Member Info for chilting

One thing to point out regarding Delta.

They do operate on mainland China - they have 6 manufacturing sites around the country.

This deal was probably done in collaboration with Weichai and Bosch.

Excellent news this morning.

Should be all cleared with Weichai.

Weichai have a senior Director on the Ceres Board.

I think any company that hasn't reached its full potential is difficult to value, not just Ocado.

In these instances the valuation is governed largely by sentiment.

During Covid the valuation of Ocado shot up as sentiment soared, even though the company was even further than it is today from delivering profit and wasn't capitalising on its market position.

Today we see the macro come back to bite and sentiment is shot again, hence the fall.

So to sum up - the volatile market is just valuing Ocado short term on sentiment, hence the volatility.

Yes, excellent, as expected, a big pull up by M&S for Ocado Retail with M&S customers now switching to Ocado Retail when they cannot get to store, as an alternative, or when travelling distance is too far.

The value of the partnership is now shining through with increased sales and higher margins because of economies of scale.

All good - entirely as expected.

I think we could see a big spike up tomorrow with Christmas sales good and a potential return to profitability for Ocado Retail.

Volume has been low so far this year with few buyers, that could all change big time tomorrow.

A short term gain that hopefully also reverses fortunes by improving sentiment.

The difference now is that even if customers don't want to buy clothes with an M&S tag, they have plenty of alternative options in store and online with the third part brands - this is the game changer.

Its fairly obvious that the RBC downgrade triggered the fall - 6% came off in the first few minutes of trading.

Also the reason for the downgrade with the SP basically just drifting tells its own story.

But, nothing has actually changed, we are still just waiting, as are Ceres, for two big corporations to make decisions - these things take time, add to that its new tech without a clearly defined market and a factory has to be built in China with its fragile economy - it all takes time - be patient.

I think we can be confidant that the Christmas trading figures for Ocado Retail will be very good and that Ocado Retail will be back in profit again, or close to, when we get the trading update on Tuesday.

This will hopefully give the impetus for the SP to finally turn positive.

It seems, as usual, that excessive press coverage built up excessive expectations for investors.

Add to that the profit takers, and its hardly surprising the SP has fallen back.

I guess in a week or two it will be back to around the 270-280p mark.

We do still have the Ocado Retail numbers to come on Tuesday - don't forget many M&S customers, like jimjams neighbours around Henley, would have used Ocado for convenience over Christmas.

Hello jimjam

I guess your experiences with Waitrose in Henley sums up the sort of mess that Waitrose is in.

It certainly begs the question - if they cannot get it right in Henley, where can they get it right.

I am quite sure that M&S would jump at the chance if they could get the site, especially as it comes with parking.

I agree with jimjam that it would be good to get hold of Waitrose sites like Henley, but I guess they won't want to sell their crown jewels only the rags.

Its probably better to go out of town with abundant free parking, as M&S have been doing, in the profitable locations like Henley, if sites are available.

Henley also has a big Tesco, it would be interesting to know if customers are drifting from Waitrose to Tesco to sample their Taste the Difference range in such an up market area.

Ocado Retail is the key for M&S to increase market share in food, simply because it enables them to increase the range.

Having the duel market place enables increase in volume orders from suppliers that gives more attractive margins created by economies of scale.

Customers will soon be able to do all their food shopping for the week at M&S.

We should also see Ocado Retail recording a small profit next Tuesday.

Another excellent set of results - clearly the business is extremely well run and going from strength to strength in the UK and Germany - good to see that Germany is likely to break even this trading year.

Clearly an excellent Christmas trading period for M&S, even if some of the higher expectations wen't met.

This is only part one though, we still await the Ocado Retail results - due on Tuesday 16th Jan.

Its interesting to note how normally sane investors and traders turn into sheep on results day.

The thing is Neil - I don't think the discounters have a possible plan B - its all about price.

Its difficult to see how they can innovate.

I think that Tesco's, Sainsburys and Asda have them in their sights - they just need to go in for the kill.

It should be exiting to watch!

Neil

I think the German retailers have backed themselves into a corner that has now developed into a situation outside their control.

Customers are quickly realising that they can buy products for about the same price at other supermarkets and they can also get a better range from other supermarkets.

The other supermarkets are sacrificing margins on basic products from the discounters range and getting better margins on more up market products and branded goods - hence they remain profitable.

As the economy improves I think this trend will become more obvious and the discounters will start to loose market share and will remain loss making with debts of £3 billion becoming problematic for Lidl.

I think the SP got ahead of itself when the market was performing well, now that the market is more subdued the fizz has been knocked back.

The numbers have now been so widely trailed that they are more or less included in the SP.

Any movement tomorrow will probably reflect general market sentiment.

Then the SP will continue to rise ahead of the market throughout 2024, if the macro allows.

New figures from research group NIQ for the 12 weeks till the end of December have food sales at M&S up 12.1% behind Lidl on 15.3%.

***** Then followed by Aldi on 11.4% and OCADO, very encouragingly on 10.8%

The rest follow in single figures with Waitrose on just 3.6% - clearly loosing out to M&S and Ocado.

It looks a modest return to profitability for Ocado Retail could be recorded in the update this month - this would give the SP a huge boost.

Full story is here.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/food-sales-soar-as-marks-spencer-enjoys-a-bumper-christmas/ar-AA1mItRJ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6c94be77471547f4a4730430663cc0f7&ei=21

New figures from research group NIQ for the 12 weeks till the end of December have food sales at M&S up 12.1% behind Lidl on 15.3%.

Then followed by Aldi on 11.4% and Ocado, very encouragingly on 10.8%

The rest follow in single figures with Waitrose on just 3.6% - clearly loosing out to M&S.

Full story is here.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/food-sales-soar-as-marks-spencer-enjoys-a-bumper-christmas/ar-AA1mItRJ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6c94be77471547f4a4730430663cc0f7&ei=21