Member Info for chilting

I sold on the 8th January casual. I am not sure about AAL though, I don't like their reliance on coal.
The remains of my SM investment went into ITM on the same day - now up over 60%.

The weather is still controlling shuttle tanker movements at the moment - the seas are still too high for hook ups.

Petroatlantic could make a move later today towards Kraken from her Lerwick anchorage - the weather tomorrow is much better but not brilliant.
We may have to wait until Thursday for the actual hook up when a good weather window develops into Friday.

It certainly seems likely that there was insider trading late in the day on the 7th January - other than that this takeover has been a smooth and one sided affair with AAL holding all the cards - it seems likely now that it will just drift towards the inevitable conclusion and that will unfortunately for SM shareholders be the end of the matter.

This drop is way overdone - the Chinese are only just returning from their new year holiday so any economic effects will quickly be wiped out - the bounce back always seems to come when the mood of doom and gloom hits the jumping off the bridge stage - big rise soon!!!

We are just waiting for Petroatlantic to make a move from the Lerwick anchorage - she is due for at STS at Scapa Flo from Kraken.

The weather is still awful but we have a good weather window maybe on Wednesday but more likely Thursday - that would be 11/12 days from when the last load left.

Short term we need some news on the cash situation but long term this is great!!!!

Ian Ashby has a wealth of experience in the mining industry, he was obviously convinced that SM was a viable project, hence his investment.
I guess it was probably him that started AAL's interest in SM.
Also it seems that he is maybe Australian - his profile states that he started his career in Queensland.
At just 61 he could have an active involvement in the development of the SM project.

https://www.angloamerican.com/media/press-releases/2017/23-05-2017

If there is no other option on the table on 3rd March the net result of voting no would be to push SM into administration - the clock would have run down by then.

That would be wipe out for the shareholders and cause financial pain for the companies creditors - maybe some local firms in Yorkshire could even be pushed into bankruptcy.

Then AAL would pick up SM for even more of a bargain - so like it or not voting no would simply inflict more pain without providing any solutions.

No sign of a tanker yet but there are quite a few possibles.

The weather forecast is very poor this week with just one weather window Thursday 13th to Friday 14th - that would be 12 days from when the last load left.

It must be towing the Black Pig.

The net result of voting no and pushing SM into administration would be wipe out for the shareholders and financial pain for the companies creditors - maybe some local firms in Yorkshire could even be pushed into bankruptcy.
Then AAL would pick up SM for even more of a bargain.

The technical and financial aspect of shale only gives us half the picture. Fracking is a contentious process and some US shale producers have a very bad environmental record. So the political pressure on the industry, especially in an election year, is very significant. A Democrat victory could be especially problematic for the industry.

This article is well worth a read -

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/9/12/20857196/democratic-debate-climate-change-fracking-ban

The key thing to remember here is that on the 8th January when AAL first announced that they might make a firm offer there was time for other options to emerge.
Now after the firm offer and a timetable for the vote has been announced time is running out fast - but there may still be time?
If nothing changes between now and 3rd March the clock has been run down - SM's cash reserves are depleted - and the only choice is between the AAL offer and administration - it is simply a fait accompli.

ffc
I am sure Jupiter will vigorously promote a viable alternative is it emerges but if there is nothing else on the table on 3rd March they have no alternative but to vote yes - their first obligation is to protect their fund holders investments.

The odds are firmly stacked against a no vote.
Looking back on the Flybe takeover last year the vote went 87% in favour and they only got 1p per share.
So I guess all these institutional traders get a cash return for a yes vote - although Polygon may have a different agenda?
Jupiter will be obliged to vote yes because they cannot risk administration and total lost for their fund holders.

calamari
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SXX/statement-re-possible-offer-fikrisu884ga3ts.html

The formal offer was made in 20th January and the price was fixed then of 5.5p - todays announcement simply gives the date of the shareholders meeting for the vote and the location 3rd march in London.

The tanks are actually just like tree trunks - tall and thin - try getting something that shape on a vessel without cutting it up!!!

Another step down today is dangerous for HUR and could signal a takeover by one of the big players - but the question is do they want the asset - it has vast potential but the capital required to develop it is high - this has to be a test for the whole North Sea Oil Industry - will new fields be developed or are we witnessing the decline that is bound to come sooner or later as hydrocarbons are phased out?

Yes, its all action now - Deep Discoverer is certainly capable and a safety ship is just arriving.

The tanks must be being removed otherwise they would have no other reason to be at the field - rig has no crew at the moment.

They must be relaxed about the weather - although it looks lively from the weekend onwards.