Member Info for chilting

Another few hours yet - mid-late morning.

Game changer is the increase in volume - 1,216,452 already.

Brent is showing modest gains in early trading for the new year.

Bressay also has to be considered in a debt restructuring - the sale of the 41% stake from Equinor will soon be completed - this will I think help AB renegotiate with the Banks because of its value to Enquest in the future - the asset is basically an extension to the Kraken field - there is even gas that can be used to power AK.
Also on a point of interest Equinor will retain a 41% share and the the other 18% is owned by Chrysaor.

L3
Yes, thank you - it would seem that the last Cairn load was back in the Spring - from memory - when the shuttle tanker went to a Danish port.

Hook-up approx 09.00GMT.

SN is just closing in for a hook-up within the next hour - 11 days since the last tanker left.

Exactly, but if you make the mistake and hedge low and Brent takes off, then the SP certainly won't follow Brent.

GKB is a realist - a voice of reason who should be listened to - mind you, he's not always right - any more than I am for that matter.
Yes, I would agree if the traders do descend on ENQ - after dusting their wounds at PMO and HUR - then we could get a spike.

Its clear that looking back in hindsight AB didn't get the hedging right in 2020 - it seems everyone agrees on that point.

For 2021 there are suggestions that as protection maybe 50% of production should be hedged in the $52-$55 range, thinking about this it would seem to be prudent. BUT if AB did follow this route it would do nothing for the SP - we would probably still be stuck in the teens in 12 months - simply because it would peg back revenue if Brent did take off.

The point is that Enquest needs Brent to go higher to pay back debt and make the sort of profits that will push the SP to 30p and beyond. Hedging low simply won't make that achievable.

Looking back to January-February 2020 when Brent was $55-$60, I guess that AB was thinking Brent would go higher - a reasonable assumption - so hedging low would have been as unattractive then as it is now.

No hook-up yet - SN is currently 29.5 nautical miles to the north east of AK - AIS is poor - weather is very calm.

I am not talking about just reducing debt but clearing in to make profit - simply standing still in 2020, in a year when revenue and profit should have been flooding in from Kraken is a big disappointment.

Ammu
The point is that peak production hasn't coincided with high oil prices, therefore, profit on the investment cannot be optimised .

I think that its true to say that Enquest's survival in 2020 was principally down to the fact that Kraken was producing at optimum levels.

However, its rather disappointing that peak production hasn't resulted in peak profits and the company has been able to do little more than pay the debts from developing Kraken.
So it has to be said that although Kraken has been a technical success, from a financial point of view it still hasn't fired up Enquest's profits.

Without the pandemic 2020 would have been a fantastic year for Enquest - the SP hit nearly 30p last January and would I think have continued to rise - lets hope the anticipated rise in Brent isn't to late to bring bumper profits in 2021.

AB needs to reflect on the lessons of 2020 and should I think consider a merger with another oil company to add financial resilience and extra revenue streams.

- in line with expectations for 2020.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/oil-russia-output/russian-annual-oil-output-falls-for-the-first-time-since-2008-on-opec-deal-pandemic-idUKKBN29704E?il=0

SN is currently 17.6 nautical miles to the east of AK - a hook up tomorrow would be 10 days since the last tanker left - the weather is very calm for the time of year.

The point to remember is that its not just about Ceres. Tech share prices move around in a bigger market, in fact to a certain extent CWR follows the NASDAQ more than the UK markets.
2020 was a great year for tech shares but as we enter 2021 and the country returns to normality it is likely that other sectors will get more attention and tech shares will give more modest growth.

Brought in here today for the long haul back to full recovery, on the basis that WTB can turn a negative to a positive with some cheap acquisitions both in the UK and Germany and also that business should be good next year with the rebound and less hotel accommodation available in the market.
Also the rights issue back in the summer gives the company the opportunity to fully capitalise on the situation it finds itself in.

Stena Natalia is now making her way slowly towards Kraken with an ETA of 18.00 on new years day - a hook up on Saturday 2nd would be 10 days since the last tanker left - the weather is OK.

gkb
Lets just hope that they are right and that one dose is enough to give a good degree of protection - its obviously better to get more people on the road to protection.
Personally, though I would give the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine as scheduled to the over 80's and care home residents - this group are the most vulnerable and the biggest drag on the NHS if they do become infected.