Member Info for CF73

This is excellent progress. Those revenues will be crucial!

Well done to the team. They been flying with that solar project. No messing about!

That 52, 522 trade was a BUY and not a sell, as was mine.

Good luck folks!

Two things of note, for me, that has raised my confidence levels:

1. Solar project on track. Panels all up. Tesla power packs on site. Commissioning this month. Revenues thereafter. That's $17, 000 per month. A massive contribution to NCCL coffers. Future raises, if required, will be substantially lower for this.

2. Mozambique’s president, Filipe Nyusi, on Monday reaffirmed the goal of bringing electricity to the homes of 10 million Mozambicans by the end of 2024.
https://www.macaubusiness.com/mozambique-president-wants-to-bring-electricity-to-10-million-by-2024/

This bodes for our main project. Moz remains wholly committed to their energy/ power generation and access goals. This means that our first 300MW being online by 2023/ 4 to meet target by 2024 is ON!

Also, EDM require no more info from us on Tariff. They are aware of urgency. This is just about sensitive negotiations. Every party wants the best deal they can get.

Feeling rather more positive. Good luck all!

By my guess, we funded till August/ September.

However, in June coming up, NCCL commission their Solar Project, with revenues amounting to $17, 000 per month, a useful amount given the directly employed team/ staff is very small.

The Interconnector Line can be reached at an earlier point than 92km. Having looked into it last night, the Line will run c.10km of the Ncondezi Power Project, with 'Potential for shorter transmission line to connect onto EDM Grid' (taken from recent NCCL presentation).

The most recent NCCL Update/ RNS explained

"· Approval received from relevant parties, including EDM, to conduct further work on optimised transmission integration solution, which is expected to further reduce costs"
https://www.investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/project-update/202105190700060601Z/

It seems this is where they are going to make that connection, shortening the distance considerably, from 92KM to c.10km or less.

So is looking good, especially getting go-ahead to do the work!

Thanks Lancaster, I stand corrected :-)

G7 don't have a role or say in this project. Unnecessary, involving them in this discussion.

IndeeGGd G.

The sheer number of parties here and there size and weight, paints a picture of the influneces and forces at play. We are at advanced stages, where those stages involve the likes of CMEC/ Chinese State, World Bank and other key donors, State-to-State collaboratiom form Chinese to Moz to Malawi, with significant investment from China, and, if needs be, AFC, (and perhaps Polenergia too). I suspect, and strongly, that CMEC/ China have demonstrated where the funding will come from - and we know they can be trusted on this.

The bit here that remains unkown is whether they want all 60%, 80% or all 100% of the project And if CMEC want it all, then NCCL have to demonstrate that if they want to keep any of the project, that they can raise the money, in turn being able to ask for a much higher price for the 60%, 80% or 100% or whatever other amount. What we get for the subscription price, or for giving an addditional share of the project, depends upon how strong a position we can show ourselves to be in (from being self-sustaining (i.e. income from solar project), to - and critically - if we can raise investmental capital for whatever share we proposing ot keep.

Now imagine, if we say we CMEC/ China really want it all, and we say we want to keep our 40% and can raise the investment capital for our share of the project (remembering, we have AFC and am sure can find others), China would be forced to up the price for additional percentages or even to move us out altogether.

This is one reason why this could be taking time. When key news lands, a hell of a lot could be released, in quick succession.

World Bank funding for Transmission Infrastructure has been approved already. This funding is for the Transmission/ Interconnector Line and Substation connecting Matambo, in Tete, right where our project is situated (literally next to our project), with Malawi. This is to 'evacuate' (carry) power out of Tete (from that Matambo site, where our project is and the substation will be), and on to Malawi. Where the Moz/ EDM Power Systsem Master Plan identified a total of 1200MW to come from Tete Coal, with the first 300MW comes on line 2023. Where there are no other coal projects in sight (let alone at advanced stages).

There is also a PPA in already place, between Malawi and Moz, for the power coming out of Tete, from Matambo, where we are based.

Why on earth would the World Bank be approving $127m in transmission infrastructure if there were no guarantees of a power source? Why would be approve $127m in transmission infrastructure connecting Matambo, where we are based, with Malawi, if there were no guarantees of a source of power specifically in Matambo, where our project happens to be based? Remembering that the World Bank are also administering funds provided by Germany and Norway. Wouldn't all of them want guarantees that the $127m they were providing was going to amount to something? Put another way, if you were the World Bank and other donors, what would you need by way of details and assurances in order to hand over $127m for intrastructure supposedly carrying power out of Matambo, where right there is no power source (though there could be?)?

I would certainly want to there was going to be a source of power.

For CMECs and China's part, they would want transmission infrastructure paid for by someone else, a reayd, guaranteed market (just like markets for mining companies ike offtake agreements) i.e. PPA with Malawi (as well as domestic markets), and no-other competition this far in to the process i.e. why would you sink this degree of resources this far into a competitive process, over a potentially risky invetsment of $1billion?

None of the parties an tell us is a done deal because a) however complicated beind the scenes, formally, there is still due process, and b) there are still some alignments to happen i.e. tendering for trasmission infrastructure.

