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I really do buy into the idea (think Alex suggested it), that if it turns out that GE will continue to supply us, then that is a massive signal the project is going ahead. That news and then Historic Costs would, as Chris says, see a serious re-rate here.

One step at a time, though. Have to stop counting the chickens before they've popped.

GGG, do agree, we got caught by the story, like it came out of left-field. While GE seemed to be discussed less and less by NCCL, we didn't think they wouldn't take up their place within the project. So the Bloomberg story really was a barsteward! Not the end of the world, but really unsettling.

Glenmorangie's earlier post provides valuable insight, for me. It presents a very credible scenario and outcome. In that post, Glen says about his conversation with the GE employee/ worker, that the individual 'realised' the [Bloomberg] 'headlines were quite severe'. But the description of what is potentially really happening seems extremely plausible.

As far as we know, right now, it will seem up in the air. It may not be like this at all. And Glen's post points to this. Naturally, we await offical news for confirmation, either way. But, at this point, I remain cautiously optimistic.

For helpful reference, I repost Glenmorangie's post in full below (huge thanks to him!):

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Hi All,

Thought you might want to hear about a conversation that I had with GE and this is not insider information. I asked the individual for clarity regards the GE announcement because they are a Supplier and contractor to our business in the UK and wanted to know if this would impact on their ability to service us.
He told me, as far as he is concerned that nothing is getting sold off (he realised the headlines were quite severe)- that the only impact is that there will be no new build Coal Power stations in Europe and the US. He said that their activities in China and India have not been affected (at this moment in time) regards new builds. I asked him about activities in Africa but he was not aware of any, probably because he is not privy to activities in that Geography. There was more I spoke to him about but not related to this project.
So now we have to work out what it means to the Ncondezi project.

Glen

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The one FACT we have right now, as far as it can be any fact be proven in the situation we are in, is that ZM has left FRR - that he no longer has any connection.

Just as everyone is asking, how has that happened and, perhaps most critically, why has that happened?

There are so many possible reasons.

As far as I am concerned, ZM did a great job preventing GD from sinking us. That was the aim of the GD. They sank others. So had TW, Hope, YA et al. It became a titanic political struggle in Georgia. If ZM hadn't a been there, we would have gone the way of the Titanic.

Perhaps in the end, and as others are suggesting, that is the reason why he has had to go. If FRR are to strike a deal, get some kind of major concession out of GD etc. you can imagine that ZM - having gone on the telly and out the boot in and stopped a corrupt, arrogant and entitled GD from achieving their goals - will be enemy No.1. They wouldn't be able to stomach him still being there, they cutting a deal with FRR and watching him grinning the other side of the table.

May well be moot whether he was pushed and by whom etc. Circumstances necessitated it. And as far as they have been able to put up a fight, SN and ZM couldn't keep goign forever.

If GD have proposed something meaningful, makes every bit of sense that GD have asked not to see ZMs smug face, and that SN and ZM will have worked it out, that he's got to step aside.

There are also benefits of this for the cases related to Hope. This has been discussed quite wlel already.

Is hard to know. ZM leaving would not have been easy for ZM. But, with the convergance of all of the above, GD on one side and Hope et al on the other, the decision would have been a necessary one in the end.

But, as always, this the greatest ever real-life soap opera and we continue to wait to see.

Given the GE issue, I would guess that the highest priority for next news if around GE.

Regarding CMEC getting worried, they just signed the SHA TS, where they have confirmed they are taking 60% stake in the project. The RNS from 22nd Sept - literally a couple of days ago - in response to GE news, confirmed this, with the following;

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"In August, the Company signed a Shareholders Agreement Term Sheet with China Machinary Engineering Corporation ("CMEC"), which confirmed CMEC's intention to be the lead investor subscribing for a 60% equity stake in the Project and acting as the main Engineering Procurement and Construction ("EPC") and Operations & Maintenance ("O&M") contractor for the construction and operation of the Project."

https://www.investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/general-electric/202009220828557121Z/

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I am guessing, with some degree of confidence, that NCCL have also been in coversation with CMEC, regarding the GE issue. Indeed, from the same 22nd Sept RNS, NCCL have said the following:

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"Should the Project need to replace GE in its role as the technology partner the Company is confident that in conjunction with CMEC it can source a new technology partner [...] "

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Indeed AlexE.

Very possible GGG LOL

India is Developing World (China sort of now breaking out/ has broken out). I would be put Africa in the same class as India.

