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I'd say it's a general flight to safety due to Afghanistan. It also might possibly be highlighting how quickly situations can change. Clearly Afghanistan and the Taliban are an entirely different situation to the unrest in South Africa, but it might have freaked out some investors - e.g. 'if things can change that quickly there, maybe it can happen here' type thinking.

Markets have very short memories, so I expect it will be forgotten by October.

In other news for my portfolio, JLP down almost 10% today (ouch).

@toptiger

I was busy earlier and I've just taken another look at TSX:AOI. They're certainly on a tear since you mentioned them in July - up 12.5% today.

What is the actual nature of the business? Does it explore and drill for oil itself or is it an investment vehicle that buys shares in existing companies and proven mineral rights?

"Africa Oil Corp. is a Canadian oil and gas exploration company with producing and development assets in deep-water offshore Nigeria, and development assets in Kenya. The Company also has a portfolio of exploration assets in Guyana, Kenya, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa and in the Senegal Guinea Bissau Joint Development Zone ("AGC"). The Company holds its interests through direct ownership interests in concessions and through its shareholdings in investee companies including Prime Oil & Gas Coöperatief U.A.("Prime"), Africa Energy Corp., Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas Ltd. and Impact Oil and Gas Ltd."

What is the relationship to/with Prime? The Q2 Financial Statement mentions the 50% purchase of Prime, which seems to be providing a large chunk of the income, via dividends, for AOI. Is Prime a listed company? Are there any risks associated with the separation of the two businesses - e.g. could the other owner(s) of Prime stop paying dividends to force AOI to sell, in a similar manner to Verizon Wireless forcing Vodafone to sell?

They're certainly clearing their debt quickly. Do you have a target price? Is there still more to come or have we all missed the boat?

Africa Oil?

I read the company reports. There seems to be dividend payments to a holding company. I wasn't really sure about the relationship between the two companies or the implications of holding shares in one company, but not the other.

Luna - you seem to have picked some winners in your time.

Would you mind sharing your current holdings? Are there any that you wouldn't necessarily buy now, due to levels of past growth?

I'm not a financial advisor, so this shouldn't/mustn't be construed as advice.

If I was in your position and I need the money for a house deposit, I would do the following.

Set a stop loss at a level that will 100% preserve the money you need for the deposit. This will need to be at least a couple of pence above the theoretical 'get out' price - e.g. 92p instead of 90p.

Then sit tight and see what happens with the share price.

I'd probably set up some limit orders to sell chunks of shares at certain prices. For example:

Sell 50% at a couple of pence above 112p.
Sell 10% at 118p
Readjust stop loss upwards to take account of the profits at 118p.
Sell 10% at 128p
Readjust stop loss upwards to take account of the profits at 128p.
Sell 10% at 138p
Readjust stop loss upwards to take account of the profits at 138p.
Sell 10% at 148p
Readjust stop loss upwards to take account of the profits at 148p.

If the share price rises, you may be able to get your whole amount back and still have a smaller amount leftover that you can then let run 'risk free'.

I can see why you wanted to put your money to work, but I think your family house purchase should take priority over potential gains from shares.

When I bought my home, I liquidated my ISA in plenty of time to avoid any stockmarket falls.

Do you mind me asking what you mean by 'leverage'? That term is generally used to refer to borrowed money, but you've said that you'd never borrow money to buy shares.

CFDs are another form of leverage and this article discusses the risks.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjN5syPmKvyAhXBmFwKHU5bD1AQFnoECAUQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.investorschronicle.co.uk%2Fideas%2F2021%2F05%2F10%2Fthe-opportunities-and-risks-of-trading-on-margin%2F&usg=AOvVaw2-MAVuF2EbAnvYSV0KsrYK

@Luna

I'm in agreement, but we don't know ic152's personal circumstances or the nature of the leverage. If this holding poses a tangible risk to his/her financial wellbeing, then deleveraging should be a priority.

I am comfortably in profit, as I imagine are you. It is easy to wait things out when you're simply waiting for 'more'. It's not so easy when you're watching your life getting flushed down the karzi.

I think it was you that recommended creating a spreadsheet for every holding. I think that's good advice and may help ic152 to determine the best way forward. With a bit of luck, the share price will recover enough for ic152 to get out with a small profit and also retain a smaller holding for the future.

@ic152

Maybe think about making a plan for your response to both a rising and falling share price? I'd probably start by creating a spreadsheet and plugging in the numbers.

Have you bought the shares via a Contract For Difference (CFD) or borrowed the money to buy the shares?

- Decide upon a capitulation point at which you'll completely sell up and cut your losses. Can you set an automatic stop loss to remove emotion from the transaction?
- - Is that an option?
- - Can you stomach the losses? Would they be greater than the sum initially invested?
- - If you sold now at 100p, how bad would it be?
- - Are there any repayments required at certain price points - e.g. price drops to 90p and you are forced to settle £XXXX.
- - Is there an ongoing compounding credit charge that makes it impossible/foolish to wait things out? What would the annual interest payments be ,if you had to wait a year for the share price to rise above 105p. Is that sum higher or lower than your current losses?
- - If the share price dropped 10% would it be exponentially worse - e.g. your losses increase by 50%? Would there be a risk to your standard of living? Can you accept that risk?

- Calculate how much you'll need to sell, at what price, to break even or reduce your exposure to an acceptable level.
- - If the price rises to 105p, would you need to sell all your holdings to break even?
- - If you reduced your holdings by 50% at, for example, 102p, would it help with the leverage and allow you to wait things out?
- - Would it help to actually crystallise some losses now at 100p to reduce your exposure to any future share price weakness?
- - Is there a quantity of shares that you can comfortably hold long term? If so, maybe reduce your holding to that level if/when the opportunity arises.

ic152 - did you manage to reduce your holdings / reduce your leverage when prices were above 105p?

This article in the IC mentions a Full-year all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $2.20-$2.30 per pound (lb) of copper:

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/shares/2020/08/14/atalaya-improvements-yet-to-hit-bottom-line/

The current copper price is, apparently, $4.29 per lb.

For the majority of the past 10 years, the copper price has been above $2.20.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper-prices-historical-chart-data

Does anybody have the current AISC figures or the projected income/profit with copper above $4 per lb?

Thanks,

"The engineering challenges are considerable. H2 has a tendency of corroding pipework for eg"

Sounds like they need some PGM metals to coat the components. ;-)

Why are Liberty selling?

I'm not questioning your calculation methods (but I would be genuinely interested how you arrived at that value - I presume it is due to bullishness regarding Rhodium and PGM prices), but can I ask what timeframe you're anticipating?

Best method is surely 100p/0.4 = 250p ?

I'm probably going to keep adding - so lower prices are currently preferable. The 4% bid/offer spread is preventing me buying at 98p. If we drop to 95p, as seen in July, I'll probably buy another chunk.

Owning and operating a gold mine would be a major change of direction, compared to extracting PGM metals from tailings. The additional risk would change the investment case and I'd be moving towards the exit.

You're not suggesting that Velo and 'Go go Velo' Mark are one and the same person are you?

So, just to be clear, past performance was no guide to future performance and the graphs and implied probabilities failed to take external events into account - i.e. the price of Rhodium, quality of the tailings received and the consequent impact upon profits and the share price. Well I never.

I've bought 2450 @ 102p.

I will continue to monitor and will probably buy more.

Thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts.

Is there a range you're currently trading?