From what I know already, this project is happening. I don't think we have far to go. That 'tendering for trasmission infrastructure' could well be the trigger, here.

This is the Link

https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/914891569031288591/pdf/Mozambique-and-Malawi-Regional-Interconnector-Project.pdf

Its all there :-)

...Matambo, Tete Region, is right where we are.

hxulcolrdoh, am not sure why coal would be mentioned in that EDM document.

The NCCL website:

https://www.ncondezienergy.com/the-coal-mine/

Also, a recent World Bank IDA 'PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT' Doc on the Transmission Project we been talking about (whuch led to the approval of $127m funding for the transmission)

"Mozambique also has world class reserves of coal. Part of these reserves have sufficient quality to be exported, while a significant portion can be used for domestic power generation. Mozambique’s vast energy resources far exceed those needed to satisfy domestic demand (historically growing at 10 percent annually), including access expansion; the country is also well positioned to engage in significant regional trade."

Also, from the same Doc:

4. The proposed project will consist of two components: (a) Mozambique - Malawi Power Transmission Infrastructure, and (b) Technical Assistance and Capacity Building.
Component 1: Mozambique-Malawi power transmission infrastructure (estimated total cost: US$127 million equivalent, of which IDA grant is US$41 million, and IDA credit is US$13 million)
5. Funding from the regional and country IDA allocations, the World Bank-administered NTF, and KfW (through grants from the Government of Germany and the EU) will be made available for this component.
6. The project design consists of constructing a 218 km, 400 kV double circuit transmission line (second line to be strung by 2025) between the new 400 kV Matambo Substation in Mozambique to be constructed under this project and extension of Phombeya Substation in Malawi interconnecting the electricity networks of the two countries, of which approximately 142 km will be in Mozambique and 76 km will be in Malawi. The Mozambique connection point will be located in the Tete region at Matambo Substation. The Malawi connection point will be the Phombeya Substation in the Southern region. [p.51-52]

Coal is a sensitive subject. No-one shouts from the rooftops about it, when they are usig it. However, in the developing world, coal remains absolutely in the mix. And we have masses of very good quality with our project (enough for the project and plenty more available for export - as the World Bak itself accepts about our project).

The Mozambique Integrated Power System Master Plan describes a total 1200MW of derived from coal in Tete. NCCL have recently confirmed they are aiming to achieve governments targets. World Bank and other donors have already approved funding of $127m for transmission infrastructure linking Tete and its proposed Matambo Substation with Malawi - this is for coal derived power, where there is already a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) between Moz/ EDM and Malawi.

Using Tete coal is not in question. That Moz/ Malawi PPA and World BankFunding for Transmission Infrastructure prove this ot be the case.

What is happening though, and slower the hoped, by official accounts, is they are haggling over the tariff. The Tariff is and was always going to be key value. All other numbers, from projections (that would be needed to determine the Subscription Price or even an outright sale) to actual reveues and profits are depend on/ derived from the tariff, and is why the discussion over the tariff is so sensitive and prolongued.

Below is a link to a Twitter post with screenshots of the Moz/ EDM Power System Master Plan (showing 300MW from Tete Coal in 2023; another 300MW from Tete Coal by 2026; then a further 300MW in 2034; and the final 300MW from Tete Coal in 2038 -- that's a total of 1200MW of pwer from Tete coal by 2038, where there are no other major Tete coal power projects in sight, just us!).

https://twitter.com/CF73P0/status/1363762535523115011

hxulcolrdoh, thanks for the considered repsonse.

I know what you mean about whether this SP represents a heinous bargain or an imminent danger. As many others have said, there's a few things that need aligning first. Giving me considerable comfort for now, are the number of significant partners and parties involved in this process or connected in some material way. This is not like other AIM projects or companies, even if it's taken longer than expected. CMEC/ China, Mozambican and Malawi States, AFC, World Bank, and German and Norwegain donors etc This is a unique situation and is why it's not quite as simple as being under the control of NCCL.

In short, Transmission Funding approval, for transmission connecting Tete with wider region and on to Malawi (the oz-Malawi Interconnector Line), tells us that there must there be a strong understanding - indeed, guarantees - that a project in Tete must be going ahead. If no guarantees, then World Bank and other donors would not have agreed funding.

PPA with Malawi already in place for the power coming out of Tete, to be carried by Moz-Malawi Interconnector Line.

Tendering process to award contract to build Moz-Malawi Interconnector Line and Substation currently to be concluded soon. This could be the trigger...

My thoughts for they worth,

- This project has been a long time in the making as there has been a lot needed to be aligned.

- This is a Billion$$$ coal-to-power project. There are other such project dotted around the world, much further behind than ours, let alone projects in Africa.

- Transmission approved funding provided and approved by World Bank, who are putting forward an amount, along with German and Norwegian donors. Total of $127m, for the Transmission/ Interconnector Line and Substation in Matambo, in Tete (right next to where the Ncondezi project is proposed!). World Bank is administering the funding on behalf of all parties. Tendering on certain apsects to conclude very soon, with CMEC in the running.

