Member Info for chilting

romaron
Hold and hope at the moment - its when they loose hope that the fun and games start.

Looking at BP's results yesterday I found no mention of shale.

15.5 hours and counting.

Taking into account the falling volume and the broadly static percentage of shorts - I think that we can draw some conclusions especially with the SP settled around the 3p mark.

I think that the shorts - we call them shorts but they balance out their short position with a long position as well - have now more or less balanced their positions and just like us are waiting for the next RNS.

In other words they are in the optimum position to make money whatever way the SP goes when we get the next RNS.

I missed the hook up time but looking back at various posts and although the AIS is bad, it looks like a time of 17.30GMT would be about right.

I think that they are all below average - they have made their profits and will just slowly close.

But in the meantime they are taking advantage of the volatility so that's why they are still here.

The problem will be if we get bad news then they could jump dramatically - but lets not think about that.

Maybe of interest -
Highbridge have been shorting SM since 9th December 2016 and have held well over 2% at times. They are now reducing and have been since 29th May 2019 when they were 2.70% - after continued reduction they are now down to 1.42% but that still gives them the highest percentage of the 5 shorts listed.

Lowest volume today since July 23rd with shorting activity minimal - although they do seem to be still around.

Maybe some are out and have not reported yet or maybe they have their own agenda - who knows.

One reduction and one increase - that balance - reported today from last Friday - now 5.19%

AS is just 1.1 nautical mile to the south of AK now and looks to be on the final stages of a hook up from the south - hook up in around an hour.

The weather is very calm until the week end.

Lets hope that Johnson plays the Northern Powerhouse card then - my guess then is that he needs to.

xxdoderxx
This isn't about handouts - its Government Guarantees that give lenders "insurance" when they lend to SM.

Just how big an issue is the Northern Powerhouse?

Living down in Sussex I cannot answer that one.

The important thing to realise is that most of the companies that ITX are dealing with take a very long time with product development.

ITX have already found this out the hard way in 2018 when they ran out of cash but since then they have cut costs by closing their UK factory and making other general cutbacks so hopefully this time the sales will come before the cash position becomes a problem.

The ITX portfolio is a new to the industry - Disruptive innovation at its best!!!

Fred
I think that the decision for the Government Guarantee is more of a political one now - it did more or less pass the Bureaucratic hurdle - someone correct me if I am wrong - so we could see the politicians promising SM the guarantees as part of their election strategy tied in with the Northern Powerhouse.

Does anyone know if Labour have made any comments?

Labour have now backed plans for a General Election - looks like 11th or 12th December.

Hopefully that will give some clarity on the Government Guarantees issue.

Yes that's probably correct then - BP were one of the original producers - presumably the tank dated from this era - this is from Wikipedia -
"Production commenced for partners BNOC, Britoil and BP on the site in 1978. Ownership of the operations licence for the site was subsequently transferred to DNO in 2003, followed by Lundin in 2004 before the demerging of Lundin's UK assets in 2010, when EnQuest became the operator. The site is currently operated in partnership between EnQuest and BP, with EnQuest holding over 99% of the total ownership of the site."

So Lundin will be liable for most of the cost to sort out the tank - maybe it would have been a good idea if the tank had been removed when it was no longer needed - MO said it predated the pipeline and was used to store crude for shuttle tankers to pick up.

Wow - AS hasn't just left Scapa Flo for a quick hook up with AK but she is heading towards Kraken at 13 knots - so I guess we could get a hook up as early as this afternoon - that would be just 10 days - load 48 left on the 19th October.

Yes and low volume as well - with a modest increase in the SP away from 3p - certainly not much shorting activity today - although there are about 3 or 4 times during the day that their activity shows up - maybe some have closed and not reported?

Double blow for Cairn this morning - Indian arbitration award pushed back again, this time to summer 2020 sometime - and a dry well in Mexico.

I guess the shares that Woodford sold are still widely dispersed - hence no holding RNS.
ITX has gone from one extreme to the other with the bulk of shares now in less sticky hands.
Maybe that explains why the SP seems stuck in the doldrums.