Member Info for chilting

5. I was surprised how passive the motorists were - should have flattened the b**stards.

Hopefully the production numbers from Magnus will be much better next time around and surprise the market - we already know that they have improved since June - there is good potential there.

The problem with that is Jan that the 22% rise from GE has to be balanced with the fall in production announced in the last update - we could just be back where we were before the update when everything pans out, with not much to show from the last rights issue.

Bouncy! Bouncy!

Boyobach
Yes, exactly the impatient investors are departing leaving the long term holders in both companies.

I am no fan of ITM though, they have invested heavily to supply capital equipment with no proven demand - Linde seem to have the best strategy to limit their exposure but still benefit big time if ITM's gamble does pay off.

Ceres have lots more options going forward and eventual investment will be mainly provided by their business partners.

ITM results out this morning - steady progress, heavily reliant on Linde, with plenty of cash in the bank - revenue from sales up 30%, that's good, but grant income down, still loss making overall - I guess their SP could fall, its never great looking back for growth companies, and CWR could follow?

" Hydrogen is beautiful you can get it in many wonderful colours"
First we had grey then blue, then green now we have gold - romaron will love this!

Two British Scientists are on the hunt to find deposits of hydrogen trapped deep underground that can be exploited for "cheap" green energy - they have called the Hydrogen, Gold Hydrogen.

So far is seem that results have been rather limited, although one native in Mali blew himself up when he lit a cigarette while digging a well to find water - the well contained gasses with a 97% hydrogen content.

Neil
Yes, and M&S are doing a very good job flagging the issues in Northern Ireland and France.
No question that the Northern Ireland stores should remain trading whatever happens.
Also, I think the French franchises should be retained as long as they have long term profitability, they flag commitment and probably also help online sales - lots of UK expats live in France.

Its not great that its probably more or less a forced closure due to border issues relating to Brexit - this issue certainly needs sorting, because it relates to Northern Ireland as well - Government is supposed to clear obstacles for trade, not create them!

romaron
All that had to happen with Enquest was that peak Kraken production came at a time Brent was high, then we all would have been happy.

I spread the risk by simple diversification and not investing too much in the contrarian's and emerging small caps - I learnt that lesson by holding too much in Enquest in the past and the SXX debacle.

Caveats are always relevant when commenting on Enquest because we never get the full picture.

I tried to counter this when tanker watching the Kraken field and this helped in that regard but none of us saw the plunge in production reported in the last update.

So everything regarding Enquest has to come with a caveat and that also applies to the oil price - this is why Enquest is such a contrarian investment and is reflected in the SP by the lack of long term positive sentiment for the company.

The gamble is that AB will one day get it right when Brent is high and then the SP will soar - its not about build it and they will come - it will be down to pure luck.

News soon - correct.
We can expect a post close update for H1 in the next ten days or so followed by the Interims on 26th October - that will hopefully get the SP out of the doldrums and moving up towards 3500p+

I sense good pressure to go higher on the upper range of the SP but maybe the volatility is attracting traders to make easy money - hence the dip this week.

Personally I prefer warts and all posting - its rather pointless all being cheerleaders - say it as you see it.

It seems that Magnus is a particularly hard work asset, so with Covid and company cutbacks as a result of Covid, maybe Enquest haven't had the chance to nurture it much until this Summer - the update talks about improvement since June - so there is a chance, I think, that production could surpass expectations over the coming months and into 2022 with two new wells also planned for 2022.

This is what the last update reported - note the Coiled Tubing Campaign - not sure what it is, but it seems significant.

"Production of 13,847 Boepd was 26.4% lower than in 2020, primarily reflecting slower execution and an increase in scope of the well intervention programme, combined with an unplanned third-party outage, power related failures and natural declines associated with the new wells that were brought onstream in early 2020. Given the challenges that have been presented during the first half of the year, a proactive production enhancement programme was initiated comprising various well intervention techniques, including a coiled tubing campaign, alongside additional topside maintenance activities. Since June, three wells have been returned to service and production performance has improved. The coiled tubing campaign is expected to continue during the second half of the year, with the Group expecting production performance to improve further in the fourth quarter, with a two-well drilling campaign anticipated in 2022."

Yer, I didn't explain what I meant very well - what I was basically saying is that the actions that AB was forced to take because of Covid hit the production numbers and to rectify the expected dip AB did the GE deal.

Therefore, shareholders were hit by a rights issue and gained no net benefit from it, but long term it will hopefully be a price worth paying even though it may not show up directly in the SP.

M&S are effectively managing Ocado Retail from the sales and marketing side in much the same way as Ocado Solutions partners do around the world.

So although M&S don't take all the profit, a lot of the credit for the way the business has moved forward in the last year is down to M&S, and with continued investment Ocado Retail is likely to become an increasing dominant force in the UK grocery market.

I guess at some stage M&S will buy the other 50% of Ocado Retail or at least part of it - Ocado Group may retain a percentage to cover the logistical and development costs associated with Ocado Retail.

Clearly AB will purchase GE to restore production levels - this is the price he has paid, and its partly to cover production from assets lost last year as a result of Covid.

Shareholders, including AB, have picked up the bill for GE in the rights issue but will not actually benefit from it in a rise in the SP - because it will probably end up balancing out the decline in the value of the SP because of the fall in production.

So, when the purchase of GE goes through the SP is likely to recover to around the 26p mark if I am correct - this will be break even. Anything over and shareholders are quids in, under and we have lost out.

I do wonder if this RNS had more relevance than it appeared to at the time - it seems that equity held by some US shareholders wasn't able to be traded until this restriction was removed?

Maybe when some of these US holders sold and this was followed by the trading update the effect on the SP was far more negative than it would have been normally.

Now with the traded shares in sticky hands the SP is recovering.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ITX/removal-of-us-securities-law-restrictions/15063156

"Nonsensical drivel is what really counts."

Well we sure get plenty of that, and before anyone asks, yes i do plead guilty - sometimes - especially on long posts.