Member Info for chilting

Continuing the discussion about new technologies - the future may be closer than we think - also there is no reason why oil companies cannot diversify into hydrogen production and transportation.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/ITM/14426775.html

He struck gold at Greatland along with a fair few other ex SM share holders.

No chance longtermview - someone has to show reality to the stubborn few.

These City types don't take prisoners - they will end up fleecing you to the last penny.

Even today they seem to be draining the last few drops of profit out of the unwary.

Well I for one am sorry to see IBAB go - he was the only voice of reason on this board - he put me right a few times.

Thank you IBAB.

More likely shorts paving the way to cash out - SP will rise towards 5.5p again when they do?

Petroatlantic is still moored in Scapa Flo waiting for the weather to improve for her STS with North Star.

Looking forward we could experience a blip with Kraken production - the current stormy weather continues right through the ten day forecast period - spare a thought for those aboard AK and her supply/safety vessels.

The presence of the other consortium that CF had lined up - the one that finally pulled out this week - certainly forced AAL to make a takeover bid or walk away. It also meant that AAL had to inflate their offer price to see off any other bids.

I for one am very glad that they did because I was at least able to get some of my investment back.

I think we owe CF a thank you for at least creating the conditions for a rebound of about 40% in the SP otherwise I fear that AAL would have just waited for administration and we would have got nothing.

All these press articles contain one glaring error - they all talk of 85,000 individual private investors.

Doing a simple google search the earliest mention of the phrase "Sirius Minerals 85,000 shareholders" that I found was 16th May 2019 - just before the open offer.

I won't speculate on an actual number of private shareholders now but it must be considerably lower than that now.

https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/shares-news/sirius-minerals--digging-in-deep-pockets-190516

Hopefully this week has been the start of the recovery in oil prices - we have seen a modest gain on the week - as long as there is no more bad news from China we could see a return to $60 Brent by the end of next week.

The volume today - without any new news - was 7,464,385 - almost as much as Wednesday - with news - and way ahead of the normal sort of average at around 400,000.
Very encouraging!!!

The bonds transfer to AAL if they complete the takeover hence the jump in value - AAL have a much better credit rating than SM.
This is the reason that Qatar with such a big bond holding wanted to ensure SM's survival - however when AAL announced their takeover Qatar could achieve the same objective without providing their own capital.

Unfortunately this puts the final chance of an alternative to the AAL offer out of the running - all credit to CF that he persevered to try and find an alternative.
It also brings certainty to the situation for shareholders in knowing that everything possible has been done to find an alternative even at the eleventh hour.
There is no bluffing now its AAL or administration.

No, not a con as investors we have to do our own research into the financial viability of any investment - look past the gloss.

Longtermview
Yes, their is an irony there - CF created an all singing and dancing PR machine to promote the company, push for TORPS, perfect its local image and above all create an upbeat environment for the full speed construction of the mine.
As investors we also got sucked in - hence the inevitable bitterness that now prevails having been shut out of the process.

Longtermview
"Having raised $1.2billion stage 1 when this was just a field, it was reasonable to assume that the rest would follow, with 2 years of construction under our belt and 13 meta TORPs, and another 400M equity raise, it was reasonable to expect Fraser, with his financial background, would deliver."

Yes, that is why we invested.

CF had to remain optimistic and explore all avenues - that is part of the job - if he had been downbeat he never would have got anywhere. Part of that job would have been speaking to potential partners such as AAL over a long period. He probably spoke to many others.

As for JPM they were just doing what they always do - what any other Bank would do - make money - shorting is legal in the UK although I for one think it shouldn't be - so nothing they did was illegal.

CF did say, back in the autumn, that a big mining company would make a good partner but unfortunately for us the market cap had dropped by so much in January - yes that was pushed down by the shorts, although it would have been low anyway - that the inevitable conclusion was a takeover or administration.

It seems that Qatar may have been part of a consortium to offer SM a lifeline - mainly to protect their bond investment - but as soon as AAL made their bid they realised that they would achieve the same financial objective by supporting the bid.

So no conspiracy - no wrong doing - simply event driven - the BOD did all they could for shareholders and to their credit they did get a bid that pushed the SP back up to 5.5p - it could have been much worst.

The bottom line is that as investors we totally underestimated the problem that SM would have in raising capital.

Its as simple as that - there is no conspiracy - no wrong doing by the BOD.

Small companies without income always have a problem raising Capital - you could argue that if Government Guarantees had been forthcoming that the outcome would have been different but that's just speculation.

There is absolutely no point contesting the takeover and voting no - you would simply be risking administration and loosing the rest of your investment.

The hook up completed at around 20.30 GMT - 29 hours - Petroatlantic is on her way to Scapa Flo for a STS with the tanker North Sea - her draught is 13.1 indicating a load of around 500k.

The projected revenue from the New Wave deal exceeds all revenue from current sales activity for all customers.

The market cap isn't going to sit at £4 million for much longer.

22 hours and counting

Fira
One good things is that it allows you to rebalance your portfolio and there a some bargains about - I plumped for Ocado - a good long term bet for a steady rise.