Member Info for CF73

Is not a secret that we are in sensitive negotiations with CMEC and EDM. Until they have reached a satisfactory point, we cannot expect to be hearing anything. Also, was always the case that we would likely hear again about the Solar Project before we got anything on the main project. None of this is a surprise.

That said, yes, we need to hear about the main project and it has to be news of material progress i.e. Tariff approved.

Feel strongly that today's news on the solar power and battery project is positive. I have said in various places that we needed to expect at least one more of these Solar Project RNSs before we got to got to hear about the main project (just the way solar project was moving and the sensitive negotiations ongoing with the main power project). Reaching a cashflow generative position puts the company in a stronger position more widely, including with the main project. $206, 000 annually/ $17, 000 monthly, are useful amounts (and that's to sart with - sense more in the pipleline).

We could also be hearing about the main project very soon.

I'm confident this is heading in the right direction. March 25th Update informed us,

"Finalising the tariff will unlock all the remaining milestones and while we aim to provide updates as regularly as possible, we must balance this with the sensitive nature of such negotiations. "

https://www.investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/project-update/202103250700084117T/

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This is where we are at. This is the business end. And yes, if there was an issue, we would hear about it. In the past, we have heard about it when there were material delays or issues. No different here and now.

Excellent earlier post Christchurch.

AIM gets jittery during periods of silence, especially when a company is at critical stages. But the silence is there for good reason. This is the business end we finally at. Would also say, that if there were a genuine delay or issue, our NOMAD would have pushed for an RNS on the main project. However, there hasn't been one. Can only mean NCCL have convinced them there is no issue. Instead, we have had the Synergy Agreement and subsequent update informing us they in sensitive negotiations.

Even if yesterday's large trades were sells, they were not the usual kind of selling i.e. normally, selling a total of 1.4million NCCL shares on low volume day (within a low period) would have dumped the SP on its arse. That didn't happen. So, yesterday's trades were not part of normal business ( - and more likely closer to what Lancaster has said)

This 'quiet' is not unexpected (or at least shouldn't be), remembering what the company told us in a very recent update:

"Finalising the tariff will unlock all the remaining milestones and while we aim to provide updates as regularly as possible, we must balance this with the sensitive nature of such negotiations. We continue to believe the Project is in a very strong position as it is technically sound, has a financing plan in place and able to provide a commercially attractive tariff. We look forward to providing further updates in due course."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/project-update/202103250700084117T/

Indeed extrader.

The BIG donors - World Bank, with certain German and Norwegian agencies watching - and Government-to-Government processes and understandings, will move this to a conclusion in the nearer future than some folks think.

There is a lot of work to do get the Ncondezi Power Project up and running, including delivering power to Malawi. Given there will likely be challenges in the actual building/ construction stages, they need to agree to a deal with NCCL as soon as is possible, so they can move on to the next phases.

This all brings into view,

1. Synergy, to unlock value here (regarding Tariff and Subscription Price and - you never know - perhaps a sale of soem or all of the remaining 40% we are meant to be keeping). The timing of the Synergy Agreement is critical, especially, as we have since been informed of the very sensitive nature of present negotiations)

2. Looking further back, that $1.8m that CMEC provided for the additional drilling survey at the project, specifically:

"Additional survey drilling required by CMEC to complete Chinese Government approvals for their investment in the Project"
https://www.investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/-1.8m-agreed-cmec-accelerated-development-budget/202011160937564229F/

Surely not just for working out how much is there and what quality - so CMEC can check for itself - but also, relatedly, to help CMEC value the coal deposit/ mine (for dmonestic use and export). They probably have a good fix on that now, hence - and am guessing again - why NCCL has been able to move onto the Synergy Agreement - haggle over the price(s) over whatever specific range of possible deals they may be discussing.

In case they looking in, am suggesting, please sell the lot - coal mine and the power project, along with solar project, lock stock, for >65p per share.

Much appreciated!

There is already a PPA in place for power trade/ sharing between Malawi and Moz, with this Interconnector a key practical element.

As others have said, there is a lot going on in the background. Following all that, joining the dots, should show that we are headed towards a positive outcome and in the near future -- all in my opinion, of course.

Good work garykc!

I can't buy any more without literally being all in. But I am confident of a positive outcome in the weeks/ months. They need to wrap whatever processes involved in the NCCL programme with CMEC, this H1 2021, in my opinion, as they have to start building things, if power is to be available as per Moz Power Plan. That power plan, crucially, involves agreements with Malawi, as that is where the Interconnector, in particular, is taking some of the power coming out of Tete. So they can't be stalling and haggling forever, as they have formal contracts and promises to be keep to.

Agreed BENJAN1!