I wrote this elsewhere:

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GEs attempted sharp and complete exit away from coal is daft, since,

a) There remains a sizeable market, when we consider that far too many countries in the Developing World have large sections of their populations with such low levels of access to power, where there are regular power outages, and not enough electricity/ power to drive development growth and investment, across Africa and Asia especially. There is a signficant market still there

b) They just bought Alstom power division. They should be phasing out of coal gradually. GE have long been under pressure to halt work around coal but could have easily exited in a phased way. They are in the midst of projects that would see their tech and equipment being used (i.e. much needed revenue/ profit)

Been following GE for a while, saw their purchase of Alstom as a critical signal project would go ahead, as they needed it (and others like it).

[...]

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We still don't know if GE sticking with NCCL, but your post Glen is giving us a major clue here. Thanks again!!

That is helpful glenmorangie - extremely helpful!

Right, this thread gives me the opportunity to post some research and digging around I did a couple of weeks back. Following Tranmission news, and knowing the World Bank had been involved, I contacted the WB. I asked about the transmission line and power sources etc. Below is what they said (I've omitted/redacted unnecessary or irrelevant sections):

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"The Moz-Malawi interconnection is [...] connecting Matambo substation in Tete, central region of Mozambique to Malawi."

"Power to be evacuated from Matambo substation is provided by sources of energy in Tete region. Both government of Mozambique and Malawi have already signed a power purchased agreement for energy between the two countries. Additionally, Malawi will have access to the SAPP market through this interconnection and can sign bilateral contracts for energy trade."

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Remembering that that Interconnector (line) and substation development programme has just reached Financial Close, with Germany, World Bank and Norway (for $127m), where NCCLs Trasmission Study had direct input, where that Interconnector (line) is connecting Malawi with Matambo, in Tete; where we learn that Moz want not 300MW of power from Tete-derived power but a total of 1200MW, phased in between 2023 (when the first 300MW goes into operation) and 2030, then 4th 300MW comes on line)

GEs tech and equipment is clearly valuable, but it's not the end of the world, the situation can be rectified. However, we do wait to see what GE do with their coal-tech power division. We also wait to see if they are exiting our project on the way to exiting coal. We know they say they will still be supporting existing plants and continuing to service live contracts.

But, in the end, what is unfolding in Moz is way bigger than GE and has been moving ahead regardless of GE. Will be great if we can keep them. But there are options available if not - as NCCL themselves have said.

Thanks for that Hammerphil. The slight delay is not too big and is just a part of the process. Interesting question though about who the participating parties may be, with your mention of CMEC in that. Very possible.

Re: transmission integration update, there may be a hold up but may be more to do with all the other news we are waiting for i.e. Historic Costs and GE specifically.

The GE thing is deeply irritating, as they'd been having such diminished role in this. And while their tech and equipment was an important, this can be 'rectified' as another poster explained.

CMEC have just signed SHA TS confirming their 60% stake. Moz want 1200MW of power and not just 300MW (as per their Integrated Power Master Plan). This where all other projects have 'fallen away'. Germany, World Bank and Norway have just reached Financial Close on an Interconnectro Line, between Tete/ Moz ('right around where our project is') and Malawai, costing $127m, where NCCLs transmission study inputted directly into that programme reaching FC and the subsequent Government tendering processes.

These are known facts. Taken a number of credible official sources.

GE had long been a increasingly lesser role here. They can be replaced and will be. This has probably been in the making for some time. China will play a much bigger role now. And they will be looking forward to it.

Sensible stuff, Chris. Thankfully we got news due.

GGG, thanks for your post. If these are not placing shares, then something needs explaining (we've not seen that explanation yet, imo). We'll just have to agree to disagree -- am sure there are others who disagree with me too - and fair enough.

Certainly feels like there are some major buy orders in place. Usually, is hard to sell here at NCCL, if the market looks uncertain and volume low and unlikely to increase much. So, when MMs are prepared to take 250, 000 shares off you, even after yesterday's GE issues, it shows MMs have appetite and that are very possibly some buy orders in place.

GGG, if you look at the trades yesterday, you will see quite a number of rounded sells. Additionally, the volume was still higher than has been for a while. Volume here is, traditionally ,actually quite low, by AIM standards. IMO FWIW.

Just checked, barely able to buy, but can sell up to 250, 000 shares. For that after the GE issue?!

