Member Info for chilting

Today simply gives confirmation that Ceres is still on track despite the slow advance to new cleaner tech.

More importantly from a shareholders point of view the company is well funded and being managed, as it always has been, to allow for slow adoption of new tech.

So for long term holders, this is business as usual, patience as always is essential with growth shares.

SP Clearly benefiting from Tesco results and comments this morning.

I think the new man at JLP will have to do some something radical to turn things around.

One option could be to sell Waitrose - M&S would be an obvious buyer - think of all those wonderfully located Waitrose stores in M&S heartlands.

It looks like the completion is getting its act together with the appointment of highly regarded ex Tesco man Jason Tarry as their new chairman.

I see he starts in September - not a moment to soon for them.

Yesterdays RNS was required because the loss of the contract to supply adversely affected the company and the SP.

But, nobody can actually say if yesterdays news was a positive or negative - it all depends what happens now.

If 2024 turns out to be a step backwards - lower revenue and gross profit - then its clearly a negative.

But, if new more lucrative supply contracts are signed in the short term Itaconix will have massive spare capacity to fulfil these new contracts - this its clearly a positive.

This could even be a planned move by John for diversification away from reliance on low margin dishwasher products.

My take here is that John wouldn't have let this contract go if he didn't have a better revenue stream advanced in the pipeline for 2024.

Look out for more positive updates in the coming months

So basically at step back in revenue but an improvement in gross margins for 2024.

R&D and sales now have a great opportunity to fill the excess capacity with new supply contracts.

I guess its one of the dishwasher supply contracts that failed to renegotiate.

I think the volatility on low volume is simply because there is low availability of shares to trade - the algorithms are always set to increase trading and this will be more likely to happen if there are larger fluctuations in the SP - hence even small trades make a difference.

Regarding a takeover - with so many shares in sticky hands and large Director holdings, any potential bidder would almost certainly need the Directors to agree terms before the shareholders were consulted. They would have to pay top price.

The real winner with Ocado Retail is M&S.

Selling their own branded products via Ocado Retail brings them extra profit and the benefits of volume, discounts from their suppliers.

This bodes well for the future of Ocado Retail and when M&S purchase the other 50%, as seems likely, Ocado can expect healthy commission income from the business.

Yes, all good here today - the only negative is the SP and that needs a change of perception from investors - simply put more buyers - the volume is here but its just churn and shorting.

Hopefully today will build impetus, shed the shorts and build a rally.

Sentiment is the key - Ocado Retail customers have changed their sentiment regarding high prices - now investors need to start being positive.

Rogadar

Never underestimate the effect sentiment has on fixing share prices, especially growth shares.

Sentiment defies logic/facts/reality, on both the downside and the upside.

It will always come back to bite you on the bum! - I have learnt this the hard way over the years.

When sentiment is high, top slice and bank some of your profit - it helps it situations like this.

Regarding the delay publishing the results - its simply that the auditor requires more time to complete the audit.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CWR/updated-timing-of-full-year-results-b6j3qoeepficx4g.html

This could certainly be the bottom, but its up to new investors to make that call - good luck.

One thing that I can very confidently predict is that as soon as the closed period ends, that is when the results are published, we will see a rush of Director buys.

The shorts by that time will be rushing to exit, having taken their profits.

Actually from the companies point of view and its directors, the best outcome here would probably be a takeover by a big pharmaceutical company leaving the business to run as a stand alone subsidiary.

This would give Daniel and David access to all their capital requirements and open supply deal doors.

It would probably also be a good pay day for investors, especially if several suiters emerged.

Exactly - hence the big fall and happy shorts.

Noggers

Potential investors are simply waiting for positive news from the company or macro and shorts are making hay.

Unplugged

I was was referring to 2-4 years ago - if you take such a short term view investing in growth shares, you are bound to be disappointed - its a long tedious trial of patience.

The inevitable fall back after a big rise - the next step is the interesting one - hopefully a slow recovery towards 260p - then we know the SP is making progress.

Its simply a case of being patient, when enough investors see a good opportunity to invest here the SP will respond positively.

Todays news certainly helped that cause - the SP could take off at any time, probably when its least expected.