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There is always a reason why companies don't achieve their true value.

In Itaconix's case its simply because its small - small companies are given an Extreme uncertainty rating by the market.

Therefore, its sentiment that pushes the SP up towards the true value.

As the company matures and continues to gain market share the gap between the shares trading price and true value will reduce substantially.

Yes, its over sold now - we are in that period after the SP has taken a big hit, but before it rebounds - a good time to buy for the long term - certainly agree about the 10-15% rise back, but it could be quite a while before SP gets back to 400p.

Hello Neil

The main thing that has been underestimated is the time scale for the adoption of new tech.

Its not just Ocado tech but look at EV's for example.

I think Ocado's tech partners are experiencing similar problems, but as all markets are different its difficult to predict which will grow faster - my money would be on Japan, although Kroger in the US is now free to make its own decisions.

Don't be too downbeat.

There could still be a surprise from the update.

Ocado Retail may be back in profit.

I think it will mainly be economic news from the UK that controls the SP here this year.

This isn't a great prospect, but we will see some recovery of the SP in the short term.

In the longer term expect some stagnation, but the under lying sound fundamentals of the business will support the SP.

MKS is still a great long term investment - especially at the moment because its not over bought and the dividends add value.

The SP has now fallen back bellow Morningstar's fair value that was calculated on 10th December 2024 at 342p.

This is a good induction, I think , that the SP will recover some ground - probably above 350p.

Although, I guess the SP will be somewhat subdued for a while.

Growth is obviously slower than anticipated but that's more a reflection of the macro, rather than directly related to Ocado.

Also as Ocado introduce new tech the capital costs are reducing, so I am hopeful that Ocado Solutions customers will start to accelerate their development plans again and new customers will emerge.

Another plus to consider is rising revenue from the new CFC's that have now opened overseas.

Obviously shorting will continue, but a change in sentiment could occur with good news that would certainly lead to a rerate back towards Morningstar's fair value estimate of 920p.

To sum up, I don't think the shorts are going to find OCDO such an easy target this year and they will look for another corpse to suck.

The trading statement, due next Tuesday, only covers Q4 trading by Ocado Retail, including a Christmas update.

Don't expect any news from the tech side of the group.

Not forgetting the Republic of Ireland - currently five hotels in Dublin and one in Cork.

There must be more scope to develop this market into towns like Galway and Limerick plus some of the motorway routes.

SP really under pressure at the moment - a mix of reflecting the fall in MKS this morning and Trump worries.

MKS falling back on sentiment and worries for 2025 from an overbought position.

Trump's bizarre policies could push up borrowing costs - bad news for all growth companies.

Fully agree Pokerchips.

The big danger is Trump pushing up borrowing costs with his bizarre policies.

Reeves is unable to fund public finances after directly loosing the equivalent of one third of Income Tax receipts as a result of Brexit and Covid.

If borrowing costs soar then things will get much worst.

However, I still remain invested in the UK market, including companies like MKS that mainly trade in the UK.

Obviously the poor economic outlook and interest rate fears have taken there toll on sentiment this morning.

But, the real reason for the fall was simple - MKS was overbought. The Morningstar fair value estimate for MKS is 320p.

No reason to sell though, this is still a great investment, with dividends to come, no doubt the SP will recover, probably back into over bought territory, because the numbers were good.

Valueplay

It will depend on what level shorts remain at through the year.

Any reduction is likely to lift pressure on the SP - over time that will happen.

The algorithms are certainly working for ITX at the moment - basically lifting the SP to encourage investors to take profit, even on very low volume.

Most investors want more and won't be tempted to sell, so with news coming, I think there is more upside to come.

The board seem to be quite conservative and take sound, but unexciting, business decisions.

This is all OK but I think it also fails to excite investors, although fund manger's are reported to have more to invest this year, maybe that will help lift the SP back to its fair value.

Certainly good news for Ocado Retail, probably mainly driven by an increase in Christmas delivery slots.

If customers were impressed by the service then hopefully they will become regular shoppers.

More customers will take the slack out the system and bring the retail business back to profit.

I don't think relisting will work yet.

OCDO will need to be fully profitable with a great rating before that can happen.

Look at Ashtead, for example, they have waited for a very long time to make the move.

Maybe we are talking about 5-10 years time for OCDO?

Its mainly poor sentiment caused by uncertainty that's holding the SP back.

Ocado will begin to demonstrate that it can be a profitable company within the next few years.

This will remove the uncertainty, improve sentiment and lift the SP.

Its simply a question of when the tipping point comes.

There has been some shorting that has affected the SP but, I think the poor performance of the SP is a direct reflection of the markets WTB is trading in.

Both the UK and German economies are lack lustre.

Although WTB is a FTSE100 company, it faces many of the pressures of a FTSE250 company.

"Shorts are doomed to failure and desperate."

Sorry Qantas, but that's just a myth, it would be nice to think that but most have the option to cover their positions.

However, while they are doing that it does usually create a spike.