Member Info for chilting

Don't make the mistake of comparing Ceres with ITM.

Both businesses have very different business models.

While ITM is going all out to build, Ceres has played a waiting game and has and will follow the licencing route.

Ceres do have a small manufacturing unit but most of their capital spend is on R&D.

Also there two biggest partners, Bosch and Weichai have large shareholdings in Ceres.

I think that the SP will bounce back with the market if allowed to, otherwise we continue our waiting game for revenue to start flowing - this is the time to buy not sell.

Amazon have supply deals with many UK retailers - these are simply commercial deals to give the retailer access to the Amazon marketplace.

The fallout with Amazon buying Ocado wouldn't be a problem in the UK - Amazon would simply have to sell the other 50% of Ocado Retail, probably to M&S.

Its in the US and elsewhere that the deal would fail because Ocado Solutions partners, especially Kroger, are in hot competition to Amazon.

As for Waitrose, why would Amazon want a failing UK supermarket chain, even if JLP could make a decision to sell it.

They would be much more likely to buy Morrisons, Sainsburys or ASDA.

Crodas SP has hit a five year low today, apart from just after Covid hit us, so I guess that the directors will need to find solutions.

After the comments in their trading update it is possible that they will make a move for Itaconix.

I am not sure that the companies value would make that much difference to a large corporation if they really wanted Itaconix.

They would probably pay whatever was negotiated - it would just be small change.

Hopefully if we did find ourselves in this situation, more than one company would be interested.

More like general worries over energy supply and price - lets hope it doesn't kick off in the Gulf with Iran.

Croda have issued a Q3 trading update - its good and bad in the beauty sector- bad is a downturn in demand - good is that customers want innovation and sustainable products.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CRDA/third-quarter-trading-update/16157451

Valueplay

I have included your main driver under sentiment simply because Ocado's future is so unclear, as it always is with new tech and innovation.

This is illustrated by the broad range of broker targets over the years and SP volatility.

Obviously though news from the company and market place are one of the factors that drive sentiment, especially as we have seen over the last year or so, lack of trading profits. But this is more to do with a concern by shareholders regarding dilution - more sentiment.

I think there are two main drivers for OCDO, sentiment and the NASDAQ.

Sentiment is the short term driver and its liable to be hijacked by the shorts who massively exploit it and create far more volatility both ways with their trading.

The second "sane" driver is the NASDAQ - this controls the longer term value of OCDO.

I think that when the world economy settles, if it does, we will see the NASDAQ rising again and OCDO eventually following it but until that happens OCDO has a range governed by short term economic misery and false dawns - maybe between 500p and 1000p but who knows.

Yes, someone offloading - probably for their own reasons.

Lets hope we see a big buyer emerging from the shadows.

Your chart certainly shows the volatility in OCDO over the last year Boyobach.

Its actually an excellent example of the effect short trading can have on a companies share price in the short term, although eventually the SP will find its true value, as it probably has at the moment.

We don't all buy for the short term 1863 - SP will rise in anticipation ahead of revenue anyway.

Anything under 300p is good value here with Liberum's target for of 800p certainly achievable.

Yes, another fantastic buying opportunity.

The UK may be lukewarm on renewables but its a totally different story in South Korea and China.

The market is very shortsighted.

It looks like the SP will stay around the 230p mark unless the market takes a big hit.

I think we will have to wait for the Christmas update to see more upside.

Director buys always provide a strong signal in times of stress.

Maybe they do now have control over the destiny of the business.

I should add that OCDO hasn't got back to its June low but is showing signs that it still could.

Its interesting to note that the SP is still broadly following the NASDAQ, in an exaggerated way, both OCDO and the NASDAQ have traded back to early June lows.

An indication I think that its still the macro that is then underlying driver of the SP, especially interest rate worries.

I guess its a good indication that they are confident that the tech can be sorted in Italy.

Bad news for M&S, but she isn't standing down until Feb 2025 - so plenty of time to do more damage to the sinking ship.

I wonder what skills this potential new applicant would bring to the job?

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcReuIKlJPu1D5s9TO43pFySqheY5kv7xwYIzQ&usqp=CAU

Looking forward the first step is to prove the tech in Italy or there won't be a future.

Next step sort out financing for the long term in Q1 2024.

The problem then is without the big capital projects - these would have grown the company quickly - what are they left with?

There are plenty of small scale projects in the pipeline but can these replace the projects that have been cancelled?

How many small projects would the company need to complete a year to remain viable?

Is this really viable as a PLC at all, or would it be better run on a smaller scale?