Member Info for chilting

Days like this illustrate the logic of top slicing when things are going well.

Growth shares pricing is always unpredictable and often defies logic, with sentiment playing such a big part in fixing the SP.

On first glance the SP has already responded to the excellent company performance - up from 51p on January 19th.

But what we are seeing is simply recovery after last years share consolidation, therefore, the SP should have much further to go in 2024.

Volume has been better since January, but needs to increase substantially for the SP too really take off as it should.

What we need to see is new investors building substantial long term stakes in the company - this will be the game changer.

all credit to daniel lee, david ****e and the team - great set of results and very impressive continuity rewarded by the positive ebitda.

Its interesting to note that it is nearly two years since Ocado's SP dropped below 1000p and it has remained there ever since.

Looking at the 5 year historical chart we see that by far the highest volume for OCDO has been in this same period and that certainly confirms the volatility created by shorting and day trading of the stock.

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.html?sharechart=OCDO&share=Ocado

So, with Ocado's fortunes improving, how will the next two years pan out.

Personally, I think we will see a recovery, not dramatic, but the shorts will start to loose interest and the day traders will look elsewhere for volatile stocks - it could all become rather boring.

M&S has already gained considerably from the partnership Boyobach, even though Ocado Retail has made losses recently.

What isn't clear from the figures is that they make profit on M&S branded products sold on Ocado, benefit from economies of scale and supplier quantity discounts on their branded products and pushed Waitrose out when they took the partnership - Waitrose haven't recovered from the loss.

I honestly don't think that M&S Foods would be where they are today without Ocado.

The wide fluctuations are normal here Neil.

The SP always takes fright when big economic news is pending - US inflations numbers tomorrow.

For the record - Wiechai have invested heavily in Ceres and own nearly 20% of the company, along with Bosch they have created the opportunities that Ceres now have internationally.

They have also removed the need for Ceres to rely to much on their shareholders for funding over the years.

Sorry, I did mislead you Boyobach.

My point was that the media and others were spreading misinformation to build up the story and maybe manipulate the SP.

This actually seems to have happened, however the effect will probably only be short term.

Boyobach

Its not quite as simple as that.

There is another cost for M&S that will probably be the most negotiated, and it will remain confidential.

This is - the ongoing percentage commission that Ocado will charge M&S for sales on the Ocado platform.

The fight for market share always dominates the grocery sector and is the biggest control on margins.

Its important to see where the main action is, and at the moment its certainly with basic products - even more so than usual.

The fight between the discounters and the big four now seems to be turning a corner with the big four likely to come out on top as the one trick pony discounters likely go into reverse market share.

Meanwhile with Waitrose in a tail spin and the big four hunting for all the margin they can get on non basic products these are good times for M&S with their bias towards the top end on the market.

It could be that US investors buy in the UK?

Yes, ITX is a bright shining star in an otherwise dismal market spindok.

Poor old Endquest has taken a bit of a tax hammering from the politicians, and just at a time when they were starting to show good potential..

ITX also traded on US market.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/itxxf

All the Westminster parties now seem to have the same strategy to curb further carbon fuel development in the North Sea and push the oil companies towards decommissioning with the option of carbon capture and other renewable tech investment.

With the ever extending profits levy, currently to 2029, it seems extremely unlikely that profit will be attainable from new oil fields.

Existing operators North Sea are sitting on tax credits that give them the option of green investment for minimal capital outlay, it will be interesting to see if they have the savvy to use them or if they continue fruitless argument against the profits levy.

Capital investment for renewables needs to come from all sources - Ceres will benefit - even if the profits originally came from carbon fuel.

The big oil companies have a vital role to play in rolling out renewables.

It will be down to their judgement what becomes commercial because it will be their capital investment.

Therefore, its vital that they do asses all options.

The main thing, for now, is that Ceres tech is one of these options.

One of the main features of the Ocado business model is that they have an ongoing relationship with all their solutions partners with revenue continuing to flow.

This means that they have an incentive to continue to innovate and improve their offering not just for new customers but for their existing customers as well.

I totally agree with cureboy.

The whole market seems to be ridden with manipulation with every rumour, minor financial misfortune and event having a greatly exaggerated effect on a companies SP.

I have absolutely no faith in the press and question the truth in every story they produce.

The trading update from Ocado Retail on the 26th March should make good reading.

Hello Neil

Its probably not just the value of the other 50% and remaining payment due that is under discussion but also Ocado Groups ongoing fees when Ocado Retail is 100% owned by M&S.

News today that Ocado Retails sales rose by 12.2% for the last 12 weeks compared to a year ago - the highest increase of any UK supermarket, including the discounters.

In second place was M&S on 11.9%

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/03/05/marks-spencer-outpaces-aldi-and-lidl-supermarket-sales/

Thank you b@xter

This is from the Telegraph report -

"Marks & Spencer’s grocery sales are growing faster than Aldi and Lidl as a turnaround led by chief Stuart Machin gains traction.

Industry figures reveal that M&S was the fastest growing traditional grocer over the last 12 weeks, with the total take at its tills rising by 11.9pc compared to a year earlier.

That compared to growth of 6pc at Aldi and 10.4pc at Lidl, according to market research company NIQ.

Only Ocado’s sales rose faster, rising 12.2pc on the prior year"

Its good to see Ocado Retail also performing well - full credit for most of that improvement is also down to M&S.

Hello Neil

100% agree.

My guess is that's what's on the agenda at the moment - the speculation about a disagreement is just misinformation.

Rebranding of Ocado Retail to M&S probably by Christmas 2025.