The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
At what price would Lloyds be 'without' the buy backs?
What total buying power has been lost for lth's of Lloyds due to years of inflation?
To what effect has the lowly dividend added to this undoubted large drop in wealth for lth's?
So many questions, met by 'so many excuses'
Never a bad day here, provided you don't look to hard or think too deeply.
iii however a wonder, but no comparison with Lloyds and if so,iii a trusted winner compared to Lloyds, a lame cart horse, which is still being burdened with more load to drag it down, yet STILL more money is placed upon it, yet with all the treatments failing to cure the lameness, and NO new cures left to try.
See it for what it is.
Dire share
House prices are bound to fluctuate, but as with many items it is not so much that their value has risen, more a case of the GBP £ has 'lost' value, increasing house and everything else's price (apart from Lloyds shares which nothing, buybacks, and double digit inflation consistently fails to 'inflate')
As for supply and demand, just because the figures show the numbers here are not 'increasing' as rapidly as some fear, the FACT remains that most of the migrants leaving the UK will be doing so with the wherewithal to not only buy their own home, but also to fund their new life away via pensions and savings.
Yet most of these arriving will do so with nothing but the obligatory essential phone to gain information of 'how to' and 'what to say' etc, but no money for their then state provided eventual home, and in many cases children, elderly, sick and just workshy, no means of funding that costly home or their families needs here.
So the population issue isn't all as black and white as mere 'numbers'.
Stats can be used if carefully chosen to prove anything, yet on deeper investigation of stats with common sense and honesty are often a far more accurate representation of what is 'really' going on.
Remember IF inflation is bought down to expected levels, prices won't drop, they just rise less quickly.
So whilst Lloyds are fortunate in having atm houses on their books not in negative equity, they have much commercial property which is.
A house from any debtor will easily be rented out or sold, NOT so commercial property and the latter has to be 'made safe' to prevent the lovable rouges children's from 'getting hurt' as they use such as playgrounds and a training ground for would be arsonists.
HMG has created inflation and I can't imagine that they never knew the consequences would be any different when creating QE and being over generous with Covid payouts for all.
We will now pay the price for Gov still being over generous on benefits, hence the constant arrivals since 'mobile data' has eradicated the need to await an Oxfam or UNICEF truck.
Instead of relying on this 'vested interest' board, who are like parents of wayward children, NEVER going to admit what a failure they /it is, read the news, and feel the winds of change.
The Tories are not doing what people hoped they would do when the voted for them. They wanted to see more of the traditional values re-instated, but, instead the Tories are behaving more like a Labour Government would.
The give more and more to the massively growing benefit brigade, a Robin Hood style leadership, whereby any business making money is punished by stealth taxes, and anyone with savings gets no help, yet anyone arriving with nothing and being a burden on all our services which our parents and grandparents worked hard to gain us a better life is freely given to anyone who has done nothing for our economy. Bad enough when it were just the indigenous leeching our wealth and health services.
So threats of taking property to pay for care, anyone who has saved cash is seen as a target to milk, along with companies who 'do well', has LOST the respect of anyone who choose Tories over Labour because now the Tories are only seen worthy of a vote if you are ultra wealthy.
Whilst people will rightly say 'it will be worse under Labour' YES likely it will, but the Tories need to see that working people are sick of huge amounts of people using having children as a life style, getting a free roof, no council tax to pay, extra help with food, and heating, free dental care a prescriptions for the whole family, free school meals even in school holidays, and thousands a year in tax credits yet all their essentials already paid for.
As our population grows ever more, then the very wealthy who are always immune, as are the CEO's and Government could not care less about the whinges and whines of the ordinary working people, UNTIL they are booted out.
And as we know, if, or imo, WHEN Labour get in, then to hold Lloyds will be a huge mistake, and so those directors getting out early, before the rest 'wake up' and follow suit, bringing the share price down even lower are likely not so much very wise but better informed and can read the winds of change.
