Member Info for Chatmandu

"Is this National Mug's Day?"

How many cards did you receive in the post this morning? That's probably your biggest clue.

With regards to the possibility of shorting. We're seeing big daily drops during the day and then price recovery in the afternoon. That does tend to correlate with shorters closing their positions towards the end of the day.

Why aren't we seeing any shorting declarations? Can shorting positions, under the 0.5% declaration threshold, move the share price by this much (5% today at time of writing)? Do positions only need to be declared if they still exist at the close of business?

Is there anybody from a trading background that can shed some light on this?

I agree completely with regards to PGM prices. I just can't understand why a company with record results, that are already in the bag due to historical PGM prices, is currently taking a hammering. You'd think people would be piling in with the anticipation of a special dividend and soaring share price.

I'm still waiting for a chunk of cash to be transferred to my dealing account. Once that has been completed, I think I'll buy more SLP - maybe a big chunk at whatever the day price is and then additional smaller purchases to average things out.

@LuckyLuciano

In the novel 'Around the World in 80 Days' there is a clue to the ending when Phileas Fogg is in Italy. The Italian clocks were 24 hour models, whereas the UK clocks were 12 hour models.

A stopped clock in the UK would be correct twice a day, whereas an Italian 24 hour clock would only be correct once per day.

I certainly wasn't targeting you with that comment.

I've been investing since June 2010 when I made an initial £1000 purchase of BP at 360p during the depths of the Deep Water Horizon fiasco. I initially only used an ISA, but sold my holdings to finance the deposit for my house. I then switched to investing in my SIPP because the tax breaks as a 40% taxpayer were too good to ignore.

I took a year out from investing during the first year of the pandemic - the sea of red was too depressing and I made the mistake of panic selling the majority of my holdings for a loss. I decided to hold cash and bonds and, on reflection, did that for far too long - I was expecting far more job losses and a much bigger hit to the global economy.

I am currently invested in:
- Global ITs for non-UK exposure.
- Some UK ITs for property.
- UK accumulation trackers for FTSE100 and FTSE250.
- SLP and JLP are currently my only company specific shares - SLP being 4-5x the size of JLP.

If it hadn't been for SLP saving my bacon, I'd have been very underwater in comparison to January 2020. As it is, I'm roughly even/a bit down (probably a fair bit down given SLP's current share price).

I took the bull by the horns (investing had started to become a dark cloud / mental block in my mind) and bought back into the market at the end of June 2021. That may have been a mistake due to overall market levels, but I felt the need to take action.

As a newly reanimated market participant, I came here seeking some in depth knowledge with regards to the reasons for the current share price weakness. What I've found is rather chaotic!

@Cartlemare - I've already provided a screenshot of my dealing account which shows my SLP holding. Why certain people are convinced that I'm attempting to tank the share price is, from my perspective, a mystery. As I said in the other thread, perhaps it's time to take a break from the paranoia powder?

Hi ic52,

I'm sorry you've found yourself in this position. Panic selling is rarely the answer. I was seriously 'down' in early 2020, but held my nerve and things resolved themselves. I'm currently holding with the intention of buying more because I think that SLP is currently undervalued. The forthcoming results should, hopefully, result in a bounce back.

@Quiggers52 - I certainly appreciated your input and the time you took to answer my questions. Thank you.

@Guvvi - You've certainly not offended me. I'm not actually offended by any of the responses *I've* received - 'bemused' would be a better description of my emotions, but I agree with Quigger's earlier comments regarding Velo's 'na-zi' insult. Not cool. Not cool at all.

I've repeatedly asked for the input of other people. Help and advice has generally been very forthcoming, but has resulted in accusations of nefarious intent from others.

"The Shemale certainly loved your alternative 140 valuation and zeroed in on it with some glee."

I presume that insult* was directed at me. If we're descending into the gutter, let me lay my cards on the table.

I think that charts are completely worthless for predicting the future performance of a share. Your own predictions, from earlier this month, have (so far at least) been completely wrong.

"Thank Goodness August is unaffected. I expect the algo's to settle down by mid July so will update mid month for July.

9.6% gain for July is acceptable, is it not? (into the 130's)
- as it still leaves mega, knock-your-socks-off-August unaffected."

You're still persisting with predictions regarding the share price, which is certainly brave:
- If you're wrong, you lose credibility. Also, given your hissy fits and insults, you're opening yourself up to public ridicule and 'told you so' retorts for the rest of time.
- If you're right, it doesn't actually prove anything - i.e. it's a coincidence. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day (only once in Italy).

With regards to my apparent 'love' of the 140p valuation, I asked for other people to contribute their ideas. Two people came up with near identical DCF valuations. I then asked if we needed to correct for in country risk and a value of 140p was suggested. I then asked for clarification on how that value would be used by that person.

