Member Info for chilting

The point with Ocado is that there isn't a fair value.

As with most growth and tech companies value is determined more by sentiment than true financial worth.

That is why we saw a big spike during Covid.

OCDO is a long term hold for those who are prepared to wait for growth and profitability or a short term punt for the traders.

Maybe deflation as things stand at the moment but if the Chinese market gets going again that will mean energy prices will start to increase again.

I certainly wouldn't bet against a Chinese recovery in 2024 and the US economy would certainly follow.

As for the UK - who knows.

Its certainly going to be a big test.

My feeling is that it will need more good news to hold anything like these levels in the short term.

Also the macro looks like its going backwards again.

I never did believe the takeover rumours.

The level of shorts over the next few months should give some guidance.

It looks like reality is catching up with OCDO with volatility on the downside now.

This was always going to happen on a red day for the market.

A bit of a lift today on thin volume, there seems no logic to movements in the SP with many small AIM stocks.

It does seem though that we can expect some upward movement now back towards 5p but the problem seems to be that it isn't a rerate and the SP simply fall back after a few weeks.

No idea how these logarithms work.

This is the great attraction of the French market for EQTEC.

Local and national funding will be far more forthcoming from the French authorities for green tech solutions than in the UK and elsewhere.

The French match words with action, unlike our vote catching back trackers from the Westminster bear pit.

Its great to get outside validation for the tech.

It justifies investment here even after dilution.

Hopefully it will lift the sentiment.

Above all, I think we could see orders with proper state finance from France - this could end up being EQTEC's best prospect by far - a final breakthrough just supplying the tech for funded projects over a much smaller timescale.

The extreme volatility this week can partly be explained by the shorts cashing out and opening new positions.

The end result is that there are now just thee headline shorts on a combined 2.99%

https://shorteurope.com/history_company.php?selskapsnavn=OCADO%20GROUP%20PLC&land=united_kingdom

Its obviously a complex deal involving Ceres and two multinational corporations, so its the time they take to put the deal together that is the issue here.

All sides, according to Ceres are still fully committed to the deal - as of the trading update a few days ago.

After they agree terms it will be the turn of the regulators to scrutinise the deal, hence Ceres now saying that they expect the deal to complete in 2024.

Graking

Ocado's new solutions tech will make a big difference to future expansion.

The tech is a lot cheaper now and can be physically be fitted into existing buildings.

The hardware can even be produced using 3D printers.

So, its likely that future CFC's will be smaller but more numerous to cover a market area - hence the roll out will be quicker and capital return will be also be quicker with income funding future expansion.

Do you think that Ocado Solutions is actually actively looking for new partners at the moment Valueplay?

It would seem better to concentrate on bringing the current pipeline online before looking for new business.

Unless they are approached by potential partners, when Ocado would have an upper-hand negotiating terms.

Maybe this is why Luke Jenson stood down now?

One thing that we have learnt is that even vague rumours of a takeover sends the SP into overdrive.

Although I think as before, when the Korea deal was announced, this has been mainly at the expense of the shorts.

It is there presence that has created the extreme volatility.

It will be interesting to see where the SP goes after they finally rid themselves of their disastrous positions.

Good luck to Luke Jenson on his retirement.

Boyobach

I think we may have to continue to wait until the shorts reduce or at least close their current positions before we get a clear idea of where the SP is heading next.

They still stand at 3.75% and all four are heavily in the red on these short positions - presumably these positions are hedged with a long position to further complicate matters.

Collectively standing at -6,770.90 M

The SP is still coming off its 3 year low on the 4th July so I think the move up will continue throughout the rest of the year,

especially as CWR is set to join the FTSE250 officially in September.

Meanwhile the climate change debate seems to have hit a brick wall, even our political leaders sense its a vote looser to support climate issues positively. This has I think badly affected sentiment in Ceres and other companies working on renewables.

Hopefully this will change, it certainly need to, we have seen a very active demonstration on what climate change is all about in Southern Europe this summer.

Give the guy a chance - local knowledge and trust is everything in Irish business - many a deal has been sealed over a pint of Guinness.

Long term holders will be well aware that Ceres is a very prudently run company with limited capital outlay.

So another small delay with the JV will make little difference in the long term, even if it did cause the traders to spill their coffee this morning.

It looks like Domi Ost is a one man entrepreneurial band.

Kieran Gaughan will find the opportunities and finance with EQTEC providing the tech.

Good progress on all fronts with plenty of opportunities in the pipeline.

No date for JV but Bosch and Weichai both reaffirm their commitment.

So, still a waiting game but certainly worth waiting.

Amazon are closing three Amazon Fresh stores out of sixteen in the London area.

Although they say that they will be opening new stores later in the year.

My guess that is that won't happen and the whole chain will disappear within about 18 months.