Member Info for chilting

There is an obscene irony here that makes my blood boil.

The fall in the SP before the vote was orchestrated by the city traders to take advantage of the uncertainty about the outcome of the vote - one of them even said they would vote against the takeover deal.

So they closed on their shorts before the vote - now they are cashing in their longs.

AAL are buying - traders are selling - expect massive volume today.

The opinion polls are too close to call at the moment.
I think the outcome swings on if the Democrats can get their act together.
Don't forget this isn't a popular vote - its a State by State vote - that makes it much easier for the Democrats - Trumps support is polarised in certain States.
It could all be decided by a few votes in Florida again.

So a Biden administration would probably have the effect of cutting production in the US but would it be enough to make a difference to the world price of oil or would it simply redress the balance between the US and OPEC+?

The Democrats are basically anti-fracking but it is unclear how Biden stands on the issue.

I found "news" reports stating that he backed a ban and others that he opposed it.

It seems that the Republican press is saying that he does want a ban to lower his support in oil producing states but in actual fact he backs the industry.

However, some of the more extreme ideas of the Trump administration - such as drilling in National Parks - are likely to be binned. Also I guess Biden would want more environmental monitoring of the industry.

Yorkshire
Yes, and that's why its so bloody frustrating that we were left to hang out to dry.

By we I mean SM and its shareholders.

Heselitine was a maverick - he saw what Government could achieve if ministers shed the dogma of right and left and worked in the countries interest rather than their parties - he was also a chancer.

RR - no because no one would benefit - apart from you.

The point is knowing when to speculate to accumulate.

SM will provide income for the treasury for 100 years - local jobs in a development area - with the right backing it could also build an industry and help build a freeport.
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All in return for Government Guarantees - if CF did get it wrong it was because he assumed the Government would provide.
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I also got it wrong by assuming the Government would provide.

Yes but when the benefits of a project are so vast risks have to be taken.

The National Park Authority took that risk by granting planning permission - the Government clearly should have followed their example.

The Government wasn't being asked to fund the project but simply to act as a guarantor - SM needed a guarantor simply because it had no source of income - this reason it failed was because it didn't have a guarantor.
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The Government made all the right noises about supporting the project but in the end did nothing - CF clearly believed that they would provide guarantees - right up to January this year - but in the end they left him and SM out to dry.
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My reason for investment here was that I believed in the product - I work in the horticultural industry - and I thought the Government would back it because of the vast benefits it brings to the UK.

The Governments actions are totally illogical.

RuSirius
Construction projects always have ramp ups like that - look at HS2 for example.

The ironical thing is that most of the increase was for the tunnel - improving the spec - and it looks like they will make savings there.

No, I still maintain - all big construction projects around the world need Government backing of some sort - not to get it is very odd - Its a red light for investors if its not forthcoming.

"Could have been the biggest and best and British."

Exactly - I know a lot of investors are blaming the BOD and yes the buck does stop with them - but I still think that the main blame has to be put at the Governments door for not providing the loan guarantees.

I simply think that the lack of Government sanction for the project simply drove investors away - they concluded that if the UK Government didn't back the project then the risk of investment was too high.

Without Government Guarantees - that I think would have been provided by virtually any other Government around the world - SM didn't stand a chance.

Bottom line in that the Governments failure to back the funding deal was terminal.

You could argue that SM could have done more, but with the SP in tatters and capital running out the company was just a sitting duck for takeover.

Yes, that's certainly the case in the UK as well Pelle.

Some stocks that would be badly affected in a virus outbreak are still falling steadily - but others that would only be slightly affected are bouncing back very nicely.

I guess this is a trend that will continue - its hard to see the bottom for airlines and cruise companies for example - in fact some airlines could go bust I think.

A good start but the black swan is still flying around - caution needed I think.

Good vibes from China - the Shanghai index up 3.15%.

Also surprisingly the same index is only down 2.6% on the year.

So how much paranoia can we expect this week or will sanity start to prevail - at least in the financial community.

Hopefully OPEC+ will deliver a oil price recovery or at the very least hold the price of Brent above $50 until the black swan flies away.

I wonder if the rail unions will call for industrial action to protect their members from the virus?

One little tip - Ocado look a good bet - especially if the fear of virus takes a hold - they already have a spike in orders.

The process of switching from natural gas to hydrogen in the gas grid is likely to be a slow one with the percentage of hydrogen gradually being increased.
It would then be a case of mixing natural gas and hydrogen, therefore, the hydrogen would have to be delivered to / manufactured at, the same locations as the gas was fed into the grid.

I guess we will all be wiser if we get another Black Swan event.

"The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight."