Member Info for CF73

Actually, that is one of the positive from yesterday. A hell of a lot of placing stock was churned into the market yesterday. Means we get the various news we waiting for - including, now, on GE - we will see a very sharp rise.

LOL Just re-reading my post from last night, crazy amounts of typos.

Anyway, dust settling, and news due. Good luck all!

LTHs will know the role and place of GE has come into question. The had once been expected to take a percentage of the project. They then disappeared off the radar. I had wondered if they had gone quiet because of the background negative noise around coal, but figured they would re-emerge in due course (even thinking they could be after a percentage, when. the dust settles down - how wrong me!!)

What I do know is that GE spent $13billion on buying Alstom, being the coal/ gas turbine tech and equipment etc. It was a big bet on coal. If they are moving away from coal, they will need to do something with the division they bought/ beefed up i.e. some sort of sale. It will be a huge loss. Personally, it is daft. There remains the need for coal in the developing world. But can imagine GE under pressure from some of their shareholders. Those same shareholders will now need to accept the hit, when GE sell.

But who is going to buy GE out of their coal tech/ division?

The only party prepared to do that will be the Chinese - everywhere, whoever is able to afford, will come with the same pressure we see with GE.

Today's news, sits 'interestingly' with GE going quiet the last 9months (from a NCCL perspective). Has this been in the pipeline much longer? If so, what preparations in place as a result?

We also got to remember that GE were no longer a key project partner. That is CMEC, with them having signed SHA TS only a month and half ago. A good job too (imagine GE news without that SHA TS commitment?! -- now, if I was being speculative...). This is what matters. The Chinese are fully committed and on board. GE had lonnf faded. Only a matter of the tech and equipment. Yes, it is still a big question - but in my mind, easily dealt with (and if GE do dail out of coal, then they will sell to someone, someone who will likely be able to work with; otherwise, we will get someone through CMEC - NCCL seemed confident of this and I suspect, may have been discussed).

That said, we do not have confirmation as to whether or not GE will continue to support/particioate in advanced projects like NCCLs, as sticking to existing engagements/ partnerships.

So, we wait to see. Masses of news ahead, with Historic Costs high in the agenda!

Good luck all!

Got to say, when we had recent delay in June/ July, Historic Costs were due add then SHA TS. When delay happened, SHA TS got shunted in front of Historic Costs. Now, in light of this GE news, I sense that this GE situation was known back then (and even before), and so SHA TS was brought forward to confirm CMECs key commitment in project, to balance GE news to come. Otherwise, GE news without prior SHA TS would've been more worrying.

Is a massive thing that recent CMEC 60% confirmation and our own 40%. Now with GE news out, we can let dust settle and let Historic Costs valuation restore the SP to fair levels.

"All critical Project work streams, including the historical cost audit and tariff negotiations, continue to progress positively."

That says an enormous amount!

"The Company is in communication with GE and confirms that it has not  received any formal notification from GE regarding its future role in the Ncondezi 300MW coal-fired power project (the "Project") following the announcement."[1]

[...]

"Should the Project need to replace GE in its role as the technology partner the Company is confident that in conjunction with  CMEC it can source a new technology partner and it is not envisaged that such a process would have a material impact on the Project.  Further updates will be made in due course."[2]

_______

[1] We are in comms with GE but GE have not as yet pulled out of the project. At this point, NCCL cannot say anything more definitively until they can out a statement that van formally clarify, and that will take working GE and CMEC

[2] If a replacement is expected to have to be found, they expect no material impact. This is a bold thing to say. An delay on the timeline, if that was to occur, is a material impact, at least to me. So by that statement, seems to me they expect no delay. Indeed, all workstreams moving well, on track.

We wait to see, of course. But think news is matter days away.

Caterham, bang on, about Chinese being likely to buy GE coal division. Those were my thoughts too.

You have it nailed Badeli.

GE pulling out of sector will have been in the pipeline. I'd still be surprised if they weren't supplying tech. But nevertheless, CMEC are the partners. This is about to become a CMEC / China project.

Remember folks, Germany, World Bank and Norway just paid $127m for Transmission infrastructure connecting our Tete project with Malawi and that Moz's Integrated Power Plan involves 1200MW.

GE were has long gone quiet.

This project happening. I see GE exit out of coal as no issue. People have got spooked for no reason.

We are not overdue with anything since last updates - not yet any way.