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"Progress continues to be made on the #Mozambique #Malawi interconnector, which runs past the #NCCL power project and is due to be commissioned in 2022"

https://twitter.com/Ncondezi_Energy/status/1382269455183581184

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Worth remembering Substation (as part of the Interconnector Project) is at Matambo, right next to the Ncondezi Power Project (which NCCL are essentially confirming here!). Moz-Malawi Interconnector to carry power out, from the Tete/ Matambo Substation. Interconnector funded by World Bank administered grant ($127m: approevd, FC reached 2019) and is at 'construction stage'

This infrastructure going ahead, means power project going ahead, in my view.

BENJAN1, sense you have a great deal of knowledge about the company and its projects. Keep your posts coming.

We talk a lot about the main power project, 300MW, 600MW etc but forget to properly factor the coal/ coal mine. Especially how the coal project has an enormous world class coal deposit, both in quality and quantity.

The World Bank Doc. on the Interconnector Project, also explains,

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"Mozambique also has world class reserves of coal. Part of these reserves have sufficient quality to be exported, while a significant portion can be used for domestic power generation."

http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/914891569031288591/pdf/Mozambique-and-Malawi-Regional-Interconnector-Project.pdf

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It mentions export as am guessing that is the intention - for CMEC to export some of it. Worth remembering, also, the agreement for survey drilling work at the coal mine, that CMEC agreed to contribute $1.8m towards.

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" 16 November 2020: Ncondezi Energy Limited ("Ncondezi" or the "Company") (AIM: NCCL) is pleased to announce that further to the announcement on 12 November 2020, it has signed a Supplementary Agreement to the Joint Development Agreement (the "SA") with China Machinery Engineering Corporation ("CMEC") pursuant to which CMEC will fund specified accelerated development works at the Ncondezi 300MW coal-fired power project and coal mine in Tete, Mozambique (the "Project"). "

And,

" Accelerated development work will focus on a number of milestones, including:

"Additional survey drilling required by CMEC to complete Chinese Government approvals for their investment in the Project"

https://www.investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/-1.8m-agreed-cmec-accelerated-development-budget/202011160937564229F/

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CMEC clearly want to defne for themselves, to enable an acceptable end value/ sale price with NCCL.
From NCCL website:

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The mine has a defined a substantial JORC coal resource of 4.7 billion tonnes and a Measured Resource of 120 million mineable tonnage in situ (“MTIS”) has been classified by the Company’s geological consultant, the Mineral Corporation Consultancy (Pty) Ltd, in the South Block in accordance with the JORC Code. This follows the completion of an infill drilling programme completed in September 2013. The drilling was focused over the planned open pit mining area within the South Block that was identified as the most economical to supply coal to the power plant.

In order to provide a bankable Coal Sales Agreement to the power plant, the mine needed to demonstrate sufficient coal resources in the Measured Category to supply the 300MW power plant for 25 years plus a 40% contingency, equivalent to 70 million mineable tonnes in situ. The upgraded resource has exceeded this target with sufficient additional Measured Resource to theoretically supply an additional 300MW (600MW total) power plant for 25 years."

https://www.ncondezienergy.com/the-coal-mine/

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Entire project, coal/ coal mine and coal-fired power project has huge value.

Would add the following points,

1. The Interconnector lIne runs right literally next to where our project is, as other trusted LTHs have shown via maps. And also Hanno has his self said:
Where Hanno said in a Praoctive Interview:
"…the Mozambique-Malawi interconnector [line], that reached financial close a few weeks back, that’s a very important line, connecting Malawi with the Mozambique grid, right around where our project is located.”
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/925908/ncondezi-energy-ceo-updates-as-it-submits-new-transmission-integration-study-925908.html

2. Where according to Hanno (Proactive Interview)
“…other power plants that were looking to be developed at the time we last did the [transmission] study, have fallen away."
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/925908/ncondezi-energy-ceo-updates-as-it-submits-new-transmission-integration-study-925908.html

3. NCCL inputted in the scoping and development work for the Interconnector lIne with their transmission study. See Tweet:

"#Mozambique takes another step towards expanding the transmission network into #Malawi #NCCL's recently completed transmission study accounts for these exciting developments ensuring an optimal supply strategy into the grid
Moz"
https://twitter.com/Ncondezi_Energy/status/1291659356841431040

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So, NCCL have supported work on transmission infrastructure leading to the finalisation and approval of the Moz-Malawi Interconnector Line, that the World Bank has reached Financial Close, for the Interconnector project to come on line by 2022, to carry coal-derived power out of Tete by 2023, as per Moz's Integrated Power System Master plan (which requires 300MW by 2023; another 300MW by 2026; further 300MW by 2034; and final 300MW by 2038 - making a total of 1200MW out of Tete coal).

The World Bank Doc also mentions that Tete has enough world-class coal to use domestically and to export (I know osme have mentioned export possibilities).

Current quite around the main project is all about determining key values, from Tariff to (imo and a few others), the subscription price (and is why Synergy involved).

