Member Info for chilting

HK is just 9.8 nautical miles to the north of AK at the moment and still travelling at 10 knots - she has to approach for a hook-up from the north east, so there are good signs that this is set to happen latter this morning.

The weather is OK, but there is a storm forecast overnight that could cause a problem, however if they go for a hook-up we can assume that this is not a concern - HK is a very large modern tanker one of the best in the fleet.

I am just waiting for Trump and Pence to fall out over the Coronavirus - the US seems woefully ill prepared and the people are bound to blame the White House - Trump will off course try and make Pence the fall guy and hopefully make the mistake of taking control himself.

It would actually be worth enduring the Coronavirus just to get rid of Trump - that would certainly boost the oil price at the end of the year.

It looks like Christmas all over again for Ocado - delivery wait times have extended, about 4 days in our area - most goods are still showing as in stock - even Paracetamol but hand cleaners have a restricted range.

I guess its much easier for Ocado to fulfil orders when they are taking orders four days in advance because it gives them time to get the stock from suppliers - that gives them an big advantage over Supermarkets with their empty shelves.

The market has certainly overshot but we won't see buyers until they can see the bottom - the black swan has to be shot down first.
The only option at the moment is to sell stocks that will take longer to recover and buy quick recovery stocks - Enquest should be a quick recovery stock because Brent will quickly respond to good news.

To be clear it is reported that - Russia have agreed to extend the cuts agreed at the end of last year beyond the end of March.

They have not agreed to add the extra cuts agreed by OPEC yesterday.

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ebayimg.com%2Fimages%2Fg%2FLMwAAOSwStheLQL~%2Fs-l300.jpg&imgrefurl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ebay.com%2Fitm%2F1988-Dam-Norfin-7-Troll-Denmark-New-Black-Hair-Outfit-Black-Swan-OOAK-%2F333516129470&tbnid=3U9EKLNjHjU1MM&vet=12ahUKEwi3je6mzYXoAhXK0oUKHTJzA48QMygKegUIARCFAg..i&docid=inuQt8NdCw3TnM&w=233&h=300&itg=1&q=the%20troll%20and%20the%20black%20swan&ved=2ahUKEwi3je6mzYXoAhXK0oUKHTJzA48QMygKegUIARCFAg

http://uk.stoxline.com/q_uk.php?s=ENQ

romaron - no problem with Enquest - the bulk of the capital has been spent and the rewards are set to flood in - but with Brent low we simply don't get the full benefit and I guess it reduces AB's capacity to find new reserves so eventually output will fall back and the company will contract.
In other words - short term is mediocre because of Brent - medium term looks great [it always seems to with Enquest] - long term is a big question mark.
I think that in the long term Enquest need to look at diversification away from oil - in much the same way as Shell are with Hydrogen.

HK is slowly making her way north - currently just west of Islay - she is due at Kraken first thing on Saturday - 11 days after the last tanker left.

The weather could potentially cause a problem overnight Saturday, so hook-up could be delayed until Sunday - Monday is fine with a breakdown to stormy weather Tuesday night and through Wednesday and beyond.

romaron - the problem with the oil market is that there is always something that is pushing down the price of oil - it can be a black swan event like the coronavirus, Trump sanctions, EIA numbers etc…

To me all of this is simple manipulation - a disconnect from the real world to one dominated by city traders and hedge funds.

Coronavirus may be history in six months time but I fear it will make little difference to the price of oil.

I guess all that we can hope for now is that Brent stays above $50 - but that may be a big ask.

Matthew 21:12

Everywhere I look it is either red or wet - wonderful.

I think I need to self isolate.

A challenging day so far - I don't think PMO's results have helped, we tend to get bundled together - lets hope OPEC+ can save the day.

That's the thing with the Chinese - push them down and they come back stronger.

HK is on her way.

Hook-up on Saturday would be 11 days since the last hook-up.

No weather problems.

Heather Knutsen is just getting ready to leave Milford Haven now bound for Kraken - ETA is 08.00 on Saturday.

Looking at the volume today and assuming that AAL are buying all the stock it could be that AAL have around a 15% holding in SXX from this mornings trading.

No tanker yet but plenty of candidates - including Scott Spirit at Scapa Flo - Heather Knutsen at Pembroke and the two Petro tankers at Cromarty.