Member Info for chilting

I was just looking at the Morningstar data for ITX.

They consider Itaconix to have an Extreme uncertainty rating - as expected for a small company.

However, their Fair Value estimate for the company values it at 290p per share.

So, good news with improved sentiment should push the SP back towards the year high.

Morningstar consider a fair value for WTB to be 3,624p.

This is actually higher than I was expecting and a good indication that the SP could revalue in the next few months, especially if the FTSE100 remains fairly buoyant.

Its easy to speculate on the short term SP movements.

But for those of us who look at just the long term the following news is very encouraging.

Although Morningstar consider OCDO to have a Very High Uncertainty rating , they do consider their capital allocation to be Exemplary even though the company isn't yet profitable.

The best bit is that Morningstar consider that the fair value estimate for OCDO is 920p per share.

I have invested here for about 3 years and the SP has remained fairly flat - currently down about 8%.

We have to remember that this is a small company and its only comparatively recently been commercialising its medical products.

Also its very specialised and dependent on a very skilled labour force and expensive labs - this will restrict the speed of growth.

As shareholders we are probably faced with two scenarios.

The first is that the company continues to slowly grow over the next 5-10 years with periodic fundraising.

The second is a takeover.

From Tissue Regenix point of view, I guess it would possibly be easier for them to fund the company as a specialist independent division of a large corporation.

Personally, I think its very likely the company will be taken over within the next couple of years.

Interactive Investor considers the SP to offer fair value at around 64p.

Its easy to overanalyse OCDO at the moment.

In my view its simply following the market at the moment.

No doubt there will be a reaction to how Ocado Retail traded over Christmas and its possible the business may even be back in profit - that would give the SP a boost.

On the tech side in 2025 we can still hope for good news from Kroger and elsewhere.

Its very easy to see a poor outlook for Ocado from our point of view living in the UK, but other countries around the world are fairing far better and we could easily see expansion in these markets.

Ocado Retail is still growing strongly, so its reasonable to expect that the unused 20% will be required soon, maybe they even used it over the Christmas period?

The problem in the past was always lack of capacity, so a 20% cushion seems acceptable.

Yes, M&S is certainly the exception in a very poor UK market.

The assessment to be made in 2025 is if they can continue outperforming or if they will be pulled back.

I am inclined to hold MKS but sell elsewhere if the company I invest in aims to make most of its profits in the UK.

It has to be said that prospects for the UK economy in 2025-6 are dismal.

Yes, the SP is still vulnerable but news from Ocado Retail in the post Christmas update could change that.

I am predicting a return to profit for Ocado Retail - everything crossed.

In other words just waiting for news or will continue to move with the market.

Next news will probably be Christmas trading updates - Ocado Retail trading usually moves the SP, as least in the short term.

Yes, a bit like Jeff Bezos in the early days of Amazon.

Its possible that Kroger could buy Ocado but its unlikely because Kroger shareholders wouldn't like the deal.

Ocado is a money pit that would blead away their profits, they invest in supermarkets because they generate cash with steady profits.

The interesting thing from Ocado's point of view, now that the Albertson’s deal is dead, is what will Kroger do to cover the geographical areas that Albertson’s are strong in and Kroger don't trade in.

Kroger have already opening a CFC in Florida, with only one physical store in the north of the state - so they may copy this trading arrangement elsewhere.

One thing that will improve sentiment and give the SP a lift will hopefully be a return to profit for Ocado Retail at the next trading statement in the new year.

Although margins are still under considerable strain, the policy of selling more M&S and Ocado branded goods should help in the push towards profitability.

QANTAS

We should value all views here and Valueplay has called it right for some time now.

Although, I still believe that in the long term we will see a big reversal in fortunes and eventually Ocado will become an established profitable player.

In hindsight, Covid didn't help because it dramatically changed the market for a short period and pushed the SP to unstainable levels.

Now everything has to be done the hard way.

Hello Kitty

The online delivery is what we all see, but its the tech that provides online delivery that Ocado is developing for customers around the world.

Don't take my word for it - visit here

https://www.ocadogroup.com/

All good news from the companies point of view with what looks like a strong management team being assembled and investment for the future probably one of the first items on the agenda.

From a long term share holders point of view its all good, but dilution is very likely, so its probably better to hold for the time being and then invest more after dilution.

Ocado is a tech company not a supermarket.

They have no investment in bricks and mortar supermarkets - they leave that to their customers around the world.

Ocado Retail is a joint 50:50 venture with M&S that doesn't involve any investment by Ocado in M&S.

If Ocado started opening supermarkets they would be in direct competition with their customers.

The Proposed acquisition of Albertsons by Kroger is now officially off after regularity problems - Albertsons are now suing Kroger.

It will be interesting to see what Kroger do now - I won't speculate, but it will undoubtable have a big impact on the future of Ocado, positive or negative.

Stumpy

Shorts can certainly use todays news - its a gift for them on a quite day.

Buyers will be back when the loss is overdone - especially as news was storm in a teacup.

Today's news can easily just be taken as written.

Morrisons are concentrating their ops in one location and servicing more customers instore.

This frees up space for Ocado Retail to use.

Cash neutral for Ocado.