Member Info for CF73

...like a twisted Twilight Zone episode...

There are a number of legends on here Earsbern, and your two of them :-)

Just to add, am not suggesting that we sit there and hope it will all be OK. The work of the many folks here has been amazing.

My point was a general one.

Thanks to everyone doing their bit!!

ODR: fair comment, can't argue with that...

See, we can agree :-)

RJ, after mapp's bigging up for T/W, am inclined to agree (indeed, am wondering if mapp is TW his self).

ODR, as long been the case, is not possible for us to see the full picture from where we are. Our limited vantage point has always made it easy for us shareholders to fear the worst at every point.

Let's put it all another way -- how might have FRR have progressed if,

a) GD had not forced FRR to Arbitration, where we know that GD have stifled if not crippled other foreign companies/ investors

b) TW et al had not been privy to the leaked info about the above Arbitration, thus enabling them to turn the screw on FRR

c) Hope had not found a way to establish a foothold within the company, coming on board at FRR and immediately turning the screw (including interfering with our NOMAD). And lets remember how they got on board i.e. via buying that distressed debt, enabling OMF/ Hope to effectively circumvent FRR

d) YA naked shorting (i.e. they took possession of shares they were not as yet permitted to (to short FRR).

That's a hell of a lot of cr ap flying at FRR.

Am all for transparency, accountability, integrity, but I can forgive FRR for not putting all this on the table. Dealing with all this required time - time which they had to buy themselves; time they would not have had if they'd spilt their guts to shareholders.

As far as am concerned, FRR were meant to have been sunk already. After everything that's said and done, however rough it still appears, no-one can say for certain this is finished. No evidence anywhere to confirm this.

That really is a good spot degrasse!

There is some good stake building going on here. Combined with the overhang cleared and Circum news due, this will be picking sharp from here.

Good luck all!

“Outrider Management LLC, a California-based investment firm, has asked Georgia Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia to award it the license to produce oil and gas from Block 12 in the country's Karu Basin.”

There is absolutely no way GG/ GD are in a position to entertain such an idea, particularly as we’ve already undergone international arbitration. There is no route/ precedent for OMF obtaining Block 12 in this way. Sheer desperation.

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“Georgia sued Frontera for breach of contract and won a favorable ruling from an international arbitration court in the Netherlands in April.”

I continue to go by the ZM/ FRRs statement that only 12 of the 14 claims were approved in favour of GD. Had the ruling been substantively in favour of GD, would’ve been lights-out already.

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“Georgia held off reclaiming its drilling rights and ending its contract with Frontera after objections were raised by several American political leaders, who suggested the arbitration ruling held "geopolitical implications" for relations with the U.S., from which it derives aid.”

OMF is now pitting himself against the US establishment. In other words, OMF asking GD either support Hope et al or they go with formal US establishment pressure…(…err…OK…)…

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“Outrider, a responsible American company with expertise in emerging market investments and a history in oil and gas.”

‘…responsible’?

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“Outrider has long been the victim of Frontera's business practices and prays…”

Praying or begging…

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“Hope said he looked forward to discussions with the Georgian government to seek a resolution that works for both sides.”

There is no acceptable/ founded basis for such a discussion and none that would hold up to formal scrutiny before courts/ arbitration, particularly where such a discussion attempted to lead/ led to material actions. And since have gone through one arbitration process already, is not wise for GD to do anything other than see it out, as per whatever is being agreed between FRR and GD right now.

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While the world – including GD – remains thoroughly corrupted, there is NO reasonable basis/ acceptable due process that would allow GD to consider this. As plenty of others have said, this is desperation. Is understandable why holders, in the depleted state we are in, might worry over it. But OMF are a remote third-party passenger in this.

Indeed, if ZM has left the FRR board as part of a settlement agreement, as some/ many think, then for OMF, is already too late - and perhaps why we see this last-ditch pleading by OMF.

Good luck all!

30million bought in quick succession (3 x 10m buys)...

Well said badeli!

AFC were the largest shareholder until Scott Fletcher surpassed them, with this morning's announcement.

Combine these two with CMEC/ Chinese state, and we see the enormous backing that NCCL has.

NCCL a bargain right now.

Added to the good news about Scott Fletcher becoming the largest shareholder at NCCL, came across this. This is a live/ very current example of what AFC (Africa Finance Corporation - our second largest shareholder), is able to do and, I suspect, is waiting to do, once NCCL move forward to FC and ultmate investment in the live Noncdezi Coal to Power project (article from 8th Oct 2020):

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https://www.miningreview.com/energy/danakali-appoints-aggreko-as-power-contractor-at-colluli/

[...]

"Development Finance Institutions, Africa Finance Corporation and African Export Import Bank (Afreximbank), have obtained formal credit approval to provide CMSC with US$200 million in senior debt finance. The credit documentation was executed in December 2019, allowing drawdown of CMSC senior debt on satisfaction of customary conditions precedent."

"This represents the majority of funding required for the development and construction of the Colluli. AFC has also executed a subscription agreement to make a US$50 million strategic equity investment in Danakali. The receipt of the first tranche of US$21.5 million allowed commencement of the development."

