Member Info for chester18

It is natural that our minds ponder the reason for such quiet.

A bid or a buy out is most unlikely in my eyes because nothing is proven and we know data is key to any large pharma parting with cash.

Chester.

Hi Bamps

I always thought that the MRE would be increased several times prior to the PFS.
I know Newcrest aim to have everything in place around September / October to announce the PFS but I would have thought they would want to adjust the Inferred to a larger Indicated in advance as part of the build up process.

I think July's report should include most of the 65,000 mtrs of drilling promised to be done by the end of June 2021. I know they were behind that target because of the weather back in March / early April.

Chester.

@SpadesAspade

I agree, I used to read every post because the vast majority were about GGP, Havieron or Newcrest. That has changed a lot since the highs of January.

My question about Wednesday nights report comes from the fact that we've had three great updates and each time the SP has risen modestly prior to the Drill Core report and then fallen back in the days after. I'm sure this next report will be just as good if not better than the end of Aprils but without that MRE update will it be enough to start the journey back to a fair value price of around 28p ?
I'm not convinced.

I honestly think the sentiment / market for GGP is now controlled by the traders who are using these reports to make 10 % / 15 % and sell. My opinion is that we need a bigger catalyst, some gold laden cores from Goliath would be very helpful..... : )

Chester.

It is my presumption that the end of July Quarterly will be catalyst to an increase in the MRE and therefore the much needed improvement in the SP.

Is this why the chat board and the SP are so subdued, everyone thinking the same, that what ever the Drill Core results are on Wednesday the SP is stuck until we get an updated MRE ?

Chester.

I'm trying to stay chilled but can't help taking an early peek each day for the possibility of the RNS red dot.

I'll take next Thursday 10th for a double RNS. MODI 1 plus a Mabs deal....... Not Greedy......lol

Chester.

Hi C7

We have certainly had to 'endure quiet time' during our relationship with Scancell.
I think there are a few that for their patience alone should get a special 'Gold Medal' inscribed
" For Stoicism and Unrelenting Fortitude"

Anyway, News is Closer by another Day.

Chester.

AND, based on the official Scancell aspiration of the MODI1 trial starting in H1 2021, I am fairly certain that June should not come and go without some form of explanation if none of the 3 trials are ready to start.

Therefore with there only being 4 weeks until the end of the month, there is a 25% chance of receiving an RNS by next Wednesday.

Good Luck All
'TICK TOCK'

Chester.

Timeline aspirations set out by Scancell are now creating the perfect dilemma of 'Stick or Twist'.

The 'News in weeks' media portrayal back in March gave the impression that Covidity would started well before now. As the delay in communication continues any possible predictions as to why, can now fall either side of positive / negative reasons.

A negative : Could it be that the final lab tests are not producing the necessary results to guarantee trial success ?

But there is a dimension to this 'Radio Silence' that just doesn't fit with the likelihood of a Negative RNS.

There is a lot of potential news that we all correctly presume should have been communicated by now.

SCIB 1
MODI 1
COVIDITY
AVIDIMAB
GLYCAN MABS
SCIB 2
NEW PEPTIDE DELIVERY PLATFORM.
INTEREST FROM POSS PARTENERS
GOVERNMENT INTEREST IN 2ND GEN
CEPI INTEREST
NHS TRIAL SITES
US TRIAL SITES

There is a great amount of news worthy stuff happening inside and potentially with Scancell for there to have been such a long period of silence.

As usual we will find out when the company are free to say but I'm not ruling out all of the above PLUS, left field which has happened many times in the last 10 years.

Chester.

As a measurement, '105 days' is just a tad sorter than :
'in the coming weeks' ....lol

I would be very surprised if there was no direct communication from the company in June. They have advised in various interviews that it was their goal to start at least MODI 1 in H1 2021.

I still think the £82k buy by Vulpes just recently spoke volumes, that amongst the science and various platforms everything was coming together nicely.

Chester.

Congratulations C7 and C11

Great team effort to keep City to so few clean chances......

Chester.

Hi C7

I just imagine that it would be very easy for a Non-Exec to be kept abreast of details that we would never be party to. In this current moment why would he not know how close they are to starting a trial or how the Covidity programme is progressing.

