Member Info for CF73

Great post BENJAN1.

And is interesting you say that, about Scott - was thinking the very same thing.

Scott Fletcher has not invested to take up his 17.32% stake in the company on the basis of NCCLs Solar and Energy Storage programme. His massive holding is driven by his interest in the return available from the main project. And would add, getting to 17% + would require a serious degree of confidence and even certainty.

Some of that confidence is available to the rest of us, if we triangulate together all the news and info there is in the background.

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- World Bank, Norway and Germany have already approved funding for the Moz-Malawi Interconnector Line and Substation running through right where our project is. Would they approve funding without assurances that there would be power carried by the Line by a given time?

- Tender Process for building the infrastructure are underway – see HammerPhil’s posts about EDM and CMEC, tendering etc. Excellent sleuthing from HapperPhil!

- There is a PPA between Mozambique and Malawi, to carry power through the Moz-Malawi Interconnector Line, from the Matambo substation, right where we are.

- The Transmission study, in which NCCL inputted significantly.

- Where, according to Hanno
“…other power plants that were looking to be developed at the time we last did the [transmission] study, have fallen away.”

- I would also look to HammerPhil’s posts – he has done extremely good sleuthing, around EDM and tenders for infrastructure work.

- Moz Integrated Power System Master Plan, produced Nov 2018, shows 300MW from Tete-derived coal by 2023; another 300MW to come on line 2026; then 300MW in 2034, and the final 300MW in 2038 – making a total 1200MW.

For the first 300MW, they got to start building soon, if that power is meant to be on stream by 2023. I see FC sooner than some folks think. Tariff being sensitive, informing other values. Along with other matters (see HammerPhil’s posts).

Finally, what a World Bank representative explained to me, is the massively telling. He said in an email correspondence:

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“The Moz-Malawi interconnection […] The project is connecting Matambo substation in Tete, central region of Mozambique to Malawi.”

“Power to be evacuated from Matambo substation is provided by sources of energy in Tete region. Both government of Mozambique and Malawi have already signed a power purchased agreement for energy between the two countries.”

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This project is happening. But for understandable reasons (i.e. due process, competition, price/ value sensitive details etc.), NCCL (and partners) cannot just come out and tell us. Is not that simple.

This is a massive project. Huge news coming, in my view.

Process of triangulation - looking at everything we know in and around the main project - points to the main project absolutely happening. They need financial Close sooner (or an outright sale even) if they are to be able to start building in time to have power available, as per Integrated Power System Master plan, and Power Purchase Agreement between Moz and Malawi, where the power Malawi is to receive is to be carried from Tete region, form the Mutambo substation (where we basically are).

On sale of power to Malawi, I can imagine that this is a major part of the plan/ incentive for CMEC, given they will be investing a significant proportion of the neecssary capital and taking on the risk.

We should be hearing further updates within 4 weeks -- could be any time, in other words.

We can't avoid the drop. We know there is a short wait, possibly 3 or 4 weeks, though that being a lifetime on AIM. SP drop was inevitable. Got to ride it out.

Has been said certain quarters, that there will be updates in the coming weeks/ within 4 weeks. The company know that holders are mainly - if not solely - interested in the main project. My view is, is that we should be hearing this month, on the main project

Indeed, and appreciating your input Hammerphil, thanks!

Funding of NGP at Subsidiary level took place largely because existing shareholder base were a) less interested in the Solar/ Energey storage option, concerned, and rightly, more about the main project, and b) didn't want to be diluted as a result of funding of programmes other than related to the main project. If they needed to rasie funds, for NGP/ GridX, then this was the only way, I guess, given the resistance - even if not clear what the implicatons are for the rest of us. But, as wel all know, the main project is what really counts here. Whatever is going with NGP, however complex or messy, as far as I can tell it has no bearing on the main project. And when that comes in, we will be less worried about NGP.

By accounts, it seems we have more updates in the coming weeks/ next 4 weeks, which is great to know, provided it is about the main project. News this month, then, and it needs to be about the main project - nothing else will do for me, as am sure is the case for most other LTHs.

Good luck all!