Of course some on here will NEVER accept such, and will pretend to be rejoicing as the share price ebbs away, seemingly gleeful than 'more shares ' can be bought back, ignoring the billions spent having done nothing positive, as some likely overly stern critical parents, cannot ever accept or admit they made a wrong choice.
The directors have voted with their feet, and have shown the way they don't just feel, but likely know what is coming for their profits.
As I was first to point out to the 'blinkered' on here, IMO perhaps a ploy by UK politics to allow Labour a victory to then trash fully the economy to then allow a future vote of no confidence, and have a later Tory Gov 'save the UK' BUT with a proviso of a 'New Deal' with the EU which would likely very much RESEMBLE the PRE LEAVING arrangeme
So, three of the other 'chosen' shares have near DOUBLED in value, and ALL the other shares are higher than Lloyds, proving that this is as dire as Newchurch years ago suggested it was.
So a useful, although not needed conformation of what most know, yet few dare admit.
It is the FUTURE more than the current 'fundamentals' the market puts more credence into.
With those more in the know selling up, with a Labour victory almost certain, and the UK being punished for 'leaving', yet being filled daily with morecostly burdens to pay for via an already impoverished people, 'what' could possibly go wrong?
Just because we live here and like me, wished to leave and glad we are out, doesn't mean that we won't be made to pay one hell of a price for it.
Labour will punish banks even more than this shower. So likely directors see the 'future' far clearer than any of us ever will.
Them selling up by itself not such a worry, but the falling share price after good results is more concerning so a Summer of misery is more than likely for us holders, and as time ticks closer to the next g.e certain to slide even more.
Imagine how low Lloyds would be without buybacks against our competitors, that tells you 'something' is in the wind.
A dire lth's share with a bleak future.
Still best go with the majority view that all is well, and the board, financial investors and the world is out of step not bb armchair experts.
Again you are 'missing' the point here.
Whilst a trade deal is NOT 'being a member' of the EU, what my point is, is, say in the future our trade deal with the EU is dependant on us 'accepting a given quote of immigrants' allowing all EU countries members to have free movement as before, and we pay them billions a year, as before, so that 'EVERYTHING' is EXACTLY as it was, EXCEPT we are not a 'member' of the EU, then that is a fear many 'see' could happen albeit not so 'extreme' as that least not all in one move.
So SHOULD that happen, you would still insist 'as we are not members of the EU' you were 'right' but the point being, people don't worry over the 'in or out' issue so much as they do of fearing that by the British being made a scape Goat, that as we see on here the resolve of the weaker public may well 'accept' a future 'deal' with the EU, but NOT necessarily a re joining of the EU.
Akin to the war in Ukraine officially ending, but if the Russians never left and kept killing going on both sides, the end of the war officially would be declared but the killing of people on both sides would still be as vile for them and their families so an official title, name or status often is the 'least' important to normal people.
Bored now, no more, not because you are right, as your not, but as it get boring for all, but mostly myself.
I am sure we will find many other things to disagree respectfully on soon.
You have proven what I said. That even IF any future trade deals mirrored those of us when we were 'in' then you would still insist you were right because we 'had not officially re-joined'
Yet normal people aren't concerned over trifling words but of what any future deals 'mean' to our decisions and fate going forwards, so if any future deals make us WORSE off than when we were 'in' to most, that is what matters much, not point scoring on a two words, 'in, or out'
That is what I and people here can see coming, a deal as bad as we had before when, in.
Whilst you just like to nit pick on detail, pretending not to understand, so long as you are sticking to dull, pointless facts.
Computer logic, zero or one, nothing in between as computer cant 'see' anything but cold facts. Luckily most are more human and get the gist of what others are saying.
You ought to be a barrister letting off the vilest beings on mere 'technicalities', as if that is ALL that matters.
PS your statement oft quoted by you of "The market decides on a daily basis." is indeed fact, but what that 'means' is the market doesn't just come up with a price for no reason, so the 'Deciding Market' has 'decided' that buybacks have not improved the future of Lloyds enough to ensure 'buyers' are willing to pay more for a bank who whilst making profits clearly are seen as having a bleak period coming, otherwise the share price would be rising .