Should say, I'll be surprised if we get all of that listed news this month. My main focus is the Historic Costs. That is what I want to see. For me, that put together with SHA TS, places us in a great position. SHA TS confirming CMECs (our global-level Chinese partner) committment to the project, agreeing to their 60% stake. Historic Costs helps us to begin to value the company, where, up till now, we've had little means to concretely determine this. In other words, once Historic costs are in, we know the project is a) happening (already the case!), and b) we can put some kind of value to NCCL (i.e. with Historic Costs expected to be c.$25m - where our market cap is c.£14m (then add Subscpription Fee and our 40% stake to the $25m!).

We have also heard, interims are also due. So, we can see how there is a lot going on. However, right now, I remain focused on hearing about those HIstoric Costs.

Good luck all!

My vote is in the wait till/ onceGeorgian Elections done.

Could the company have said something by now?

Quite possibly (cannot Yes since I don't have the full facts)

Has this been difficult for shareholders??

Most definitely! (I do know this to be the case)

What benefit for holders going after ZM right now?

We do not have the full facts and cannot know what's going on at this moment. However this isn't confirmed as dead. It remains in play, even if some have given up hope. For this reason, attempts to go after ZM, to turn the screw, are desperately counterproductive, in my view.

Great deal of sense in what you say HoopedBaron,

However...I do believe that behind he scenes, they are further ahead then the news simple indicates. For example, with the Transmission Infrastructure around our Tete plant now being implemented (i.e. having reached FC, and now with Moz an Malawi moving to get construction started), it would be appear the project has been approved before we have tariff news and reached FC ourselves -- remembering that we supported that Transmission infrastructure.

What I am getting at is that the uncertainty we live with isn't the level of uncertainty Moz, World Bank, Germany/ KWF, CMEC, NCCL etc. are having to work within. My view is that the transmission infrastructure and subsequent power puchase agreemnent between Moz and Malawai (i.e. Interconnector Line) were very possibly a pre-requisite for CMEC, before things could progress. It would explain now, inexplicably, the timeline to reach FC suddenly strecthed by another year, last year some time (under agreement of certain conditions, including the Interconnector Line reaching FC, power purchase agreement between certain respective parties etc) - to maje sure, infrastructure and significant market/ buyers in place.

There are big BIG pointers to us not keeping th whole 40%.

If there is to be a buyout, I don't think we necessrily have to wait till supposed Tariff/ FC. We may be further ahead than we realise, all in my own opinion.

A sale price of 40p per share equates to a market cap of c.£140m. Very realistic in my view. That's just for 300MW.

Now, according to the EDM Integrated Power Plan document, seems pretty clear that Moz intend for 1200MW to be coming out of Tete. If NCCL can negotiate on the basis of this, then 60p has got to be realistic.

The fact that Hope, YA and TW et al have been trying to screw us, tells me a huge amount. Then when we add GG/ GD arbitration and how TW et al got wind of it, tells me some more.

Perhaps, two question could/ should be,

1) What does the involvement/ entanglement of the above scrotii tell us? What might be reliably deduced by it?

2) How the hell has a moderately small AIM company survived all this?

We know others in a similar boat have been sunk. My view, FWIW, we were meant to have been utterly sunk, by a tried and tested formula. That formula is proven. But they haven't pulled it off - at least not yet. Must come as a shock to the scrotii. Added to which, this LSE BB remains alive (a sign of something I guess).

Analysts say 13p, that was back then, without the SHSA TS signed and without Historic Costs confirmed.

Now, lets look at this specifically:

"There is sufficient coal in Ncondezi’s licence for a series of similar power stations, adds Canaccord, with export potential as well as Mozambique’s neighbours also chronically short of power but the plan is to build a 300 MW plant, supplied by 1.5mln tons of coal annually."

a) We know that that the additional plants to the 300MW, add up to a planned 1200MW, formally/ officially stated within EDMs Integrated Plan.

b) We know that 'export' to 'Mozambique's neoubhours' is happening, as that Interconnector Line between the Matambop. Tete and Malawi has reached Financial Close (Germany, World Bank and Norway paying $127m!).

Clues being dropped all the time, including/ like, 'other proposed power plants' having 'fallen away' etc. and that,

"#Mozambique takes another step towards expanding the transmission network into #Malawi #NCCL's recently completed transmission study accounts for these exciting developments ensuring an optimal supply strategy into the grid"
https://twitter.com/Ncondezi_Energy/status/1291659356841431040

Looking like we should be learning lots very soon!

[Cotinued...]

What the analysts say

Analyst at broker Canaccord Genuity said Ncondezi’s future lies beyond its current development of a thermal power station in Mozambique and in off-grid solar generation.

The broker, which initiated coverage in May with a ‘speculative buy’ rating and 13p price target on the shares, said that the short-term picture will be dominated by the 300Mw power project in Tete.

