially - economic uncertainty in the worlds financial markets.
Also the market price of 13.5% was higher than the 10-12% they wanted to offer.
In looks like they will try again in September - the deadline for funding is end of September.

SXX will leap up when they get the bonds away - it releases the rest of their funding - SP could double?

The best - but risky -investment at the moment is ITX - Woodford has just sold out [still unconfirmed] - big potential here for at least a 10 fold rise in the next 18 months if they can avoid dilution.

The agreement with JPM is that the bonds need to be issued to release the rest of the funding.

Maybe this will be ammended and part of the funding could be released this autumn with the bond issue following in Q4 or even in H1 2020.

This would certainly make sense - assuming JPM can take the extra risk - if economic conditions don't improve in Q3.

Investors need to understand that this is tactical - a result of outside events - rather than SM in its death throws as some seem to indicate - to sell out now would be exceptionally stupid.

I am still very confident that SM will get the bonds away in the end - its just a question of when - the omens are not good for the world economy at the moment - this looks like it will run to the wire - not good for our nerves.

Today was very predictable in terms of the fall of the SP but it was mainly sentiment - the trouble is that nobody - not even his advisors - know what's on Trump's mind - we basically have a deranged nationalist, who reckons that he is a modern day Zeus, running the world economy.

What next - who knows - that is the problem!!!

Yes and the irony is that if Johnson doesn't get Brexit right it will be our farmers who feel the most pain and that won't go down well in the shires.

I was looking at the two big sells - late reported tonight -

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareTrades.asp?shareprice=ITX&share=Itaconix-Plc

Nothing confirmed but it looks like Woodford is out - he started with around 33% - I think
July 9th - 13.74% to Jupiter
August 2nd - 20% to the Directors and another purchaser.

Does anyone agree???

The Director deals might be just a coincidence today - last year on the 3rd August, just after the open offer, the new directors brought shares - so it might just be a yearly top up at a fixed discount to the SP?

I think that for the first time we are starting to see the positive impact of the bond issue on the SP - with most of the market down again - thanks Trump - SM is one of the few blues.

OK, here's the reason for the bad vibes around today - the Chinese have responded to Trump's tariff war escalation by allowing their currency to devalue - in other words they have abandoned hopes of doing a trade deal with the US - not good!!!

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-markets/china-lets-yuan-slump-past-7-per-dollar-for-first-time-in-over-decade-as-trade-war-escalates-idUKKCN1UV06A?il=0

These very solid financial projections for the SP in 5 years could be wildly inaccurate - simply because they don't factor in sentiment - we have seen the peaks over the as sentiment grows - but when production starts and the profits and dividends start rolling in we can I think expect a very substantial lift in sentiment and that will have a massive impact on the SP.

Its looking like Brent will be stuck around this level for the foreseeable future - stuck between $59 and $62 - unless we get action in the Gulf. All the variables have contributed to basically "freezing" Brent in this band.

Trump seems to be setting his sights on the EU now for further tariffs - particularly the motor industry. That could push Brent back towards this years lows is it got out of hand.

Meanwhile Enquest can continue to slowly pay off its debts, even at this level, and the hedging done around $70 will help.

I am not sure what went on today - Woodford selling maybe - but I cannot see any negatives from ITX and we should bounce back quickly - anyway I added.

If it was Woodford, I guess we could see a short period of uncertainty with a low SP as he offloads.