Does that equate to 'love' or 'glee'? I'll let other people decide.

It is strange how a free exchange of ideas becomes something sinister to so many people on this board. You really do need to stop snorting that paranoia powder and perhaps start opening up your mind to new ideas and outlooks.

* please try harder in future.

It does seem crazy cheap at the moment. I wish I could understand why.

If it is being actively shorted, the positions must be under 0.5% because no short positions are being declared by the FCA. Perhaps there are multiple short positions, that are all deliberately under the threshold? Does anybody know what the regulatory position is for that situation? Do the FCA add up the different short positions and declare that x% of shares are being shorted or are declarations only made on a 'shorter by shorter' basis?

Even if the falling share price is due to a shorting attack (there's no evidence that it is), it doesn't explain why SLP is being targeted. I can only think of two motives:
- The shorters consider the share to by overvalued and are expecting a major drop in share price (ideally bankruptcy so that they don't have to buy back the shares and return them to the people they've borrowed them from).
- This is an attempt to lower the share price to increase their positions at a cheaper price - e.g. shake out those people with automatic stop losses and take ownership of their shares at a discount.

I'm holding and may buy more.

That's quite the tantrum.

There are currently no declared short positions above 0.5%.

@Quiggers52

Thanks for taking the time to share your spreadsheet formulae. I'll try and recreate your calculations and see if I arrive at the same output.

@Velo

I'm not sure why you've created a new thread for your input. This is exactly the type of debate/input that I'm interested in.

To be fair to bangrak and Quiggers52 they produced multiple valuations and DCF was just the one that *I* picked out as being the same for both their analyses. They never claimed that DCF was a definitive valuation method or that it was the correct method to use.

Do you have a calculated 'fair share price' that you're willing to share?

The big boy investors have dedicated teams that calculate these things. We, as a 'team' of small investors, need to bounce ideas off each other and attempt to beat 'the market'.

Please share your thoughts and let's see where we end up. Surely, that's the best approach?

Thanks for clarifying.

I think I need to up my game in terms of analysis. If either of you are happy to share your knowledge or calculation methodology, I'd really appreciate it.

In terms of intrinsic value, is that just to be used for determining if the share is currently undervalued/overvalued or is it something you'd use in sell decisions - e.g. share price is over 140p, so you've achieved your idea of fair value and would be mindful of selling?

Quiggers52 and bangrak have both arrived at almost exactly the same DCF valuation of 175/176p.

Do we then need to apply a discount to take account of the risk associated with operating in South Africa? JP Morgan have predicted a contraction of 3% of GDP in Q3 due to the recent unrest. This contrasts with the predicted 1.1% growth prior to the trouble.

I expect the big boys have factored this risk into their valuations, so we may see limits to the maximum share price that can be achieved - i.e. they won't overpay for a 'risky' asset.

Any ideas? Is the country risk mitigated by the potential rise in PGM prices? Can we agree on a percentage value?

@bangrak

Do your figures account for the cash reserves? Do they need to be added to your calculated share price?

@Drillspark

I can't see a trade for 100k, but I don't pay for the data. There was, however, a 50,000 trade at 100p at 16:08:14, 16/07/21.

That's a matter of record that anybody can see for themselves. Why are you so threatened by people posting information into this thread? All the analysts, market makers, hedge funds, day traders, etc., have access to that information. Taking a head in the sand approach isn't going to make it go away. What exactly do you think the danger is? Why wouldn't/shouldn't an owner comment on that? I'm an owner and I really don't see the problem.

I find the paranoia on this board astonishing. The attitude that only good news would ever be posted by owners is the mentality of a six year old.

There seems to be quite a few people spreading fear about hedge funds shorting SLP.

I've found this site and there are, apparently, no short positions above 0.5%

https://www.shortdata.co.uk/company.php?isin=BMG864081044

I'd be wary of listening to those people spreading fear of shorters. They could very well be the people looking to impact the share price with their fearmongering - 'The big bad hedge funds are going to steal your profits'.

@Scoobydoo321

Thanks for posting the link and obviously good news that the worst appears to be over. It seems like it's been pretty major if it is predicted to cause a 3% contraction vs what might have been 1.1% growth in Q3 (4.6% annualised) - http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=14423 .
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"Wall Street bank JPMorgan said the unrest would force South Africa's economy to contract by 3% in the third quarter and drag down full-year growth. read more

The head of the armed forces, Lieutenant General Rudzani Maphwanya, addressing soldiers in Alexandra, Johannesburg, said: "It is no longer just thuggery, this is economic sabotage...It is a threat to our people so you have to restore that freedom.""
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The article also mentions disruption to food and fuel supplies have been constraining supply chains, but the backlog of shipping has been resolved. Let's hope those problems are resolved fairly quickly.