Member Info for Chatmandu

Hang on Mark. I'm not making negative commentary on South Africa. I'm pointing out that the share price drops appear to be related to the trouble in South Africa.

The current situation as I see it:

- The consensus view is that SLP are about to announce record results.
- SLP is a well managed company with no surprises lurking in the books.
- All things being equal, the price should be static or rising in anticipation of the results.
- The share price is actually tanking.

Why?
- The obvious answer is fear.

Fear of what?
- Journalists have openly started mentioning civil war.
- That will impact the share price. I find it odd that people seem to think otherwise.

How much fear?
- a 20% drop in share price means *the market* is pricing in that quantity of risk.
- Whether that assessment of the risk is right or wrong is open to debate, but it is the risk that the market has assigned to the share price.

I agree. I've made a small top-up at 102.6p.

I may make more. I may not.

All buy and sell decisions are logical for the people making them, therefore the price is always logical. You might not agree with the logic, but that's another issue entirely.

apparently the word 'rac_ist' is automatically filtered out, in case anybody thought I had a potty mouth.

"Reading more aftermath reports of looting and looks like security forces and locals various have stabalized or are stabalizing situations."

Agreed - although I do think there is a tendency for Western media to gloss over problems in the Rainbow Nation. There is a lot invested in the success of post-Apartheid SA and journalists are, understandably, wary of feeding into the various ****** narratives regarding African nations.

No. That's a logical fallacy. The market is pricing in risk for SLP and that's all you can tell from a drop in SLP's share price. THS isn't having the same level of risk assigned by the market and it's shares aren't falling to the same degree.

I don't know enough about the geographical spread of SLP's and THS's operations, or their security provisions, to ascertain if they are currently suffering from the same level of security risk, political risk, etc. If the big sellers of SLP are in Asia (as suggested by another poster) then that is another factor - e.g. are as high a proportion of THS's shares owned in Asia? Are those owners as concerned as SLP's former owners, etc.

I've logged into my dealing account with the intention of buying, but it appears to be a falling knife at the moment. Live pricing was down over 6%, but that's now pulled back slightly to 5.27%. I think I'll wait to see if the notoriously unhinged Mr Market decides to offer me a better price.

I think you're misinterpreting my comments. I'm not down on SLP in any way - it's my best performing share and I'm planning to keep holding. I'm just trying to quantify the current risks vs the share price. The current chaos on the streets appears to be impacting the share price. Does anybody else have a better reason for the current weakness (beyond bowel movements and tealeaves)? .Somebody else has stated that the Far East are selling. If so, it is possibly due to a fear of the current situation spiralling out of control.

I stand by my earlier comment - if the market is 'logical', then the market's view is that there is either a 100% chance of SLP suffering a 20% setback or a 20% chance of a 100% wipeout or something in between. ;-)

I'm of the same opinion. Charts, etc, are simply a comfort blanket.

I think the share is a one way bet, so long as there isn't a total wipeout due to social unrest, civil war or government nationalisation.

I have no idea how likely those events are, but the market seems to think there is a 20%+ chance of it happening because the share price has dropped by that amount.

If you can stomach the political risk, then I think this is a clear buying opportunity.

I tend to like a bit of political risk in the UK, because our politicians have a habit of talking tough for the media coverage and then failing to follow through. I've made quite a bit of cash in the past by investing during a media storm, but I don't know enough about SA politics or the current social unrest to quantify what it means for SLP's operations.

Anybody with better in country knowledge?

"1) Rhodium price fell to $17,500/oz this week, it's lowest level since early January and more than 50% off recent highs.
2) Rising covid cases in South Africa will get worse.
3) The rioting, triggered by political factors may lead to increasing unrest. Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec Bank Ltd yesterday highlighted the possibility of civil war.

Numbers 2 & 3 are also affected PAF given it has touched 3 month lows despite a strong set of year end Operational Results today."

Wouldn't a threat to the supply of a metal result in an increase of the metal's spot price? When we see instability in a major oil producing region, it is normally associated with a rise in oil prices.

Thanks. There doesn't appear to be a way to edit posts, so I guess it is up to the mods at this point.

I wasn't suggesting that this is an example of false accounting, I was simply pointing out that it has happened before and small investors are usually kept in the dark (so was Warren Buffet in the case of Tesco).

Insider Trading is much more common - e.g. there could have been an item of unexpected expenditure that we aren't party to. Unfortunately, that type of information tends to leak out into financial circles and institutional investors move first.

If you don't think there is any bad news to be announced in the upcoming accounts, then the price move is illogical and this is a buying opportunity.

Why is it laughable? We've seen plenty of examples of insider trading and false accounting - e.g. Tesco, Patisserie Valerie, Carillion, etc.

If it isn't insider trading, then there isn't really a logical explanation for the share price dropping when the results are already 'in the bag' based upon the known metal prices.

All we can do is wait for the results to be released.

One of the following is happening:
- Insider trading based upon poor results or knowledge of something else - e.g. fraudulent accounting.
- Market movements are 'random' and not based upon company fundamentals - e,g, political instability, fear, sentiment, tea leaves, etc.

We'll only know after the accounts are released. I'm expecting good results, so the share price should soar - but the market may continue to behave irrationally (if that's what is actually happening now).

I'm sitting tight and may top up if the price falls further.

** Off topic **

"most folks out there are considerably poorer and them and don't see the world thru the same eyes."

In the UK they've been actively pricing people off the roads for a long time. They've now increased the population from 58 million (year 2000) to 66+ million today. The roads can't cope and driving is painful. Switching to EVs will push more of the plebs off the roads and onto public transport, which will make driving a far more agreeable experience for those sitting pretty at the top of society. It isn't right, IMHO, but that seems to be the way of things in Britain.
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** On Topic **

I agree that there probably won't be a short/medium term reduction in platinum demand. It is a fantastic catalyst in so many chemical reactions and will be an essential requirement for exhaust systems, fuel cells and energy storage for decades to come.

I made two purchases today that were logged as 'sell' on the HL website.