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This live example is an excellent window in on how AFC can/ will be of very practical support, in the capital funding of the project.

Good luck all!

Right now, the focus for me is Circum. Those articles are very recent and show there is huge appettite for Potash developments in Ethiopia. They have brokered peace deals because of Potash - what does that tell us?

What was holding back investment, and likely - specifcially - preventing Circum moving forward, were the issues around security, war etc. No-one would want to invest with that going on. $800m is no small amount.

With the peace deals, the investment climate has changed dramatically. Things are moving at this very minute - it is a live situation. Circum is now free, unhindered by previous blockages, move forward.

As mentioned, PREM continue to expect news this month.

And this is the link to the article from September 16, 2020, wlateith that 'peace deal' excerpt (late-evening mistakes etc):

"Plaut added that one of the great drivers of the peace deal was a large untapped deposit of the compound potash, which contains potassium, that straddles the border and is currently being developed by Danakali, an Australian mining company."
https://www.voanews.com/africa/ethiopia-eritrea-peace-deal-little-show-analysts

This is the link to the article from Oct 8th 2020, called 'Danakali appoints Aggreko as power contractor at Colluli'

https://www.miningreview.com/energy/danakali-appoints-aggreko-as-power-contractor-at-colluli/

Rad, current value of our Circum stake is $6.2m (against a present market cap of only £7m - crazy!).
https://www.investegate.co.uk/premier-african-min--prem-/rns/final-results/202009301807146717A/

Where the SP goes depends on what news we get. If we get news of IPO or sale, then you could imagine SP heading to 0.20p (for starters). I do belieev there is solid progress in Ethiopia on Potash, however. Conditions are now right for investment and investment is happening :-)

Below is an extract from a recent (if somewhat critical) article:

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"Plaut added that one of the great drivers of the peace deal was a large untapped deposit of the compound potash, which contains potassium, that straddles the border and is currently being developed by Danakali, an Australian mining company."
https://www.investegate.co.uk/premier-african-min--prem-/rns/final-results/202009301807146717A/

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In short, Eritrea and Ethiopia have been embroiled in confilct, preventing investment and development. Peace was forged particularly to develop these very Potash opportunities (wow, hey - that's how key Potash is to development in that region!)

Now, while that article (from just a few weeks ago), is critial, asking about what progress has been made, the next more recent article (from Oct 8th 20), demonstrates significant progress:

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Danakali appoints Aggreko as power contractor at Colluli

[...]

"Development Finance Institutions, Africa Finance Corporation and African Export Import Bank (Afreximbank), have obtained formal credit approval to provide CMSC with US$200 million in senior debt finance. The credit documentation was executed in December 2019, allowing drawdown of CMSC senior debt on satisfaction of customary conditions precedent."

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We see by the above, now, that things are actually moving, funding is being found and agreed. In this case, taking the AFC, they are the largest private investment fund in Africa, specilaising in infrastructure and dveelopmet programmes across Africa,

As the first article epxlains, peace was struck to enable these projects to happen. I can imagine that till now, such funding was not securable owing to confilct and instability. Can imagine how investors were explaining to the Ehtipian and Eritrean authorities - 'how do you expect us to invest, to bring these projects online, when you guys are at war?!'

Put another way, how can Ethiopia be telling Circum to get on with it when investors won't touch the place for regional insecurity and uncertainty?

Well, it seems the respective governments/ factions have been listening, as they have struck peace deals and projects (judging by Danakhali) can now move forward. And if AFC is now prepared to fund Danakhali, you can bet the Chinese are looking at Circum's project very seriously -- and the conditions now seem right for agreements and announcements.

With PREM. Communication was short but clear. They very much expect news on Circum near term/ this month.

Is interesting to note the progress made in Ethiopia/ Eritrea - Potash is driving political moves and conditions massively improving out there i.e. Danakhli, the other nearby project is moving quickly, with various funding being agreed. I can see this progress and confidence helping Circum efforts towards IPO/ sale etc finally unlocking value here. Can certainly see how Circum/ Chinese (and other investors) would have told the respective governments and groups that political stabilisation was necessary to improve the investment climate and that is what has been happening (peace talks/agreements and subsequent funding coming in).

Massive upside from here, little by of downside, in my book, whether or not you want to hold or trade.

Good luck all!

Apologies, copy and paste on earlier personal comms went wonky.

It should have read something like,

Official comms have pointed strongly to news on Circum this month. I have had contact with company this morning. On the question of Cicum news this month, I have been informed they "...expect something on Circum." (Their words, and in line with official comms). Was a short but emphatic response.

Just to add, and as another poster here has explained, when all the other 40-odd EPO applications have also been held up, not sure how we can blame PREM as being singularly inept, on the basis of EPO as a measure. Yes, if we look at everything, over the last 3 years, then for sure, a proper mess. The company has failed on its mission and its LTHs. However, from these levels, upside remains huge. Confirmation of Circum news still expected this month will do for me :-)

Good luck all!

I continue to hold and add.

Official comms have pointed strongly to news on Circum this month. I have had contact with company this morning. On continue to "...expect something on Circum." (Their words, and in line with official comms). Was a short but emphatic response.

Looking forward to news.