Also:

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40. On the Mozambique side, this would include construction of approximately 142 km of a 400 kV transmission line, with second phase to be strung by 202529 including a 1.7 km river crossing across the Zambezi River in Tete, the extension of the existing Matambo 220 kV substation, and construction of a new 220/400 kV, 500 MVA substation also at Matambo including the installation of a control monitoring system. It will also include installation of 220 kV transmission line connection between the new 220/400 kV 500MVA substation at Matambo and the existing Matambo 220 kV substation. In addition to the proposed IDA grant, this sub-component will be co-financed with a World Bank-administered grant from the Norwegian Trust Fund (NTF) and a grant from the Government of Germany to be administered by the German Reconstruction Credit Institute (Kreditanstalt fur Wiederaufbau, KfW).

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Our project involves serious big players, the likes of which folks on AIM don not normally see. They have progressed signficantly in the infrastructure front already, expecting to conclude some of the key tendering soon, and to commission the Interconnector Line and Substation by end of 2022, just in time for when the first 300MW is meant to come on line, carrying coal-derived power out of Tete, on to Malawi.

With this in mind, it begs one key question: why would they go as far as this if a) there was to be no new power

Below is an excerpt from a World Bank Document produced for the Interconnector Project (link provided).

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II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION
34. The proposed project aims to establish a transmission link between Malawi, and Mozambique to meet increasing electricity demand in Malawi and create opportunities for trading in the SAPP. The 218 km, 400 kV high voltage alternating current transmission line will start at Matambo in Tete Province in central Mozambique and will cross the Malawian border into Mwanza and end at Phombeya in Balaka District in southern Malawi. The substation works required in Mozambique and Malawi are also included in the project (p.18)

http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/914891569031288591/pdf/Mozambique-and-Malawi-Regional-Interconnector-Project.pdf

This bit again, as is important.

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“The Mozambique-Malawi interconnector reached financial closure in September 2019 and is at construction stage. The target is to commission this project by the end of 2022.

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We know tendering to conclude very soon. And then they got to build it and have it ready for the main power project!

A significant mention of the Moz-Malawi Interconnector Project/ Line, that runs right next to our project, that our tranmission signficantly inputted into! (2 week old article, but fairly new news, for us).

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David Muchagoneyi

Harare – The SADC region’s quest for energy self-sufficiency is on course with 17 projects at various stages of development under the Priority Action Plan for Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA PAP 2).

"The 17 are part of 63 projects being undertaken in the region."

"Notable progress has been recorded in the preparation and implementation of priority interconnector projects to connect Angola, Malawi, and the United Republic of Tanzania to the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) grid."

“The Mozambique-Malawi interconnector reached financial closure in September 2019 and is at construction stage. The target is to commission this project by the end of 2022. The Zambia-Tanzania interconnector includes several components and is at construction phase on both the Zambian side and Tanzanian side where the two transmission lines were designed to converge near Nakonde Border by 2022,” SADC said this week."

https://www.southerntimesafrica.com/with-new-projects-sadc-powers-up/

Theer are a number of possibilities here, around that share purchase.

When those 10million shares were seen previous to the announcement, some holders identified these were protected trades. Like perhaps a large buy order, that was designed to be filled over time, without necessarily affecting the market/ price.

Regarding being inside, and have said elsewhere, Scott Fletcher is a non-Exec Director, meaning that he is not supposedly/ technically involved in the day-to-day operations at NCCL (though he may still be in very regular contact). This means that while he is a (nonExec) Director, he may not be inside in terms of all activities/ privy to information relating to all activities. Also, as someone else pointed out, some activiites do not have a clear timescale/ defined date by which to conclude. If this can be demonstrated, am guessing, to the NOMAD, then there is room potentially for trading/buying shares, as deemed not in a closed period (a hell of a lot is open to interpetation and the rules themselves leave room that).

However or whatever method by which Scott Fletcher has come about those shares, he has just put 10million on to the share register. Wouldn't be doing that if he weren't confident and happy to.

For me last few updates is telling. They have appointed a) Synergy (in my view, to help close out this deal), and b) are in sensitive negotiations (which they have informed us about) and will be getting back to us as and when appropriate.

Looking very good for me.

Sense there are some buy orders in place but that MMs are finding it difficult to fill without the raising the SP much further (noticed a speculative drop in SP very early, on no sells - MMs fishing for shares, my calculated guess).

Sensing that MMs are short of shares. And can see why. Just the 5 parties listed on the 'Signficant Shareholders' page hold 50.85% of the stock!

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S. Fletcher: 19.82%
AFC: 14.83%
Polenergia: 7.85%
M. Haworth: 4.52%
Mrs/ Mr Weatherhead: 3.83%

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Free float c.25% or less and very probably nearer to 20% and less. There are a few LTHs with 1% to 2.5% of the stock, with a considerable number of others with holdings close to or in the millions.

Should make for a strong ride from here, as we head towards defining news.

Good luck folks!