Hence I said the shareprice, says more than any poster ever can, for that 'is' the market giving it's wider opinion of our potential, not just a bunch of can't bear to admit I made a mistake holders, with a few traders who have played it right.
So, at what 'point' does the whole worlds investing fraternity suddenly 'wake up' and allow the market to 'add' this perceived value, that, at present' only a handful of very wise can 'see'?
One question that will not be answered, just fudged at best.
I was the first on here to suggest that the constant project fear pre the vote, from the world and its dog being so obviously relentless would not then 'allow the plebs democratic vote to leave' to be 'accepted' if it went against what 'they' wanted.
Pre the vote the vast majority of the MP's from most all parties, business leaders and indeed the 'then' President of the U.S, who even 'added' his two dimes worth in trying to persuade the British to vote to remain.
So to me, after the surprise vote, it was obvious that democracy had to be 'seen' to be carried out, but in the weakest terms. Hence T. May a 'remainer' was left to do their bidding. She failed. Hence the more trusted by the masses Bungling loveable Boris ended up arranging a 'deal'.
But this still left the EU's top leaders with a problem, for IF the UK was seen to do ok, then, others would surely follow, contagion being what they feared most, so what to do?
Answer obvious, make it as hard, as costly as troublesome as they can, for as long as they can, to 'show' what happens if you break rank, and all the time, the EU know that the US, and every business leader with 'vested interests' in keeping the EU 'together' will fully support, aide and abate them fully.
So it was clear we would be, and will be in for a very hard time for a very long time, with our wonderfully loyal BBC spreading the misery with glee to the masses.
Therefore imo, it is NOT unreasonable to suggest and expect, some Party, after years of the British still suffering what they hoped the 'vote' would change, one being unfettered migration still rampant and now, added to that valid reason to leave, years of falling living standards, which although we 'leavers' could see is little to do with us leaving the EU as much is due to the cost,effects of Covid, and the War, but all is blamed upon us doing so at every given chance by the vocal remainers.
Point being on this Lloyds bb, is that Lti would STILL say, if a 'back door' deal was done for us to have very very much closer future links to the EU, even if it mirrored that of us 'still being in' that because it would not be classed as the UK physically rejoining the EU 'he' was right.
But what people imo, rightly fear, is that some future Politician or party will slowly, softly make new deals, with new strings attached to get us where the EU, the U.S, and many vested interest business owners and top wealthy people wanted us to be by remaining.
So a near back in, slowly staggered deals to ensure the EU, and have us where 'they' want us , but 'still out' in name is what I forecast within a decade. Lti, can still crow 'he was right' no fanfare 'rejoining' ceremony but the plan can commence as before once more.
The British sadly are not what they were, MP's have seen to that from all parties, and lack of loyalty to a destination your current free supplied home is built upon is not enough to respect the democracy of the hand that feeds
BLB does have a point though that after much hoped for milestones were reached and passed, doing so i gave no 'lasting' if any increase in value to this share price.
Gov getting fully out (least insomuch as holding shares, NOT imo in continuing interference)
Divs reinstated.
PPI finally seemingly over.
Property price increases.
Interest rates increases.
Would love to witness posters faces if they held the sums 'invested' or devested in Lloyds in a savings account and received 11% interest per annum, yet ended up with less capital over decades of holding in most cases, UNLESS they had taken some 'capital out' and gambled it to make more (trading Lloyds shares) and then 'put that sum back in' to then convince themselves that 'the safe dull boring bank' had 'made them wealthy.
It hasn't, but their risk of gambling had.
An 'investment' should give the investor a better return by investing, not 'having' to gamble their capital by trading.
So as a traders share this 'may' be reasonable, but as an 'investment' a dire, appalling, choice, and what with all those hoped for by most, milestones passed and STILL a poor performance then 'what' hope the future.
And telling all, that 'buybacks' are the 'answer' when billions have been spent already, you are IF truly believing such, saying, that the current share price would be EVEN LOWER without having such, is even more disgusting than it shows to be.