On whether or not CMEC are interested, more generally, in Solar, energy storage, the below shows they have a more general appettite:

"China Machinery Engineering Corporation(CMEC) and CATL- KSTAR have signed a global strategic cooperation agreement for energy storage business recently."
https://www.pv-magazine.com/press-releases/cmec-and-catl-kstar-signed-a-strategic-cooperation-agreement/

"CMEC to build 2-GW solar park in Abu Dhabi"
"December 30 (Renewables Now) - China Machinery Engineering Corp (HKG:1829), or CMEC, is the general contractor for the 2-GW Al Dhafra photovoltaic (PV) project in Abu Dhabi under a USD-1-billion (EUR 814.5m) contract."
https://renewablesnow.com/news/cmec-to-build-2-gw-solar-park-in-abu-dhabi-726427/

So much of power generation is heading in this direction. Would be criminal for NCCL not to make a move -- and they are. They are in a strong position, with preexisting country knowledge and networks, and links with major partners. Is a major step company talking about near term revenue, and this is what we are speeding towards!

Is worth remembering that CMEC have stepped into this sector too. This, in theory, means, we get into a position to be bought out completely.

#NCCL Great progress wth 'Ncondezi Green Power', 'remobilised construction works' & nondilutive bridging loan

"...is an innovative, new high growth sector which complements our baseload power project and one in which we can become market leaders in a relatively short time frame"

And crucially,

"This is the first of our pipeline of green energy C&I assets to near completion and is expected to provide near term revenue for the Company."

Given what has gone into the project and surrounding matters, I don't see this as a binary bet, not in the least bit.

And by surrounding matters, I am talking about interconnector infrastructure. That is approved, with funding in agreed and in place. By this point, a delay does not make it a binary situation.

We invest on our research. The more research you do, the more you mitigate risk. I have done enough research to know this is not a binary investment play. We have seriously large players here - significantly larger than we see usually on AIM - all materially involved:

1. CMEC/ Chinese State, with binding JDA, Historic Costs news out, with CMEC bidding for infrastructure development programmes in Mozambique, related to and outside of our joint project.

2. Norway, Germany and World Bank, have just agreed to and made available $127m for that Interconnector Line and Substation, running through our area, right next to us, literally.

3. Malawi State dependent on the power coming through that Interconnector Line -- where there is already a power purchase agreement between Mozambique and Malawi, which the World Bank knows about – and am confident that the WB and other donors would have needed quite a number of assurances before agreeing to that funding.

4. EDM Integrated Power System Master Plan, showing 300MW in place by 2023, another 300MW by 2026; the 300MW by 2034 and 300MW by 2038 - all derived from coal form Tete, where we have seen how that interconnector/ substation goes literally through where our project is; where NCCL produced the Transmission Study.

Confident we will be hearing positive soon.

Agreed Chris.

Worth remembering, too, that Scott Fletcher has share options (2.5million) at exercise prices of 3p when SP is over 5p; exercise price of 5p when SP is over 7.5p; annd exercsie price of 7.5p when SP is over 10p. And that he needs to show that he owns at least 65million shares by/ at the time of their excerising.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/director-share-option-grants---replacement/202011130840012529F/

https://www.investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/director-share-option-grants---replacement/202011130840012529F/

Not to mention our Historic Costs news is in, where,

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· US$26.7m is in-principle agreed as the target Project historical expenditure

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This is money we are owed/ due back for historic expenditure on the project. That $26.7m equates to £19.8m - where the current NCCL market cap is £18m...

Bargain right now.

Our current market cap is

We have been waiting on Moz/ EDM. But can imagine that if they had gotten back, that then need checking in with CMEC/ China, who themselves are/ were pn holiday. By accounts, those who have had contact with the company say that the company is not in a position to say anything, so it seems news is definitely due.

Got to remember, if it is tariff news we due/ we getting nexr, then this is a seriously sensitive and important piece of news. So much of the value we are looking to unlock here comes is attached to the tariff. Once Tariff news lands, a lot of susbequent values will de determinable and milestones achieveable.

We nearly there, I feel. Good luck all!

Chris is a committed holder and a top, trusted poster. I take a great deal of knowledge and comfort from his posts.

Keep em coming mate!

Absolutely hammerphil1989!

