RE: Let me guess19 Dec 2025 18:23
Cheers Ian, appreciate that. I manage to pi55 off pretty much everyone at some point so this one's bound to ruffle feathers too.
Max bottom? I'd say 0.21p.
If the weekend brings some proper twists and we get a spark on Monday, we could easily see 0.3s–0.4s next week.
Feels like a lot of holders have thrown in the towel and de-risked over the past few months. I've offloaded another 500k myself, down to just 6% of my original bag now. Plenty seem to have done the same or bailed completely.
On MiCA: I'm giving it a 1% chance of landing by 31 December. More likely slips into Q1/Q2 – and honestly, I'm only 50/50 on approval at all. Banys' LinkedIn post nailed it on the ongoing costs; loads of firms have quietly walked away because the bill just keeps running. MiCA's turning out way tougher than the industry expected, and there are bigger, better-resourced players ahead of GST in the queue, some of whom I reckon won't even get the nod.
Bright side? I think they do bag the EMI – but again, that's Q1/Q2 territory. By then, 0.21p max pain could well have printed.
Biggest red flag for me is the revenue: just 1.4m usd. We're running razor-thin margins on Angra/GS Fintech, and we need 10–15x the current transactional volume to start posting anything resembling serious numbers. Yet over the last year – with all the exemptions in place – volumes have actually gone backwards.
This is classic high-risk/high-reward territory. But I'm not sure I'd even step in at max pain levels. The BOD has torched trust and sentiment with shareholders, barring a hardcore ultra crew still averaging down relentlessly, there's basically zero buying support left. And that's been the story for months now.
GLA (if you're still in) – just calling it as I see it.