MMs now collecting shares ahead of news, knowing that we definitely have positive news lined up with Historic Costs, but also probably something significant to update re: GE

NT on buying is really interesting, especially after a wedge-load of placing shares were churned into the market yesterday.

...but then market knows major news on very near horizon.

Combination of things going on, but am guessing there are some buy orders in now. MMs will have allowed some buying but will have shut up shop quickly to fill orders. We know there is significant news on horizon. Historic Costs due, as well as news about what next in light of GE (as Bladey says, a situation easily recifiable). Plus, we have Interims due (guessing Interims will be put back a bit to allow confirmation of other matters).

2. Mozambique Power System Development, November 2018: Final Report
https://www.edm.co.mz/en/document/reports/integrated-master-plan-2018-2043

Look to pages ES-4 to ES-5, and see Tables, showing Mozambique plans for Tete Coal/Power
300MW coming on line 2023
300MW on line 2026
300MW in 2029
300MW in 2030

Total 1200MW

1200MW of power, officially listed, from Tete derived coal, when we know other proposed competitor projects, that might have been in the area, have “fallen away”, when a major international consortium have just reached Financial Close (late July, 2020) for transmission infrastructure connecting Malawi with Tete/ Mozambique, “right around where our project is located.”

All of this has gone on while GE is has been increasingly less visible and likely exiting coal (probably in the knowledge of other major stakeholders i.e. you do not bail on monster large-scale projects that involve the very largest, influential, corporate, state and international actors without decent prior notice – these will likely be future partners on other programmes).

What I write above – apart from comments about GE – is what I wrote before, and none of that has changed and remains absolutely in progress. Indeed, from yesterday’s RNS, NCCL state about the GE situation,

“…it is not envisaged that such a process [of finding a new tech partner] would have a material impact on the Project.”
[We have a very cautious NOMAD – they would not allow this unless demonstrable]

And,

“All critical Project work streams, including the historical cost audit and tariff negotiations, continue to progress positively.”

https://www.investegate.co.uk/ncondezi-energy-ltd--nccl-/rns/general-electric/202009220828557121Z/

1 Progress to date

Most of what we have been discussing the past year about NCCL mentioned very little of GE (except where I thought – wrongly – they may still be in the running for a percentage).

The progress that interested me, for sure, includes the following:

1. The Mozambique-Malawi Interconnector Line
2. Mozambique Power System Development, November 2018: Final Report

1. Following the production ad submission of our transmission study, we heard from NCCL,

“…other power plants that were looking to be developed at the time we last did the study, have fallen away. So, it has all impacted how we integrate into the grid, and very, important that we work closely with EDM […]”

And,

“…the Mozambique-Malawi interconnector [line], that reached financial close a few weeks back, that’s a very important line, connecting Malawi with the Mozambique grid, right around where our project is located.”

The above comments are from our CEO. They certainly tell me, a) we are the only project in town, and b) that transmission infrastructure is must involve NCCL. See the kink below for the respective interview:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/925908/ncondezi-energy-ceo-updates-as-it-submits-new-transmission-integration-study-925908.html

Now, if we go to a recent NCCL tweet, carrying a link to a news story about that transmission line, we see NCCL say in the tweet,

“#Mozambique takes another step towards expanding the transmission network into #Malawi #NCCL's recently completed transmission study accounts for these exciting developments ensuring an optimal supply strategy into the grid”
https://twitter.com/Ncondezi_Energy/status/1291659356841431040

If we go into the story carried by ‘All-Africa’ article (which NCCL tweeted the link to), we hear,

“Maputo — The Mozambican government has launched an international public tender to select the contractor who will build the 400 kV electricity transmission line linking Mozambique and Malawi.
“The line will run for 220 kilmetres - 145 kilometres inside Mozambique and 75 kilometres inside Malawi.”
“A source in the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy, cited in Monday's issue of the Maputo daily "Noticias", said the line has guarantees of funding of 127 million US dollars from the World Bank, the Norwegian government, and German Cooperation (through the German Development Bank. KfW).”
https://allafrica.com/stories/202008030091.html

In other words, Germany, World Bank and Norway have just agreed to pay for transmission infrastructure “…right around where our project is located”; where “…other power plants that were looking to be developed at the time [NCCL] last did the study, have fallen away”; and where ““#Mozambique takes another step towards expanding the transmission network into #Malawi #NCCL's recently completed transmission study accounts for these exciting developments”

[Everything in speech marks is what the company has said]