Am guessing that Hanno already knows the fate of the project and even company :-)

Some good work here, from Lancaster, Caterham, Chris et al, as usual.

Lancaster, very helpfully, you said the following:

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"I had not previously noted how close the Ncondezi project is to the route of the proposed transmission line linking the Matambo substation (Tete) to the Phombeya substation in Malawi (for which formal bids for construction were recently processed.)"

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So is worthwhile, I think, remembering that CEO Hanno said:

"…other power plants that were looking to be developed at the time we last did the [Tranmission] study, have fallen away. So, it has all impacted how we integrate into the grid, and very, important that we work closely with EDM […]”

And,

“…the Mozambique-Malawi interconnector [line], that reached financial close a few weeks back, that’s a very important line, connecting Malawi with the Mozambique grid, right around where our project is located.”

From the below Proactive interview:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/925908/ncondezi-energy-ceo-updates-as-it-submits-new-transmission-integration-study-925908.html

Remembering too, that NCCL Tweet about the Moz-Malawi Power Line:

"#Mozambique takes another step towards expanding the transmission network into #Malawi #NCCL's recently completed transmission study accounts for these exciting developments ensuring an optimal supply strategy into the grid"
https://twitter.com/Ncondezi_Energy/status/1291659356841431040

The short of it, the power/ interconnector line (as Lancaster explains) is seriously close to our project, where there are no other projects in sight, where the Power Line is all approved and paid for, by Germany, Norway and the World Bank; a Power Line that we directly inputted in the development of. This all begging the question, why would NCCL spend time and resources on something (i.e. Tranmission Study for the Moz-Malawi Power/ Interconnector Line) they wouldn't bnenfit from?! Indeed, I reckon our study was needed, in some signficant part, to arrange the funding for that Line.

Getting close to news -- good luck all! :-)

I believe StarRage's post at 15:07hrs could well be his most positive ever.

Chris, can I share a link to your post in Twitter and copy your Twitter handle/ ID in?

It warrants a much wider audience :-)

Stonking post Chris! That is the LSE NCCL BB post of 2021 and will be tough to be beat rest of the year.

Take note folks.

The view of some of the knowledgeable holders, with real good insight into the company, is that news is likely to be in February. I'd already long accepted that there would be no news in January.

From what I can pick up, progress and confidence remains extremely good, and that we should hear something very soon :-)

Recent Stories of CMEC entering into the Solar/ PV and Energy Storage market -- bearing in mind NCCLs own GridX.

First is a story posted last year. Posting again as a refresher.

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CMEC and CATL- KSTAR signed a strategic cooperation agreement
July 24, 2020

China Machinery Engineering Corporation(CMEC) and CATL- KSTAR have signed a global strategic cooperation agreement for energy storage business recently.

[...]

To meet the growing market ESS needs and for a greener world, both parties CMEC and CATL- KSTAR signed off on the MOU.The two parties will take their advantages and resources to work closely to develop and explore the global energy storage market. Both agree that a good relationship will make bilateral cooperation more extensive and in-depth,which will boost the development and enhance the competitiveness in the global PV energy storage market.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/press-releases/cmec-and-catl-kstar-signed-a-strategic-cooperation-agreement/

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CMEC to build 2-GW solar park in Abu Dhabi

December 30 (Renewables Now) - China Machinery Engineering Corp (HKG:1829), or CMEC, is the general contractor for the 2-GW Al Dhafra photovoltaic (PV) project in Abu Dhabi under a USD-1-billion (EUR 814.5m) contract.

The company said on Tuesday it will be in charge of the design, supply, construction, warranty, operation and maintenance of the huge solar complex and supporting facilities. The total construction period will be about 22 months, CMEC added.

The contract comes from EDF Renewables and Jinko Power. These two, together with Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) and Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company, better known as Masdar, form the consortium that earlier in December announced financial close for the project.

[...]

https://renewablesnow.com/news/cmec-to-build-2-gw-solar-park-in-abu-dhabi-726427/

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The short of it is, will CMEC entering into the solar/PV and energey storage market be relevant to what is happening at NCCL?

Is there an argument/ basis for the entirety of NCCL - inclusive of both Ncondezi Power Project and GridX - being of interest to CMEC???

Whichever way, interesting itme indeed! :-)