“The cost of solar is already highly attractive compared to off-grid diesel power, and with this cost expected to keep falling sharply we see customers moving increasingly to onsite off-grid generation,” the broker said.

There is sufficient coal in Ncondezi’s licence for a series of similar power stations, adds Canaccord, with export potential as well as Mozambique’s neighbours also chronically short of power but the plan is to build a 300 MW plant, supplied by 1.5mln tons of coal annually.

[Please do excuse the irrelevant elements I've copied across...]

Ncondezi Energy aims to fill power gap in Mozambique

Ncondezi

The project is in the heart of Tete, Mozambique’s most rapidly industrialising region and a hub for power generation.

Total capital expenditure is expected to be US$1.1bn and once completed it will be one of the largest generation plants in the country.

In July 2019, a joint development agreement was signed with Chinese firm CMEC and US group General Electric.

Ncondezi Energy (LON:NCCL) will look to retain a 40% equity stake in the project.

On the share register are the African Finance Corporation, a specialist Africa infrastructure fund, and Polenergia that together hold approximately 30% of the company’s issued shares.

Solar Power

Separately, Ncondezi has a joint venture deal with GridX Africa Development with a view to building captive solar and battery storage solutions for commercial and industrial use.

GridX has 15 solar and battery storage projects, of which six are at an advanced stage.

How it is doing

In January, Ncondezi submitted an updated financial model for a 300MW coal-fired power station to its partners for review.

In March it submitted a firm tariff proposal to the Mozambican Government and state-owned Electricidade de Moçambique (EDM), the last milestone to start formal tariff negotiations with EDM, which will be completed in the second quarter.

In August, it submitted the Transmission Integration Study for the project to Electricidad de Moçambique, following the updated tariff proposal.

Final results for 2019 showed the year closed with US$722,000 in the bank after US$769,000 was booked in joint venture investment expenditure during the financial year and US$58,000 spent on power development.

The coffers were topped up with a £650,000 capital raise in May.


What the boss says: Hanno Pengilly, chief executive

"It's a fantastic step forward that we have submitted the final draft of the Transmission Integration Study to EDM for review,” said chief executive Hanno Pengilly in August.

“Following the updated tariff proposal in March 2020 this report was required and has been updated with proprietary information from EDM.

“The results look encouraging and have identified a number of optimisations which have the potential to improve transmission line cost, strengthen the grid and facilitate future transmission expansion plans. Tariff negotiations are continuing in parallel and are progressing positively," he added.


Video


Inflexion points

Finances for Ncondezi agreed and put in place
Permits agreed and construction gets underway in Mozambique
Expansion of GridX solar project
JDA timetable for Ncondezi


[Continued...]

By the way, from 29th July, this news is for Transmission connecting our project with Malawi (the Transmission system that jusy reached FC and that our study supported). Things are now moving fast, all designed to be ready for when power is turned on at the Ncondezi Plant.

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"Electricity: Maputo and Lilongwe push for early start to interconnection line"

Issue dated 29/07/2020

"The choice of constructor for the Matambo-Phombeya line, an essential component for the creation of interconnected power grid in southern Africa, could be known by the end of the year."

https://www.africaintelligence.com/eastern-and-southern-africa_business/2020/07/29/electricity-maputo-and-lilongwe-push-for-early-start-to-interconnection-line,109597833-ar1

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Damn! I forgot the biggest clue/ evidence linking this whole $127m transmission system to NCCL and all that recent , significant progress.

We should also remember, that when the news broke about the transmission/ interconnector line and Substation reaching Financial Close, and tendering beginning, NCCL tweeted this about it:

--------------------

"#Mozambique takes another step towards expanding the transmission network into #Malawi #NCCL's recently completed transmission study accounts for these exciting developments ensuring an optimal supply strategy into the grid"

https://twitter.com/Ncondezi_Energy/status/1291659356841431040

--------------------

Selling internationally, within the Sourthern African Power Pool/ Southern African Development Countries, would be a major requirement for EDM/ Moz and CMEC.

Very possible, also, the subsequent tendering docs probably lifted enormous chunks out of NCCLs Transmission Study (in a sense, our study did all the legwork). Certainly, by NCCLs own addmission, NCCLs study enabled critical, material progress on the transmission infrastructure in the region (Tete), where there are no other project but NCCLs, and from where Mozambique/ EDM (their national utility for electricity) expects a total of 1200MW of coal-generated power (as per the Nov 2018 Integrated Power Master Plan - is there in writing!).

Fair point Bezzy.

Even if he were to be removed, he'd remain a significant shareholder and so certainly not out if the picture (indeed, given the corruption and what was weighed us down in GG, the political fight back has been necessary and productive).