If you remove the inflation reduction in share price 'worth' over not just this double digit inflation but the years many have held this, then the hard fact is, this share has been, is and likely will continue to be one of the worst investors choices over a decade or more in a large FT100 share.
We will never convince one another, but I have proof at the end of everyday in the closing price, that I am fully vindicated in my views and so has all others if honest, or if having bought at the ultra lows.
...seemingly disagrees with the 'view' that buybacks are adding to Lloyds valuation, and that higher interest rates are seemingly also adding nothing to the share price either. As when compared to others such as NWG and Barcl, Lloyds, despite these 'expected' saviours of the dismal share price, have not lifted us away from the competitors, in fact we are doing worse against them than before now.
As the Market is more telling than a bunch of eternally hopefuls, seemingly delighted at getting a 'perceived' double digit gain by holding Lloyds, yet watching their capital value invested drop away at a faster pace, then quite telling and concerning IF you're honest.
Fortunate on here that most only see what they wish to see.
... that this alleged coming PPI redress issue that HMG are discussing will effect Lloyds in any way?
Also when HMG sell their holding in Lloyds will this raise or lower the share price, as a mixed blessing?
And finally do we think that if Lloyds decided to slash the dividend and do buybacks instead, we will all see a rise in 2022, as some are suggesting the board may choose that option.
P.S that China flu thing seems to be a bit of a concern, but unlikely to reach our shores.
We are the 'Mother of the free (loaders)' and until we see a flotilla of small craft leaving, then things can't be that bad here.
As usual for Lloyds if house prices go up, the whinge of 'unaffordability' will echo forth, If they go down then 'all those properties on Lloyds books are dragging the share price down'
So either way, we know which way we are heading, always North, no wonder it's still so cold this Spring.
"What impact would this have on Lloyds etc?"
On profits, plenty. On shareholders returns, zero. Imo
Just more profit to be syphoned off to feed house and increase the UK's ever growing 'alleged' impoverished, after of course the 'board' had taken it's share first.
The loss for shareholders of the PPI 'mis-selling' is imo still an issue.
For whilst the re-payment of such to those whose were mis-sold such may be over, the fact remains that although immoral, was very lucrative for Lloyds.
And since the 'best' they can do to replace such income with, is billions in buybacks, and as we see any gains which 'may' have been added to the puny share price is soon lost within hours on any bad news, then the FUTURE loss of income from having an interfering Government, likely to replaced with an even more controlling Government will never ever allow banks to make money from the public unless fully informed of 'better alternatives'.
Thus easy profits gone now forever, and even the large profits they do make is under observation as HMG are not 'happy' that interest rate increases are not being passed on to savers in High street banks, DESPITE the Gov making it easier to 'change banks' and countless emails or letters INFORMING people of their interest rates paid.
So as I say, HMG have left the building but still hold the puppet strings for banks and will never ever relinquish that hold again.
Lloyds just a buffer zone purse for Gov failures to fund the public, who HMG need to squander as businesses and High Streets depend now on 'tat' purchases such as expensive designer Cups of Coffee, or nail bars, etc etc as we have few manufacturing businesses for HMG to gain tax by now.
So a huge, ever unorgainically growing population 'geared' and needed to spend to keep the UK businesses hanging in there, but merely circulating borrowed money, not creating it anymore.
What could possibly go wrong for the UK and Lloyds? I can't see a problem...
Gewilla
Thank you for your post, and no it isn't rude to suggest what you have re holding onto long term laggards.
The difficulty is doing something about it insomuch as finding a sector or company which has future growth potential of course that is not already had such priced in.
So fear of 'out of the frying pan, into the fire' always prevents the less bold from making such a decision.
As you have proven that is often the right way to improve you finances, but I wager a lot, perhaps less likely to admit, have found the frying pan more comfortable at times!
Sadly never invested in US shares but their Gov doesn't seem to bow to public pressure to windfall tax anything that is making profit as this, and certainly the next likely Gov will do here.
Thanks for suggestions which I will truly consider.