I might be completely wrong but I would love to be able to ring up CH and have an open chatette about 'how's it going'. I would probably be ringing the bank for a loan...... : )

Chester.

Hi C7

I'm not sure about Vulpes being able to buy another 400k shares close to a positive 'share moving' RNS.

That would give them a licence to print money. So the way I see it, if it is a Vulpes buy any significant news must now be weeks away.

Chester.

Hi Knowlesi

It could well be Vulpes just based on the number bought but I hope its not because if it is it then means that the news we all crave is at least 4 weeks away. Why, because on the Insider Trading angle.

I would have thought that Martin Diggle is far to close to the action to allow Vulpes to have such an advantage over the market. I hope the large buy is a 'copy cat' buyer ...... LoL

Chester.

Hi Cars

I take your point and I do accept that rather that a firm promise it is more of an aspiration. I do hope that we are told if those aspirations are slipping.

Chester.

Hi Cars

Cliff Holloway stated that fact in the interviews with Proactive Investors and Turner & Pope. In both he says Covidity to start mid year.

Chester

The timelines in my posts come directly from the last few interviews and presentations. On the Turner and Pope it shows that MODI1 should now be recruiting where as I would just like to hear that we have been Trial Approved with some flesh on the bone.

The readiness of the whole Covidity Platform is unknown but to be able to start the trial by mid-year as promised we need to hear that it is Trial Ready before the end of June.

I think the thing that is most concerning is what happens if the silence continues past the stated timeline. Considering how we as shareholders rallied to the BODs request to support the Convertible Loan Notes :

Cliff Holloway, Chief Executive Officer of Scancell, said: "We are extremely grateful to our shareholders for their support for this transformational funding round. The £33.0 million raised will allow the Company to broaden its development pipeline and build the resources required to advance multiple clinical programmes in parallel. Our initial focus will be on our lead products Modi-1 and SCIB1, as well as the initial clinical evaluation of our vaccine for COVID-19. We look forward to updating the market with our progress in due course."

The decent thing to do is to ensure they communicate to the shareholders exactly where we are at.

Chester.

If new investors arrive on mass and some intend to grab say 1M shares where will those shares come from. I postulate that it will be smaller holders taking a 30% or 40% profit. To reach 65p we would need to see a near 200% rise from the current 21p.

Chester.

So PI's hold 47.96% of the total share issue roughly 391,000,000 shares.
If the average holding is 200,000 shares then we have approx 2,000 ish PI's.

When Scancell become attractive to much larger investors ( which could happen by end Sept / early Oct on release of positive Covidity Ph1 safety data ) the number of small holders will diminish very quickly. The tighter we hold on to the shares the faster the SP will climb.

For those that wish to see an early return, lets for convenience sake say 65p a share, it is vital that we all hold on tight and not be tempted to trade on the manufactured dips by the MM's, because it will happen.

Once Ph1 safety and tolerance data is in Scancells hands that is when a large Pharma Co has to be involved, that will cause a real upward push of the SP.

Chester.

Hi Crumbs

If we compare ourselves with the Oxford team at the start of the pandemic then they were lightyears ahead because they were already working on their Viral Vector vaccines and it was just a case of re-modelling the constituent parts and getting the safety aspect underway.

When we approached the Government it was on the basis of 'we think we can build a second stage vaccine'. We are about to prove that platform in humans something Viral Vectors had already achieve.

Mark my words, if / when Covidity proves itself to be safe and functioning as described in the lab our government will put in whatever money is necessary to drive it thought the phase 2 / 3 trials. That's if CEPI don't step in first....... : )

Chester.

We can safely say that our government know exactly the global worth and prestige of a successful Covidity Platform. Boris and Co would be jumping up and down at the news of the first workable Universal Vaccine hailing from the UK.

Why the radio silence from Scancell, I have know idea but I'm going to presume everything is working OK and they are gearing up for the big reveal.

If an insurmountable problem had occurred we would have been told, so we should be fairly certain that we are now in the final days of not knowing.

There is a good potential for news landing this coming week, end of the month, just five weeks until H1 runs out, still gives enough time to start the Modi 1 trial 'on time' and Covidity to start Mid Year.

Good Luck All

Chester.