- There is already a Power Purchase Agreement in place, between Moz/ EDM and Malawi for the intended to be 'evacuated' (the term a World Bank official used) out of Tete. Power carried on that Interconnector to be derived from Tete. Regarding that PPA, I was told of its existence by the World Bank. There is mention of it in one or two new sources, very little said elsewhere.

- I am guessing that a precondition for Chinese investment would have been that someone else pays for the infrastructure. Can be argued to come under development, and so can see how World Bank and other donors were brought in. Incidentally, I found references to World Bank and other official visits to Moz to explore, discuss and progress this transmission programme (these were over 2017 / 2018). If a precondition, can see why it has taken so long!

- Moz/ EDM Integrated power plan involves 1200MW of power from Tete Coal, with 300MW by 2023, another 600MW 2026, further 300MW in 2034, and final 300MW in 2038.

- Our largest shareholders include Africa Finance Corporation, who specialise in these projects (and successful implemented a number of power and infrastructure project across the continent), and Polenergia, Poland's biggest private energy provider.

- Back to infrastructure, a line of thinking amongst some is that current infrastructure tendering is key, with CMEC in running, and that perhaps could be the last piece of the jigsaw.

- On tariff, has been said, CMEC looking to recoup investment and generate profit based on local Moz tariffs. Not easy. So can see why a lot of other elements have been moved around to make the project happen.

Am confident project going ahead. Just a question of when the final piece of the jigsaw falls into place (and that piece of the jigsaw may not be the tariff – it may well be the infrastructure/ transmission construction contract, which if the case, they could never tell us about…)…

The comment about the 'Transmission integration solution' work points the way. NCCL know that we understand the relevance of the tranmssion side of things here, and, particularly, the tendering process in play at the moment (and CMECs interest).

If tendering is to conclude this month, then it begs the question, why this update now? Why not just do the work quickly and support of CMECs Tendering process? Was it pressure from the market? Did NOMAD push for this?

As others have suggested, by NCCL saying that "The Company is proactively engaging with both EDM and Government to reach a conclusion as soon as possible", it avoids a timefame, that timing on news uncertain but that it could come any time, opening up the possibility for folks like Scott Fletcher to buy.

Hang in there folks!

A lot going on behind the scenes, that needs to be aligned and is happening. And yes, Scott holding and adding is a sign of confidence that this is moving in the right direction (they cannot wait forever, as there are number of key agreements in place already and various processes - i.e. transmission - underway too). We getting nearer to major news all the time.

I've been here over three years. Happy to wait that bit longer :-)

Appreciate your comments Benjan and understand GGG's frustration,

Benjan, your post highlights for me how there are various connected to our main project that are not neecssarily explicit or obvious but that are material.

Looking with hinhdsight, so much of the 'delay' makes sense to me, in that certain of the things we have discussed were probably material to moving our main project on, but that were not neecssarily openly presentable to the market. These would include

1. Transmission/ Interconnector Line and (Substation) Funding, from World Bank, Germany and Norwegian donors: I can imagine CMEC/ China wanting this sorted by others in order to help derisk the investment here (we can imagine that until this, no earlier discussions, particularly with SEP, had hope of progressing)

2. Malawi/ Moz-EDM PPA for power trade; required for both WB and donors, to ensure there was an agreement already in place, so that the infrastructure could be funded in the knowledge there was a market for the power coming through it (and, particularly, out of Tete); and for CMEC/ China, so that CMEC could knew there were additional markets for the power their proposed would be generating

3. Perhaps even Infrastructure (transmission) project, going to CMEC; to smooth the way for CMEC, helping to further derisk the project by enabling CMEC to bank some profit in advance. This is a Billion$$$ project. Securing a return based on local rates is very hard.

4. Probably some other things

A project might ordinarily go nowhere. But Moz, particularly, is the subject of wider international support around 'state-building', and the region - incl. Malawi - is being supported heavily towards deevlopment needs, a major aspect of which power/ electricity.

If we look to all the parties involved here, and hw far we have come, can see how this project is absolutely going to happen. But there has been no possiblity for the Company to be able to tell us about everything that has been necessary here. And this is the ultimate pain the arse. A project that is ON and happening but moving slowly because there's a lot of alignment required, which they can't officially tell us about.

There are other signficant processes in play that mean that even Moz/ EDM and CMEC cannot hang about forever - namely, trasnmssion infrastructure, which has already been paid for by the world bank and German and Norwegian donors, and is in key tendering stages; and a PPA between Malawi and Moz/ EDM for the power coming out of Tete. What all of this tells us that there has been a number of interwoven issues, that will have made progress very slow up till now. For example, I can imagine the Malawi/ Moz PPA was necessary, for World and other donors to commit that funding; and may have been necessary for CMEC - put simply, this is a $billion investment, from which they are a re trying get a return based upon Moz tariff rates. Is hard work. For that reason, the deal here for our main project is likely part of a range of other processes (such as the Tendering for Interconnector Line), designed to get it over the line.

Am confident that we will get there, but these SP levels are gruelling. When the news lands, it needs to be straight up positive, clear and tellings us that tariff been approved. They've had long enough.